2023 Breeders Cup Saturday Preview & Picks – DS
2023 Breeders Cup Saturday Preview & Tips
Fingers crossed we have a few quid in the coffers after Friday night. It is even busier on Saturday at Santa Anita as the older horses get their chance to shine. Dave Stevos has previewed all nine races and he likes a few horses at big prices, get his 2023 Breeders Cup Saturday tips below.
6.30 – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1)
Not a betting race for me but for once, I’ll be hoping the favourite wins. The Cody’s Wish story would warm even the coldest of hearts and the scenes last year when he won by a head at Keeneland would have brought a tear to a glass eye. Fingers crossed he can do it for Cody.
2023 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: No Bet
7.10 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1)
A race we have done ok in before. We found Audarya at 12/1 in 2020 and last year we nicked a lovely 40/1 place with Lady Speightspeare. The favourite for this year’s renewal is Inspiral for the Gosdens and Frankie Dettori.
This filly is on a hat trick of G1 victories and her 1.25L defeat of Big Rock at Deauville (8f gd) is looking like a serious piece of form now. The one big question mark is tonight’s 10f trip. The daughter of Frankel has never raced beyond a mile and while this is a flat, fast track, there is likely to be a pretty strong gallop from the outset. She isn’t guaranteed to stay and she could be worth opposing.
Drawn Wide
Even though she is drawn widest in stall 12, State Occasion could run a big race here. Trained by Ralph Beckett, the in form Rossa Ryan will ride and he got a good tune out of this 5yo mare in the G1 Prix De L’Opera at Longchamp last time.
Drawn 7 that day, State Occasion broke well and got a decent position just behind the leaders. She got a bit outpaced 2f out but she really picked up well in the last 100 yards and she was closing fast on the front runner Lumiere Rock at the finish.
Strong Form
Only 0.5L separated them at the line but the Joseph O’Brien filly had the run of the race. Jackie Oh was only 1.5L ahead of her in 2nd and she was touched off in a G1 on Champions Day at Ascot so the form stands up to scrutiny.
Lumiere Rock, 14/1 tonight, is unlikely to be able to dictate here as she’ll face plenty of competition for the early lead. If they do go too quick early, it should suit Ralph Beckett’s daughter of Iffraaj. The key will be how fast State Occasion gets away from the gates.
If she blows the start, it could be game over immediately. However, if she can get away fast and Ryan can somehow get a decent early position in 5th or 6th, I can see her running on well in the closing stages. Given how little separated her and Lumiere Rock in France, I don’t think she should be over twice the odds of that rival. At 33/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
2023 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: State Occasion e/w @ 33/1 (4 places)
7.50 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1)
In last year’s renewal Goodnight Olive was viewed as one of the bankers of the night. Chad Brown’s mare didn’t disappoint, landing the prize by over 2L from Echo Zulu. The now 5yo daughter of Ghostzapper is back for another go and she is a shorter price, but she hasn’t got the same aura about her.
She has tasted defeat in two of her four runs this season, including last time out at Saratoga. Echo Zulu got her revenge on that occasion but she has been retired so Goodnight Olive won’t have to worry about her. There is no doubt she is the class horse in the race but the fact she has lost 2 of her last 3 cannot be ignored.
Fast Finisher
One horse who should be finishing faster than most is Kirstenbosch. Trained by John Sadler, this improving 4yo likes it at Santa Anita. Sadler had been running his 4yo daughter of Midnight Lute over 8f/9f for most of her career but the drop back to this sort of trip and the addition of blinkers has been the making of her.
Her first attempt at 6.5f here saw her beaten a length in a Listed contest behind Elm Drive. Her next three runs came at 8.5f/9f in G2 and G1 company and while she ran well enough in one of them, the drop back in trip and first time blinkers seemed to do the trick on her next start. She finished off really strongly for second in a G3 handicap behind Eda, beat just 1.5L for the win.
G3 Win
Sadler brought his filly back to Santa Anita for her last start in a 6.5f Grade 3. Behind early, she again finished off with a right rattle and this time she got her revenge over Eda, beating her by over 3L. Clearly Unhinged was back in second and both of those horses reoppose tonight.
