2023 Bahrain GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2023 Bahrain GP Raceday Update
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 Bahrain GP Raceday Update. He has already posted a 2023 F1 season preview, check that out here.
2023 Bahrain GP Raceday Betting Preview
The first race of the season is often a case of hero or zero and the ante post bets are definitely in the zero category. Today is a case of having a look at things post qualifying and trying to mount a rescue mission.
We now have a clearer picture of where the cars stand in terms of one lap pace, but the mystery of race pace is still there. The practice sessions have given hints but we will know more after the race. What we do know is that this Shakir circuit is hard on tyres. It is a very abrasive surface which tears at the tyres, especially the rears. A car that is kind on its tyres will do better, but we are a bit in dark on that, but not entirely.
Red Bull Front Row
Red Bull confirmed what testing had suggested and they line up with both cars on the front row. They only manged that once in 2022 and that was the last race of the year. Perez said in his post qualifying interview that the team had set the car up with the race in mind which compromised their one lap pace. In practice, their long run pace was better than anyone else and it all looks well set for a Red Bull 1-2.
But, this is the first race of the season and there is always a worry about reliability. Both Red Bulls conked out in the latter stages of this race last year, so nothing should be taken for granted. This has not been a great venue for Red Bull, who are yet to win under the lights in Bahrain and Verstappen is still looking for his first win here.
Ferrari Next Best
Ferrari line up in 3rd and 4th but Leclerc did not do a final flying lap as the team decided to save a new set of the soft tyres for the race. This is the first call by their new head of strategy. Interesting. The soft tyre is not going to be a good race tyre. On heavy fuel and on this surface, it isn’t going to last too long. Are Ferrari that worried about tyre wear, or is this a cunning plan?
Their long run pace in practice suggests the former as do the drivers’ comments. They suggested that their long run pace is not great and if tyre wear is a concern, it will be a problem on this particular track. There must also be some concern that bits of Leclerc’s car fell off on his out lap. Build quality?
Aston Martin Disappointing
Aston Martin have Alonso lining up 5th, a bit of a disappointment given their practice pace. It seems they were running a bit light and being 0.628 off the pole position is a big gap. Their race pace looked quite good in practice, but still way off Red Bull and a tenth or two off Ferrari.
If Ferrari do have problems, then Alonso can seriously be considered for a top 3 finish. Lance Stroll did a good job to end up 8th given his lack of time in the car and a broken wrist. How he gets on over a full race distance will be interesting, but he will be driving in some pain.
Mercedes Off The Pace
What of Mercedes? Russell, who is not a fan of this track, starts 6th ahead of teammate Hamilton in 7th. Last year, the Mercedes was a better racer than qualifier and we will find out if the same applies this year. Their long run pace put them behind the top two and on a par with Aston Martin. They are disappointed to be off the pace again and the bosses are going to have to make a big decision soon. Carry on with this problem design or start afresh and write this (and last) season off.
They are 0.3 off the Ferraris, never mind the Red Bulls. If their tyre wear is good, then they could still beat a Ferrari or two, but the Aston Martins will be harder to beat. The Aston Martin, with its Red Bull traits, using a Mercedes power unit, is ahead of the works team. Its time to ditch the concept.
Alpine, my hopes for a double top 10 finish and a top 6, start 9th and 1.276 off pole position. That is a big gap and very disappointing. Gasly is having a nightmare start to the season, slow and he then had his best time deleted for exceeding track limits. He starts last and our ante post bets are fit for only the bin.
Top 10 Haas
Haas got the final top 10 slot, but of course it was with Hulkenberg. Our selection for a top 10 finish is Magnussen in the other Haas and he only managed 17th. Their battle is to keep Hulkenberg in the points, which they did last year with a returning Magnussen. His fitness after a long time out of regular F1 driving will be put to the test but he has a decent chance. We have simply backed the wrong Haas this weekend. Magnussen just has not found the sweet spot and is finding the car hard to drive.
