FP1, the only practice session of the weekend was wet and it got progressively worse as the session went on. Five drivers didn’t set a lap time, including Max Verstappen. It is important to remember that the drivers only have a limited number of  wet weather tyres, including six sets of inters. They can claim an extra set of inters if the sessions are declared wet, which helps, but with wet weather forecast for the rest of the weekend, those tyres are going to be needed for the important bits of the weekend, qualifying, the sprint shootout, the sprint race and the actual race.

I wonder if it was altogether wise to have Spa as one of six sprint race weekends? Everyone knows that it tends to rain a lot here and having four ‘meaningful’ sessions with a very limited supply of wet weather tyres does push things to the limit.

The rain was light for the junior formula’s earlier in the day but it was too wet for the F1 cars. The amount of spray thrown up made visibility extremely poor. It is hard to see, no pun intended, that they could hold a safe qualifying session in the conditions we had for FP1. The FIA  have declared that if it is not possible to hold the qualifying session today, the Grand Prix grid will be decided on the World Championship order. So Red Bull  get a front row lock out, Alonso and Hamilton third and fourth, all the way down to Sargeant and Ricciardo on the back row.

The latest forecast is for improving conditions and there might even be some sunshine by the end of the session. There is a little break in the rain right now, two hours before the start of qualifying, but it is due to close in a again with rain falling for the hour before qualifying starts. There is another break in the rain around the start of qualifying but with another 20 minutes or so of rain in the middle of the session. That gives some hope that they might get some running, but it is the visibility that is the problem and the spray thrown up tends to linger here, especially on the long straights.

The F3 qualifying session went ahead and the track did dry out fairly well, so it does look like we will get a qualifying session, unless things deteriorate again.

We have gone for an ante post bet on Lando Norris for this session. He (and his teammate) was one of the drivers who did complete a few laps and on both the full wets and the inters, so at least they generated some data on both types.

For what it was worth, Calos Sainz was fastest followed by the two McLarens and the Ferrari of Leclerc. We know that The McLarens can heat up their front tyres very quickly which gives them good grip in these conditions. Ferrari are hard on the tyres and that means they can get heat into them quickly, which is an asset in wet qualifying, so the conditions are a blessing for them, in qualifying at least. Sainz is the better of the two Ferrari drivers in the wet, his rally heritage helping him enjoy the low grip conditions more than the ultra-fast Leclerc who is on the edge more than Sainz.

Max Verstappen remains the favourite for pole position @ 1.60. He didn’t set a time earlier but I wouldn’t read anything into that. The team are very confident that this track will be their strongest of the season and their performance advantage means they can run with more downforce, bigger wings, for more grip, without the kind of drag that the rest of the field would produce with the same set up. Pole position is not the be all and end all for Max or the team, points are, so they will set the car up for whatever conditions they expect to see on Sunday, and to a lesser degree, tomorrow. They have won every race this season, but not every qualifying session.

Ferrari and McLaren are the most likely to nick pole, if Verstappen  did have a bit of a slip up. That said, if we get a wet-drying session, as the forecast suggests, it could be a case of the driver starting their qualifying lap last will get the best conditions and could get the pole.

It’s not a great session to be piling into. It is too weather dependant and the forecast is mixed. I am happy to stick with Lando and hope that we do get a wet surface, or at least, cool and damp. He is still a 10.00 shot with Boylesports as advised in the preview.

I will add one more bet. Carlos Sainz would benefit from a wet-damp session. He is a good in those conditions and was second in the wet Spanish GP qualifying and third in e damp-drying session in Austria.

1 point Carlos Sainz to qualify in the top three @ 4.50 with Ladbrokes

Remember to back the right qualifying session, but it looks like the bookies have avoided the chance of any confusion.

-JamesPunt