2023 Brazil GP Outright Betting Preview

After another Max Verstappen win in Mexico, we now head to Sao Paulo in Brazil. James Punt kept things ticking over with another couple of winners last weekend and he is hoping for an even better showing this week. Check out his 2023 Brazil GP outright betting preview below.

2023 Brazil GP

Three races to go and Hamilton is slowly reeling the hapless Sergio Perez in. It is pretty clear to me that Perez cannot function as a Grand Prix driver right now.

The pressure of racing in front of a rabidly partisan crowd got to him last weekend, and he tried a manoeuvre of extreme naivety in the first corner. He had the room to bail out left onto the grass and live to fight another day, but he tried to take the lead and be a hero. There was no way he was pulling it off.

Diminishing Lead

His lead over Hamilton is now just twenty points with three races to go. The intense pressure of racing at home will not be there this weekend, but his form has been in tatters ever since his crash in qualifying in Monaco. He knows, despite what his team are saying, that he is racing for his F1 future.

The return to form of former Red Bull driver, Daniel Ricciardo, will not have escaped Perez’ attention. Red Bull would be mad to keep him for 2024. They will be facing stronger challengers in 2024 from the likes of Mercedes and McLaren and they may not be able to carry a passenger in the second car.

Sprint Race

This weekend’s race is another Sprint Race weekend. That means more points are up for grabs and Perez’ lead could very well shrink to nothing this weekend. The pressure on him is not going away.

It might if he just put his hands up and decided to retire, or at least take a sabbatical. However, with another year on his contract, he will want a negotiated exit and the appropriate financial compensation, so retirement is unlikely.

There has been a sprint race here for the last two years, but that was under the old system of the Sprint race being the qualifying decider for Sunday’s race, rather than the current stand-alone Sprint qualifying for the sprint race.

2023 Brazil GP: The Track

The Autódromo José Carlos Pace is a great racetrack. It is a relatively short lap at 4.3km and it features three distinct sectors. It’s a venue that has seen plenty of classic races. It tends to produce some dramas and it is one of the must watch races of the season.

The first is a very fast flowing sector, heading downhill with two long straights. The second sector is a slower sector with half of the circuit’s corners. The final sector is a long uphill curved ‘straight’ running back up to the start/finish line. This final sector is all about power and aero efficiency.

Choices To Be Made

It is a challenge for the engineers and strategists. There is a choice to be made. Set the car up to be fast in sector 1 and 3 or set it up to be quick in the slower middle sector.

The middle sector makes up the bulk of the lap time, so it makes sense to be strong there. You get a good lap time, but come the race, you will be vulnerable in the other two sectors.

The engineers will play to their car’s strengths and the better cars, the aerodynamically efficient cars, will be more flexible. They are able to run with more downforce to cope with sector two, while not producing excessive drag on the straights.

Since 2014, the driver on pole position has won six of the eight races here, with one from second place. The outlier was Hamilton’s win from tenth place in 2021. Overtaking is relatively easy here, hence why it has been chosen for a Sprint race format.

It is not all about the car however and some drivers have gone well here.

Driver Records

It is mostly the usual suspects, with Hamilton winning three times since 2014 and runner up three times. Verstappen has one win, two seconds and a third place. George Rusell got his first and so far only win here last year.

Bottas has been steady rather than spectacular, Ricciardo has four top eight finishes from eight, Alonso five top tens. Sainz a couple of third places and Hulkenberg four top tens. Sergio Perez has finished in the points for the last six races here.

2023 Brazil GP: Weather Forecast

Rain is often a factor at some point in the weekend and it can play a significant part. The two current Haas drivers have both had a pole position here, and both in a mixed weather session.

At this stage, the forecast is for a sunny weekend. Hot and sunny for Saturday and Sunday, cooler on race day at around 22 degrees, but still sunny and more importantly, dry.

Team-by-Team

Red Bull

Everything is going like clockwork for Verstappen in the races, but qualifying is a different story. He has won fourteen of the last fifteen races but he has only been on pole for two of the last six races. Others are finding competitive qualifying pace, but the Red Bull still has superior race pace, by a good margin.

Sergio Perez on the other hand is driving like a headless chicken. His qualifying pace is dire and his race craft now equally as poor. His head is in a spin and he is not coping. Perez is lucky that Hamilton crashed out in Qatar and was disqualified from the US GP. His luck can’t last.

Average Record

The team’s record here is not great. Since 2014, they have one win and just three other podiums. They only finished sixth and seventh last year as the two drivers had a falling out over Verstappen refusing to help Perez, who was chasing second in the drivers’ championship.