Lando Norris dragged the less than impressive McLaren up to 11th. His team mate a more representative 18th. Driving a poor car flat out for a whole race distance will be his problem. Any mistakes or lack of performance will be found out in a tightly bunched midfield. The McLaren’s simulation race pace was said to be the worst on the grid so Norris has his work cut out today.
Alfa In Points Contention
The two Alfa Romeo’s line up 12th and 13th. Bottas is not out of the points scoring race. He goes well here but the car was nearly half a second off the pace of Ocon’s Alpine. He should be able to fight with Norris and Magnussen, but 10th on pure performance looks to be his limit. A bit of attrition from the top 10 cars would help. The Alfa’s race pace looks OK, faster than McLaren, but slower than Haas. The Hulk vs. Bottas battle will be interesting.
The best of the Alpha Tauri’s is Tsunoda in 14th and he was over a second off the Alfa Romeo of Zhou in 13th, which is alarming, but in fairness they put on used tyres in Q2 in order to save tyres for the race, underlining just how tough on tyres this track is.
Williams qualified a respectable 15th and 16th but they will still need a lot of luck to score any points.
Race Prospects
Tyres and how the various cars use them is going to be the key today, especially in the midfield. A car that can look after the tyres will hold a competitive advantage. At the front, the Red Bull looks to have all bases covered, Quick and good on tyre wear. So long as they are reliable, they should be looking at a 1-2 finish, something they achieved five times in 2022.
Red Bull are a bit out of step with most of the field in that they have used one set of the hard tyres, which is seen as the best for the race. Most teams are expected to run a soft, hard, soft strategy so it is no great concern.
2023 Bahrain GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Verstappen 1st, Perez 2nd @ 2.75 with Betfred
Ferrari have big question marks over tyre use. The fact that bits were flying off Leclerc’s car also suggest that reliability might be questionable. Leclerc is alone in the top 10 with having one new set of the soft tyre available. He will start with a better tyre, which will give him more grip off the line and better performance for a few laps.
Does the Ferrari strategist think that Leclerc can jump at least one of the Red Bulls and then spend the race holding them off? That sounds a bit optimistic given the Red Bulls better expected race pace. The words Ferrari and different strategy set alarm bells ringing.
Flattered To Deceive?
Aston Martin may have been guilty of flattering to deceive in practice and testing, but they have made a good step from the end of last season and a massive one from this time last year. Mercedes take note. Their long pace is behind the Red Bulls and Ferrari, but on a par with the Mercedes.
The other teams and drivers are saying that Alonso is a realistic podium contender. Perez made a very good point, saying that when he raced for the team under a different name, they always prioritised race pace over qualifying pace. He expects them to be strong.
Mercedes are a bit more difficult to read. We can’t be sure that their race pace will be their saviour as it was in 2022. It looks worse than the big two and no better than Aston Martin.
Potential tyre wear problems for Ferrari, Mercedes under a cloud and Alonso bouncing around like a schoolboy. He has to be worth a bet for a top 3 finish, likely a third place finish.
2023 Bahrain GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Fernando Alonso to finish on the podium @ 2.65 with Unibet
How Norris in the McLaren gets on will be interesting. Qualifying 11th might have been more to do with the driver than the car. Things could be more difficult today as the McLarens’ long run pace was said to be the slowest of all and two or three tenths off the Alfa Romeo’s behind him. The car just isn’t ready and this is a temporary arrangement until they get the proper one in a few races. I expect Norris to struggle and Bottas, being a track specialist should get the better of him.
We have already backed Bottas to finish in the points, but I will risk the double backing curse by taking him to beat Norris.
2023 Bahrain GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Bottas to beat Norris @ 2.00 with Ladbrokes
For a more sporting price, I like the odds for Nico Hulkenberg to win Ladbrokes Group 1. It is a group of five, headed by Ocon and includes Norris, the two Alfa’s and Hulkenberg. Out of those the best race pace simulation was for the Haas.
Hulkenberg starts just behind Ocon and so long as his fitness holds up, his claims are as good as most, perhaps better. He was a bit downbeat regarding the car’s race pace, but I guess the others are too. He is worth taking a chance on.