Neither of those fillies had any excuses last time out. It is hard to understand why Clearly Unhinged, who is 6lbs worse off with Kirstenbosch, is 20/1 and the same price as Sadler’s charge. Eda is even shorter at 14s and she has over 3L to find. Goodnight Olive and Society should ensure that Kirstenbosch gets the strong pace she needs, hopefully she can finish fast and late to land e/w bets at odds of 20/1.
2023 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: Kirstenbosch e/w @ 20/1 NAP
8.30 – Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade 1)
The most overpriced horse of the meeting runs in this 8f contest. Last year, Shirl’s Speight was 0.75L away from causing a 56/1 upset in this race at Keeneland. He was arguably unlucky not to win and his last three runs confirm that he retains plenty of ability.
Roger Attfield’s 6yo son of Speightstown ran poorly on his first run back from a break in Japan. Since then, he has run crackers at Meydan (9f gd) and twice at Woodbine over a mile. In Dubai he finished a fine fourth in G1 company, just 3L behind Lord North at odds of 66/1. 2L in front of him was 120 rated Nations Pride, since a dual G1 winner. Danon Beluga was second and he was just 4L behind Equinox on his last start in Japan.
Needed The Run
On his penultimate start in a G2 at Woodbine, Shirl’s Speight looked like he needed the run. He still managed to nick fourth, just 2.75L behind the winner. On his last outing, Sadler’s charge chased home Master Of The Seas in a Woodbine G1 (8f fm). Nearly 4L separated them at the finish but John Velazquez had to take a pull as they turned for home and that enabled the winner to get first run.
Now, you couldn’t say that Shirl’s Speight would have beaten the Appleby horse with a clear passage but he definitely would have got much closer. It was a better run than he produced in the same race last year before finishing second in this contest and I’d imagine, this race has long been the plan.
Traffic problems could be an issue given his inside draw but at odds of 40/1, it is worth chancing that he gets a clear run through. If he does, a place at the very least is not out of the question.
2023 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: Shirl’s Speight e/w @ 40/1 (4 places) NB
9.10 – Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade 1)
Idiomatic, a winner of five of her six starts this season, is the 9/4 fav for the Distaff. The last two wins came at G1 level and she won them by a combined distance of 8L. An uncomplicated filly who likes to make the pace, she could be hard to peg back if she pings the gates from stall 4.
Adare Manor has also been something of a winning machine this season. Trained by multiple convicted doper Bob Baffert, she landed a G2 here over 8.5f last time by 5L, following up her 1L G1 win at Del Mar in August. Like the fav, she too enjoys being close to the pace so it should ensure this is a truly run contest.
Stamina
Randomized is another likely front runner and the horse he beat by 4L into 2nd last time at Saratoga, Wet Paint, should be well suited by a relentless gallop. Trained by Brad Cox, as is the fav Idiomatic, this filly stayed on well over the 10f trip last time so she clearly possesses a bit of stamina.
On her last start at 9f, she landed a G1 at Saratoga back in July, getting up late to beat Sacred Wish by a neck. This will be her first run at Santa Anita so the track is an unknown, but she looks guaranteed to get a strong pace to aim at so it should suit her patient run style.
14/1 looks a big price about a filly that has finished in the first two in eight of her nine starts this year and at those odds, Wet Paint is worth chancing e/w.
2023 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: Wet Paint e/w @ 14/1 (4 places)
9.50 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1)
What a race this is. Derby winner Auguste Rodin and Juddmonte winner Mostahdaf head the market at around 3/1. Champion Stakes winner King Of Steel is next best at 13/2. Arc 3rd Onesto is 15/2 and then the shortest priced home challenger is Up To The Mark at 8/1, the winner of three G1s on his last three starts.
This race has been dominated by European trainers in recent years. Since 2015, seven of the eight renewals have gone to the away team. Charlie Appleby won the last two, Aidan O’Brien has won it six times in total and no other trainer has a better record than him.
Far East Rising
However, a fair few of these global races have been won by Japanese horses in the last couple of years so at 14/1, I’m going to take a punt on Shahryar. He is by the top class Deep Impact and he has a couple of snippets of form that would give him place claims here. His last couple of runs haven’t been great but Hideaki Fujiwara may well have been just getting him prepared for this.
Three runs ago, his last start at 12f on good to firm, he was beat less than a length into 2nd behind Vela Azul in the Japan Cup at Tokyo. In March of last year he won the Sheema Classic in Meydan (12 gd), beating the likes of Yibir, Hukum and Pyledriver.