It must be said that Verstappen has not had a lot of luck in Sao Paulo. He lost a sure win in 2018 when Ocon crashed into him while trying to unlap himself. Last year his floor got damaged by debris and he was only able to manage a sixth place.

Mercedes

Despite the car not being entirely predictable, the Mercedes is showing very competitive race pace. Another second place finish may be as good as it gets though, so long as Verstappen is running normally.

Mercedes are being pushed very hard by Norris in the McLaren. George Russell won here last year but his form in the last two race weekends has been poor. Lewis Hamilton has his tail up and when that is the case, Russell looks a bit second best.

Strong Track

This has been a very strong track for Mercedes in the turbo hybrid era. From eight races, they have won six, won seven pole positions and four 1-2 finishes. They know how to set the car up here and how to get a result.

Their car is still lacking in straight line pace so they have the usual set up dilemma of how much wing to use to maximise straight line speed, while still being fast in the crucial middle sector.

Ferrari

It looks like Ferrari have done enough to finish the season in third place, but on recent form they are fourth best. The car has good one lap pace, but still struggles on the tyres in a race situation.

Leclerc’s held up well in Mexico but he lost performance after the red flag re-start as he wasn’t able to get the hard tyres into the operating window. A different problem, but still tyre related.

This track should be OK for them and we can expect to see them competing in the two qualifying sessions, but in the two races, less so.

Ferrari’s record here is decent. One win since 2014 with four other podiums, and they have had five double top 6 finishes.

McLaren

Norris’ run from seventeenth to finish fifth last weekend was very impressive. He also lost a handful of places after the re-start and if he had a clean qualifying session, he was getting another podium. I think we can safely say that they have a competitive car, on any track.

Hamilton and Norris should be fighting for second place in both races this weekend. Mercedes’ relative lack of one lap pace is still there but McLaren’s execution in qualifying has not been as good as it should have been. Piastri is struggling on the tracks he doesn’t know, and this is another, which is only to be expected.

McLaren have a very poor record here, just one podium from the last eight races and only two double points finishes. They should vastly improve that record this weekend, but they are a mile off Mercedes in terms of track form.

Aston Martin

Fifth in the constructors’ championship is quite a fall and since they introduced a big upgrade (downgrade?) in the US, they have fallen off a cliff.

The team insist that everything is in hand and it is just the circumstances of introducing the upgrade on a very bumpy track in a sprint race format, followed by the outlier that is Mexico. There may be a grain of truth in that, but it is clear that the upgraded car is slower than the old one.

That they have had to completely change the car for the races in Texas and Mexico City, and having to make pit lane starts in both, is not a sign of an orderly upgrade programme. Yes, they can gather comparative data as a result, but when that data shows that the new car is slower, they have a problem.

The next three races are now just an extended test for next year’s car, but it looks like they have lost direction, just as Mercedes and McLaren have found theirs. Their record here (in their old guises) is poor. They have managed just six points from the last five races.

Alpine

Still in the doldrums but now picking up points thanks to Aston Martin’s travails. They are picking up minor points only and they are vulnerable when other lower midfield cars find their sweet spot, such as Alpha Tauri and Williams in Mexico.

Looking better because someone else has got worse is not a sign of progress. Double points finishes here in the last two years offers some hope that they can do it again, and with Aston falling off the map, they may do, but the battle for the minor points is very competitive.

Williams

Three points finishes in the last two races is a bit of a bonus for Williams. The fact that Mexico is a very straights orientated track helped them and they lucked into a double points finish in Texas, so we can’t get carried away. It is not a late season surge, just good fortune and a track that suited.

More meritorious points could come in Vegas, but they are likely to need more good fortune if they are to score here. Williams are pointless from their last five races in Brazil.

Alpha Tauri

There are signs of real progress at Alpha Tauri. They have picked up ten points in the last two races and that has not been all down to Aston Martin going down the toilet.

Tsunoda has been showing some better qualifying pace and Ricciardo nailed it in that department in Mexico. His seventh place finish is as good as it will get in ‘normal’ conditions but with Aston Martin freeing up a points place, they are now in the running to score again.

They have done OK here in recent years with 25 points from the last three, but that was largely due to Gasly getting a second place in 2019 in a freak result.

Alfa Romeo

Their double points finish in Qatar looks like a bit of a freak result, but their qualifying pace has shown improvement. That suggests they have made progress performance wise, but over a race distance, they need a bit of luck.

