2023 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2023 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Update
Another day, another 5.50 winner for James Punt (as well as a 2.10 winner). Perez won the Sprint Race yesterday, landing both our bets, hopefully he can do the business again this afternoon for our ante-post bet. Check out James’ 2023 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Update below.
2023 Azerbaijan GP Raceday
We have had the practice, the normal qualifying, the shootout qualifying, the Petit Prix and finally we get to have the Azerbaijan Grand Prix today.
The dress rehearsal went well for us. Sergio Perez won the short race for Red Bull, comfortably in the end. How the bookies made Leclerc favourite remains a welcome mystery.
Will today be any different? Hopefully not but Max Verstappen will be a much bigger player. He was hit by an out of control George Russell at the second corner yesterday and the hole punched in the side of his car was a big enough handicap to keep him behind Leclerc until the end of the race.
Sprint Lessons
We had no long runs in the earlier sessions to give us much of a clue as to what tyre wear was going to be like, but we just about got to learn something in the sprint. Perez used Red Bull’s powerful DRS to pass Leclerc, but the Ferrari was initially hard to shake off. Perez eventually got out of DRS range but the gap didn’t really grow until the dying laps when Leclerc was losing chunks of time as his tyres went off.
We had a number of laps behind the safety car which helped the tyre life, but after about 10-12 laps of racing, The Ferrari was going backwards. Even the damaged Verstappen was closing in fast on Leclerc.
Leclerc On Pole
For today’s race Leclerc again starts from pole position, trying to avoid the curse of the Baku pole. His personal record of converting pole positions to race wins is relatively poor, a legacy of Ferrari having good one lap pace, but poor race pace. There is little reason to believe that this will change. The track design, combined with DRS racing, make life tough for the pole sitter, unless the car is clearly superior, and the Ferrari isn’t. It is on pole because Leclerc is an excellent qualifier.
The Red Bull is the better race car and still by some margin. They are 1.20 to be the winning team, which puts yesterday’s odds of 2.10 into perspective. Verstappen is the 1.45 favourite to do what nobody else has done here and win the Azerbaijan GP more than once.
Slow Starter
The Red Bull has one weakness and that is being slow off the line. I can see Hamilton, and maybe Sainz, having a go in the first two corners and as we saw yesterday, two cars into a 90 degree corner doesn’t work. The first two corners are the biggest threat to a Red Bull win. Hopefully both drivers will have learned that they can be patient. Their car will get them out of trouble and discretion is the better part of valour when it comes to the start.
Ferrari have the second best car but will they be pushed into having to make more tyre stops? That is a realistic threat for their chances of a podium.
Disappointing Hamilton
Mercedes have Hamilton starting 5th but he was disappointing yesterday starting 6th but finishing 7th. Russell was the better driver of the two Mercedes yesterday but he starts back in 11th place. Alonso starts 6th but both the Aston Martins have been suffering with a defective DRS. The flap has been failing to open and that is costing about 0.3 seconds a lap. It was said to be working in yesterday sprint race and if so, we can expect Alonso to be in the hunt for a podium.
He has scored three third places from three races, starting 5th, 3rd and 4th. A 6th to add to the list? Why not. The Ferraris are vulnerable to tyre deg and general fuckuppery. The Merc doesn’t look great here and this is likely to be the kind of race which will reward an old head. We can expect crashes, safety cars and very possibly a red flag or more. Staying calm and being patient can pay dividends in those situations.
Several Crashes
We have seen several crashes in the four sessions so far. Both Alpha Tauris have had big shunts, two for Tsunoda. Coming into the race they were very downbeat about their lack of straight line speed hurting their chances on this track. They then set the pace through the speed traps.
OK, so they have stripped off draggy parts and are suddenly looking good, until they turn a corner. You need enough downforce to get round and they may have just gone too far with their strategy.
The same might be true for Williams. They have a slippy car but it lacks the downforce to corner well and Sargent had to miss the sprint race after he hit the wall at turn 15. He may have been distracted by the cars ahead, but he may have been on the edge of adhesion.
In The Bin
Our ante post bet on Gasly for a top 6 is in the bin. The Alpine upgrade is said to be working. Really? If it wasn’t on fire, it was crashing or in the garage. It is the weekend from Hell. No doubt Gasly will drive a great race, get lucky and finish 7th.
The McLaren upgrade looks to be more successful and starting 7th and 10th and on any other track a double points finish would be a good bet. But this is a bit of a demolition Derby and the random nature of the inevitable crashes and safety cars makes a meritorious finishing order less likely.
RaceDay Selections
We have Perez e/w for the race which is still a live chance. A Red Bull 1-2 looks the most likely result but Max starts ahead and he will not be doing Perez any favours. We need a problem for the Dutchman for Perez to land the win bet, but a place keeps our feet dry. Gasly top 6 is toast unless we get something very mad, and Russell to beat Hamilton is going to be hard work giving up a six place start on the grid.
Anything to add today? I think Alonso for a podium is just about a runner. The dodgy DRS is a worry. If it breaks, that is his race ruined, but with the Ferraris looking to have tyre wear issues and Hamilton not on it so far, he could find himself on the podium again.
2023 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Fernando Alonso to finish on the podium @ 4.00 with Hills
Piastri to finish in the points makes some appeal. The car is much improved and he has been around 10th place all weekend. Odds of 2.10? Not great on this track, but nobody else makes any appeal.
2023 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Oscar Piastri to finish in the points @ 2.10 generally available
The Alpha Tauri looks to be a real handful around this track. The team may have been too aggressive on the lack of downforce and Tsunoda has already hit the walls twice. 56 laps with 20 corners may be asking too much.