That is top class form and you could forgive him his poor run last time out at Sapporo after a near five month break. His trainer reported that he has travelled over well and that they are there to win.
He is certainly bred for the job. His dam won at the 2010 Breeders’ Cup and his grandsire Sunday Silence also won at this meeting back in 1989. Hopefully Shahryar is cut from the same cloth, at odds of 14/1 it is worth taking the chance that he is.
2023 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: Shahryar e/w @ 14/1 (4 places)
10.40 – Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1)
Another chance for Japan to make their mark on the big stage. Their policy of breeding from middle distance sires rather than crack sprinters is paying dividends and this represents another chance for them to win a monstrous pot at one of the most important meetings on the planet.
The one that is favoured by the oddsmakers is Ushba Tesoro. The son of Orfevre is on a six timer, with his penultimate win coming in the G1 Dubai World Cup at Meydan in March. He warmed up for this with a facile win in a G2 at Funabashi a month ago and Yuga Kawada will be hoping to avoid traffic problems and produce his mount late.
Bigger Price
Ushba Tesoro is just 9/2 though and at a bigger price, his compatriot Derma Sotogake might outrun his odds of 16/1. He is by Mind Your Biscuits, second in the Juvenile Sprint here back in 2016. His dam was a Listed winner over 10f and this fella stays that far too.
After an impressive 5.5L UAE Derby win at Meydan in March, Hidetaka Otonashi set his sights on plundering the Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, he was drawn 14 of 18, he was a touch slow away and once that happened, he was always on the back foot. To his credit he managed to run on for 6th, a decent result in the circumstances.
This time, Derma Sotogake is drawn much better in stall 5 and that should enable him to get into a good early position. He hasn’t been seen since Kentucky but he has won when fresh before and if he turns up here in the same form as he was when making all at Meydan, he could be hard to reel in if he nails the start. With Christophe-Patrice Lemaire doing the steering, an e/w interest at odds of 16/1 is advised.
2023 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: Derma Sotogake e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
11.25 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1)
Adam West’s sprinter Live In The Dream looks made for this. He only knows one way to race and he has a fairly decent draw in stall 5. His prep run at Keeneland over 5.5F should have left him spot on and this slightly shorter trip will suit much better. If he’s at his best, he’ll be very hard to beat.
The one I’ll be taking a chance on at a big price is Tony Ann. Trained by Philip D’Amato, this mare beat Caravel by a neck last time out at Keeneland (5.5f fm). She is 4lbs worse off with that rival tonight but even so, I don’t think she deserves to be over 3x the price of that horse.
Versatile
This mare has won over all sorts of distances but the drop to sprinting trips has been the making of her. Her last three starts have been at 5f to 6f and she has produced form figures of 231.
She’s drawn in stall 4, just inside the likely pace setter Live In The Dream, so Hector Berrios should be able to slot in behind him and get a prominent early position. If the fav goes too fast, we know this mare stays further and she should be doing her best work in the closing stages. 25/1 looks too big a price about Tony Ann so she is the each way selection.
2023 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: Tony Ann e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)
11.59 – Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade 1)
Last, but not least, is the Breeders’ Cup Sprint over 6f on the dirt. Nine will line up in the stalls and Elite Power is a warm order for Mott and Ortiz Jr. The son of Curlin has won his last five at 6f and his sole defeat this season came over 7f at Saratoga last time out. He broke our hearts at this meeting last year, beating our e/w fancy C Z Rocket and now that he is back at his optimum trip, he looks the one to beat.
Dark Horse
The dark horse in here could be last time out winner Hoist The Gold. John Velazquez rides and he will start from stall 4. In that last race at Keeneland, a 6f G2, he was drawn on the inside.
A step slow away, Velazquez drove him early and he managed to hold onto a rail position just behind the two early leaders. As they turned for home Velazquez made his challenge down the middle of the track and he went on to win pretty cosily by 0.75L.
His sole previous run at Santa Anita came in a 7f G1 in December 2022 and he ran a blinder to finish third. He has faced Elite Status once before and he got to within 3.5L of him at Saratoga in September 2022. Elite Status is a better horse now, but so is Hoist The Gold and if he can repeat the level of form he showed at Keeneland last month, a big run could be on the cards at odds of 25/1.