They got a ninth place with Bottas here last year, so we can’t rule them out, but Alpha Tauri look a better prospect when it comes to one of the lesser teams scoring this weekend. Alfa/Sauber have scored points in four of the last six races and it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if they got another.

Haas

Like their big brother Ferrari, Haas’ race prospects are limited by poor tyre deg. Occasionally great in qualifying, consistently poor in the races. It is a design flaw in the cars suspension, and that is not going to be fixed in 2023.

Their double points finish in 2018 is their only scoring race from the last eight and another blank looks very likely.

2023 Brazil GP: Ante Post Selections

This could be a busy weekend with two races and two qualifying sessions, so I’m not keen to go heavy on ante posts.

Lewis Hamilton has now gone forty three races without a Grand Prix win. Could he be about to end that run? There is a reasonable chance.

The team have finally found themselves on the right path in this ground effect era. It took them far too long to admit they had taken a wrong turn, but once they had a reshuffle of their designers, changed the design philosophy, made the parts and got them on the car, they have found proper pace. It is not all in place yet, but the basics are there.

Mercedes’ Spirits Lifted

The results have started to come and that has lifted everyone’s spirits within the team. Hamilton is now fully motivated, realising that the podium is well within reach.

Now they come to a track on which they have an excellent record. Even in last year’s kangaroo car they scored a 1-2 finish. Last year Hamilton came here after scoring back-to-back second places. This year he comes here after back-to-back second places (albeit he was later disqualified from the US GP). Can he go one place better?

George Russell won last year in the other Mercedes but George is struggling a bit right now. I should know having backed him for podiums in the last two races. With this being a Sprint race weekend, and Mercedes knowing how to get things done here, they should be able to hit the ground running. With just one practice session, that is important.

Maximise Potential

The Mercedes is not at its best in qualifying so maximising their potential quickly may help get them up the order a little. The closer they can get to the front row, the better.

Their race pace has been strong in the last three races but that is not reflected in the points table with Hamilton and Russell clashing in Qatar and Hamilton DQ’d in Texas.

Without clashing in Qatar, Mercedes would be looking at three straight runners up places. They are ready to challenge if Red Bull are just a bit off their usual standard.

Red Bull Stalling

Red Bull have stopped developing their car for a while which has helped Mercedes and McLaren close the gap. The Autódromo José Carlos Pace has not been a happy hunting ground for Red Bull, by their recent standards. Max has only got one win here and Perez never better than fourth.

They have rarely looked totally comfortable here and as they are winding down for the season, it is not of any great importance. Red Bull are hoping to get Perez into second place, but probably realise that is a dead duck given his form. They are going through the motions. Mercedes are desperate to get a win on the board.

McLaren On the Up

McLaren are heading in the same direction as Mercedes and should be competitive, but they don’t have a huge bank of successful data to draw on for this track. Mercedes look to be the team most likely to win, if Verstappen doesn’t, and Hamilton the most likely driver.

I’d settle for second place, but a win is not out of the question. In the week when Mercedes parted company with Chief Technical Officer Mike Elliott, designer of the terrible zero pod concept, it would be ironic if they were to return to the top step.

2023 Brazil GP Tip: 1 point e/w Lewis Hamilton to win the Sao Paulo GP @ 10.00 with BET365

Lando Norris can also be considered as a realistic threat to Verstappen, and the podium finishers, at the very least. McLaren started the season with a car that wasn’t ready. They didn’t have the finished article until the Austrian GP and Norris finished the race in fourth place.

His average finishing position from Austria onwards is 4.09. They have added further upgrades since and in the last five races his average finishing position is exactly 3.00. His race pace in Mexico City was top drawer and but for his qualifying cock up, he would have had another podium.

Podium Claims

Norris can be backed at a slightly generous 1.85 to finish on the podium and he is 15.00 for the race outright. If we were getting each way betting for the top three places, like in the good old days, we could go doubled handed with two decent priced drivers to oppose Verstappen with.

With just the two places up for grabs, we would need Verstappen to finish outside the top two places and that has only happened once this year. Once. It is ridiculous just how dominant the Red Bull – Verstappen combination has been in 2023.

But back to Norris. He is a bigger price to finish in the top three than I would make him and despite not having much of a record here, his recent form is compelling.

2023 Brazil GP Tip: 2 points Lando Norris to finish on the podium @ 1.85 with Ladbrokes

We will have the usual updates for qualifying tomorrow, the Sprint race on Saturday and the race itself on Sunday.

-JamesPunt