The first thing to deal with is the weather forecast. Rain has dominated proceedings so far and I awoke this morning to watch the F3 race and yes, the track was wet. The rain had stopped but the dry remained wet-damp with some drivers trying and failing on the slicks. Of course that was early in the morning and it was both cold and wet, so the track wasn’t clearing like it would in the afternoon. The F2  race an hour later saw a much drier track with everyone starting on slicks, but the track remained cold a low on grip.

The forecast for the Grand Prix is for mostly cloudy conditions, a maximum temperature of 18 degrees and with a chance of light showers. That chance is put around 33%, but this is a mountain range and if there are clouds around, rain is never far away.

Team by Team

Ferrari – It is a rare pole position start for Charles Leclerc following Max Verstappen’s 5 place grid penalty for taking his fifth gearbox of the season. Leclerc started from pole in Baku and went of to finish third, behind the two Red Bulls of Perez and Verstappen. The Ferrari usually loses ground over a race distance and he has a lot of fast cars behind him. Just keeping the lead by the end of the first sector will be a challenge. Carlos Sainz starts on the second row and like his teammate, he tends to go backwards over the longer distances.

Red Bull – Still massive favourites to with Verstappen, starting sixth or not. He was comfortably faster than anyone else in Fridays qualifying session and his biggest threat is making a clean start to the race from the third row. Negotiating the first corner is always a bit of a heart in mouth moment, but clear that and he has the pace to win at a canter. Perez failed to score in yesterdays sprint race and his fragile confidence needs a boost with a solid podium finish today. He has only managed that once, a second place to Verstappen last year. He started second on the grid then too. That time it was the Ferrari of Carlos Sainz who started on pole but finished a distant third. Verstappen won from fourteenth on the grid, so today’s job should be a lot easier.

Mercedes – It’s been a mixed weekend for Mercedes. Hamilton has looked very good at times and his lower drag set up has paid off so far, despite the conditions being against him. Russell on the other hand had more downforce to cope with the wet weather and he has made a hash of it. Hamilton got a penalty for taking Perez out in the sprint race and he will be quietly seething about that and being baulked by his teammate in the sprint shootout. He retired here last year after colliding with Alonso on the opening lap, but he has finished on the podium here for the previous seven years. He does not enjoy the car advantage he had back then, but he should have the beating of Leclerc over a race distance. Russell starts from eighth and he usually mounts good comeback drives, but he has been struggling all weekend. He may have the beating of the McLarens if it stays dry and a his target is a top6 finish.

McLaren – The form driver coming into this  race was Lando Norris with his back to back second places, but he has been put in the shade by teammate Piastri. The Aussie rookie has beaten Norris in very session so far and been second fastest in three of the four sessions so far. His problem is the cars set up. McLaren rolled the dice and committed to a high downforce set up. That gives a good lap time by being very fast in the second sector, but it hurts straight line speed and that leaves him very vulnerable to attack. If it rains, McLaren are back in the picture, but their team boss admitted yesterday that if he could, he would change the set up. A good result in the dry would be to hold onto a top 6. Norris starts from seventh and he just hasn’t been on it this weekend.

Aston Martin – Their mid-season slide into mediocrity continues. Their best performance was in Fridays qualifying session and both drivers have made mistakes at times. They may be able to hang on to their top 10 spots having locked out the fifth row but it is hard to see much progress on merit.

Alpha Tauri – Tsunoda starts eleventh but his performances have got progressively worse as the weekend has gone on.  Riccardo on the other hand has been competitive in every session outside of qualifying where a deleted lap time left him stranded in nineteenth place. Pierre Gasly made the top 10 ten from a pit lane start for the team last year. Ricciardo has got some good results here in the past for his various teams. Could he play another starring role? May be so.

Alpine – In free fall off the track, but Gasly was superb in yesterdays sprint race , finishing third He is a very consistent performer around Spa, a place which holds such emotional bonds for him. He has finished at least ninth in all five races here and from twelfth on the grid, he is not without a chance of making that sixth. Ocon starts fifteenth and while he to has vey good record here with five consecutive top nine finishes, his job will be tougher. Alpine were one of the teams who locked in a low drag set up on the car and they are very fast on the straights. A dry race will being things their way and do not rule out an ironic double points finish after the sacking of Szafnauer and Permane.

Alfa Romeo – Didn’t expect to be competitive here and they haven’t. Bottas starts thirteenth and I suspect that is about where he should finish. Zhou is back in seventeenth and it is hard to see him making much progress.

Williams – We have backed Albon for a points finish and he has been quite competitive this weekend, except in qualifying. He started and finished twelfth in yesterdays sprint race and sadly, that might be his limit with The Alpines looking better on track this weekend.

Haas – On the upside, Hulkenberg starting from twentieth place means he can’t go backwards. Magnussen in sixteenth can.

Race Day selections

 As for the race winner? Max Verstappen is going for his eighth consecutive race win and his third consecutive Belgian GP win. He won from fourteenth here last year and this years car is even better than last years. He is the 1.30 favourite and he is hard to oppose. Not my kind of bet however. There is one market where he does make some appeal. His job will be to make a safe start and then begin picking off the cars in front. Last year He started fourteenth and was leading by lap 12. This year, his car is better and with the very powerful DRS on the Red Bull, he should be like a hot knife through butter once it is activated. Could he do it by the end of the fifth lap? It odds are good enough to entertain the idea.

1 point Max Verstappen to be the leader at the end of the fifth lap @ 5.50 with Livescorebet

Lewis Hamilton has not had the rub of the green so far but he has looked quick. I was impressed with his sector two times yesterday despite not having the kind of set up that would help him much there. The conditions, if they remain dry, should move towards his lower drag set up. He knows his way round this track and another podium finish is within his grasp. He has converted his two second row starts into podiums this season and looks a reasonable bet to do so again. He is 1.80 to do so, but he looks a better bet to win Ladbrokes Group 1. He is grouped with the two McLaren’s and Charles Leclerc. McLaren look to need the rain with their set up and the radar say that any that is coming will arrive after the race has ended. The Ferrari is a car that usually struggles over a race distance and Hamilton’s Mercedes gets a little better.

1 point Lewis Hamilton to win Group 1 @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes

Alpine have not got a car home in the last two races, never mind score a point, but they have the right set up for a dry race and both drivers have excellent records in this race. It is a track were the faster cars can get past the slower ones and they could have the pace to dislodge the Aston Martins from the top 10. We could just go for a Gasly top 10 finish @ 2.50 but I’ll be greedy, probably regret it, and go for a double points finish.

 1 point double points finish for Alpine @ 6.50 with BET365

Ricciardo to beat Tsunoda makes some appeal at 2.90. He is the faster driver and Tsunoda struggled yesterday. The Japanese drivers head will be spinning since the arrival of Ricciardo. Some were saying that Tsunoda was a candidate for replacing Perez at Red Bull, and now he is number 2 at Alpha Tauri and looking slow.

1 point Daniel Ricciardo to beat Yuki Tsunoda @ 2.90 with Ladbrokes

Traditionally at Spa, I have a bet on the driver to be leading at the end of the first lap, and traditionally it loses. Starting from pole means giving a tow down the hill into Eau Rouge and then up the hill and onto the very long Kemmel straight. Even without DRS, it is tough to defend against. Perez and Hamilton will sense an opportunity to get clear of the Ferrari early doors. Hamilton crashed trying something similar here last year, so he may be once bitten twice shy this time. I’ll have a punt on Perez.

 1 point Sergio Perez to be leading after the first lap @ 3.50 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt