2023 Brazil GP Qualifying Preview & Tips – JP
2023 Brazil GP Qualifying Preview
James has already posted a comprehensive outright preview, read that here. Check out his 2023 Brazil GP Qualifying preview below.
2023 Brazil GP Qualifying
The one and only practice session was less than straightforward. There was a good deal of divergence in the programs the different teams and drivers were running.
Ferrari topped the time sheet with a 1-2. It was Sainz who was quickest, but Leclerc had his first flying lap compromised so he did his time on a slightly used set. Ferrari set those times on the soft compound.
George Russell was third and he set his time on the medium compound and he set the time with 30 minutes of the session still to go, so the track was still a bit dirty. Hamilton was down in twelfth. I thought he only used the hard tyre, but Toto Wolff said that he did do a medium tyre run but screwed up the first two corners, but was otherwise on the same kind of pace as Russell.
McLaren Lurking
At the very bottom of the time sheet were the two McLarens. However, they both aborted very fast laps. Piastri was on the soft and he set fastest sector time in S1 and S2. Norris was on the medium and was only a little slower and he also aborted the lap. They are very much in the hunt for the GP pole this afternoon.
The two Red Bulls were keeping the McLarens company down at the bottom, but they didn’t even touch any other tyre other than the hard. They are beatable over one lap, but they won’t be far away.
Hulkenberg was fourth on the soft and he could make Q3 later. The Haas has good one lap pace and he likes it here. The race is their problem and will remain so.
Decent Practice Session
Everyone got a decent amount of lappage in. Hulkenberg did the fewest with 19 laps, Leclerc the most with 32, but outside of Hulkenberg, everyone got at least 24 laps. Nobody has any great hard luck story that stopped them being able to get their setup sorted out at least reasonably well.
It looks like we have seven drivers on the shortlist for this afternoon’s qualifying session. There is one less obvious candidate, but more of that later.
Verstappen obviously, Leclerc, Sainz, Norris, Piastri, Russell and Hamilton.
Both McLarens looked set to lock out the top of the time sheet, but elected to abort their fast laps. The pace is there. In the last six race weekends, both Piastri and Norris have been second in one qualifying session.
Soft Tyres
The two Ferrari drivers used the soft tyres but were only 0.133 faster than Russell on the slower, medium tyre. Ferrari have been on pole for four of the last six qualifying sessions, two each for Sainz and Leclerc. They have the one lap pace to compete.
Russell’s time topped the table for a long time and I assume that had they decided to go for a late run on the softs, either Russell or Hamilton would have been quicker than the Ferrari, comfortably.
Verstappen is harder to call. Red Bull kept their cards very close to their chest and didn’t even venture out on a medium. The fact is that he has been outqualified in four of the last six sessions and he is not nailed on, which odds of 1.83 or lower suggests he is close to being.
Ferrari Flattering to deceive?
I do not rate the Ferrari times. They did it late and on the fastest tyre. There was around a second’s worth of time gained between the compounds. Russell improved his time on the hard tyre by 1.4 seconds when he switched to the medium, for example. For Ferrari to only be just ahead but on the soft, doesn’t bode well.
Others whose times were not representative are Hamilton, Verstappen and Fernando Alonso. Hamilton is in the same ball park as Russell while Verstappen and Alonso didn’t do anything other than hard tyre runs.
Aston Back To Old Setup
Aston Martin have reverted to an old set up after the disaster that was the recent upgrade, so perhaps we will see the kind of pace that Alonso showed earlier in the season?
He was faster than Verstappen on the hards and if we take a conservative 1.5 seconds off his best time in practice, Alonso would have been around 1.11.115, some half a second quicker than the Ferrari’s.
If we took a conservative 0.75 off Russell’s time to account for a switch to softs, he would have been on 1.11.115. The same as Alonso.
It looks to me that the potential is there for Verstappen, the Mercedes and Alonso to be very close if they do find the expected time gains from using the fastest tyre. They might not of course, but after a mixed up session, we have to speculate.
The McLarens have to be lumped in there as well. They didn’t set a proper time but by setting two purple sectors, they showed their hand.
Verstappen is poor value at odds on. Leclerc and Hamilton are 11.00, Norris, Sainz and Russell 13.00, Piastri 23.00…..and Alonso 151.00.
I am happy to have two plays to modest stakes and hope for the old Brazilian magic to strike.
