2023 Boxing Day Racing Preview & Tips – DS
2023 Boxing Day Racing Previews & Tips
Just two of the six live races on ITV on Tuesday have more than six runners, not ideal for those of us who enjoy chasing e/w money at big prices. However, we thankfully also have plenty of racing to get stuck into on the other side of the Irish Sea at Leopardstown, Limerick and Down Royal. You can get Dave Stevos’ Irish fancies here, check out his 2023 Boxing Day Racing preview below.
12.45 Kempton – Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3)
The rain that was forecast this week never materialised so for the first time in seven years it’ll be good ground at Kempton on Boxing Day. As is often the case on this card, regardless of the ground, smallish fields are the order of the day. Bar this contest, which has 8 runners, the other three live ITV races are all 6 runner fields.
The only one at double figure odds that is of interest here is Kotmask. Trained by Gary Moore, this horse caught my eye on his last visit to Kempton (18f gd). Held up, he was travelling into the race nicely when Jamie Moore just missed a stride at the fourth last and his momentum was checked. I’m not saying he’d have won with a slicker leap but he certainly would have finished much closer than the 7L he was beaten by Arclight.
Hacked Up
Kotmask confirmed the promise of that run at Kempton off 113 next time. He hacked up by 9L at Plumpton (17f gd/sft) and then he fell at Sandown last time out on soft ground. It was too soon to say whether he’d be thereabouts at the finish when he fell at the first Railway fence but at least it wasn’t a heavy fall. He just seemed to knuckle on landing after jumping it fairly well so hopefully, it hasn’t dented his confidence.
The 5yo son of Masked Marvel runs off 121 today. With Niall Houlihan’s 3lbs claim he is effectively just 5lbs higher than when winning well at Plumpton. He’ll be suited by a truly run race, which he should get with Idalko Bihoue and Outlaw Peter in the field.
Arclight, who he was conceding 7lbs to when she beat him 7L here off 116, is now rated 133. As mentioned earlier, I think he could have finished a bit closer to her so in hindsight, it was a solid run. If he can put in a smooth round of jumping, hopefully Houlihan can produce Kotmask late to land place money at 12/1.
2023 Boxing Day Racing Tip: Kotmask e/w @ 12/1 NAP
1.05 Aintree – Formby Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
The ground is softer at Aintree but the forecast is decent so it shouldn’t be too taxing on Tuesday. This race is a new addition to the Festive calendar. Formerly run as the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown in early January, it has been renamed the Formby Hurdle and moved to Merseyside.
It looks like the authorities have actually made a good decision for a change because this will be just the second time since 2004 that we’ll have a field with 10 or more runners. And what’s even better, all ten horses hail from different yards.
Fav Not Bombproof
Irish raider Farren Glory is the 7/2 fav in an open looking race. Trained by Gordon Elliott, the form of his Royal Bond Hurdle win doesn’t look bombproof.
The horse he beat into second failed to win both previous starts in maiden hurdles and the horse that was fourth has been beaten off 139 in a handicap. To be fair, Farren could do no more than beat what was in front of him but this could turn out to be a better race.
Up & Coming yard
It is safe to say that one of the stories of the season has been the emergence of Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerreiro. They suffered the heartbreaking loss of Gesskille at Cheltenham recently but they also landed a nice handicap winner there on the same day and they have already won 32 races this season.
Apart from poor old Gesskille, Iroko has been the flag bearer but it looks like they have another very promising type in Making Headway.
A winner on hurdling debut in a Carlisle novice in October, they wasted no time in stepping this son of Malinas up in grade. He didn’t disappoint at Haydock (15f gd/sft), running a blinder to finish 1.25L behind Kamsinas (who reopposes here). The distance between them was diminishing the closer they got to the finish and on this softer ground over an extra furlong, I can see Making Headway getting even closer to that rival.
The Fergal O’Brien horse is chalked up at just 8/1 so 25/1 looks far too big about the Greenall/Guerreiro inmate. Hopefully they go a good gallop from the outset and if they do, Henry Brooke can deliver Making Headway late to pick up some place money.
2023 Boxing Day Racing Tip: Making Headway e/w @ 25/1
1.20 Kempton – Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Only six runners so not a betting race. We nominated Giovinco as a horse to follow this season and I think he can win this. He has won both good ground starts doing handstands and he simply got outstayed at Sandown by Stay Away Fay last time.
The flatter Kempton track should be right up his street and this represents a huge opportunity for Stephen Mulqueen to gain a career defining win. The French raider looks like a bit of a mudlover so there are ground concerns for him and Hermes Allen has stamina to prove. Odds of 5/2 are too short for the blog but I hope Giovinco shows everyone what he is capable of.
2023 Boxing Day Racing Tip: No bet
1.35 Wetherby – Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Premier)
We had originally backed Grandads Cottage for this but Olly Murphy has other ideas. He has rerouted him to Aintree so he is officially our first loser of the Festive Season. I was sure he’d opt for this race as Grandads Cottage already has course winning form in the book but those are the perils of ante-post punting.
In any case, the longest priced runner here is just 7/1 so this is another race we’ll be swerving. Sandy Thomson’s horses are starting to run better so his Empire Steel should go well but the bookies haven’t missed him. No bet.
2023 Boxing Day Racing Tip: No Bet
1.55 Kempton – Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1)
The mighty Constitution Hill makes his seasonal comeback in this and he is unbackable at 1/8. Barring accidents he’ll win this easily but there might be an angle in the betting w/o Constitution Hill market.
Rubaud is the next best in the betting at 6/1. He’s a talented horse in his own right and he has won his last four, including three G2s. Good ground is fine for him and if the fav misfires, he could be the one to pick up the pieces. However, on the other hand, if Harry Cobden tries to take on Constitution Hill he may well pay for those efforts late on.
First Street has 4.5L to find with Rubaud on their meeting over C&D back in October. He flopped in a 2 runner chase here a month ago and you wouldn’t know what to expect after that.
Ground Key For Lee Pair
Kerry Lee has two entered here. I am a fan of Nemean Lion, he’s a quality horse, but the big issue for him here is good ground. He has twice been a non-runner on good and the two times he ran on it he was well beaten on the level in France. She also runs Black Poppy and he will relish these ground conditions.
By Kayf Tara, this 7yo gelding ran a cracker at Cheltenham (16.5f gd) off 129 on his return to action in October. He finished 7L behind the winner in second and he ought to come on plenty for that run. This horse won the Swinton at Haydock on good ground last season and that’s the type of surface he loves.
He has form figures of 14123112 on good. Yes, it’s mostly handicap form and on ratings he has no chance here but if Brendan Powell sits back and rides for a place rather than the win, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that this horse could nick third, or maybe even second. So, at odds 22/1, back Black Poppy e/w in the betting without Constitution Hill market.
2023 Boxing Day Racing Tip: Black Poppy e/w without Constitution Hill @ 22/1 (BetVictor)
2.30 Kempton – King George VI Chase (Grade 1)
We have already backed Hewick e/w at odds of 16/1 for this race. I am delighted to see the ground drying out as that will really suit. I wasn’t convinced by Allaho last time, Bravemansgame’s reputation has taken a battering the last twice and The Real Whacker was pulled up last time at Cheltenham. Shishkin refused to race the last day so he is risky and that leaves Frodon and Hewick.
I wouldn’t totally dismiss Frodon around this C&D, especially on this nice ground. His record on good or quicker is mustard but he’s an 11yo now and his best days must surely be behind him. Hewick is into 14s now and if you haven’t backed him yet, that’s an acceptable price. Fingers crossed the Shark can land the biggest race of his career to date.
