2023 British GP Qualifying Update and Tips – JP
2023 British GP Qualifying Update
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 British GP Qualifying Update. He has already posted an outright betting preview, check that out here. His qualifying tips are below.
2023 British GP Qualifying
With the three free practice sessions finished we should have a clear idea of the pecking order, but things have not been so clear so far.
There were some strange performances on Friday and then this morning’s more defining session was hit by rain after 30 minutes or so, rendering the session of very limited value. Some drivers got quick laps in before the rain arrived, others didn’t.
The real head scratcher, and that was said by the driver himself, was the pace of Williams and Alex Albon in particular. The Williams has improved in recent races and they are in the hunt for a point or two, but so far this weekend Albon has finished 3rd, 3rd and 2nd in the three sessions.
His teammate, Logan Sargeant, was 17th, 5th and 7th. That both cars have been competitive suggests that they have found some real pace around Silverstone, but top 6 or podium contenders? I doubt it.
Mercedes Lacked One Lap Pace
This morning’s 2nd quickest time was set just before the rain arrived and drivers like Max Verstappen hadn’t set a representative time on the soft. Yesterday’s times were flattered by Mercedes lack of one lap pace, Aston Martin ditto and Leclerc’s not running and so on.
I was expecting the top teams to bounce back this morning, but we never really got to see everyone doing a qualifying simulation in the dry. If Mercedes and Aston Martin are still struggling then Albon can enjoy a good result in qualifying, but come Sunday, their race pace looks very much that of the midfielders.
A point or two is a realistic target but those top 3 times are a bit misleading and of course they may have had a relatively lighter fuel load yesterday, but it is all good PR.
Austria Repeat
For today’s qualifying it looks very much like last week’s Austrian scenario. Red Bull vs. Ferrari. Verstappen vs. Leclerc, Perez vs. Sainz.
Leclerc was just 0.048 off Verstappen’s pole time last weekend, but that was on a very short lap which makes the difference look small. Silverstone is a much longer lap and you would expect the difference to be a little bigger today.
However, Carlos Sainz, the sole Ferrari on track in FP2 was just 0.022 off Verstappen yesterday. Of course, the cars were not doing qualifying sims and would have different fuel loads etc.
Ferrari Happy
Ferrari were happy with the one lap pace but are still concerned about their long runs, despite two strong races in a row. Silverstone is very hard on tyres, so any weakness will be exposed, but for the qualifying session they look in good shape, especially with Mercedes and Aston Martin looking a bit flat so far.
Max Verstappen has been on pole for the last four races and Red Bull in all but one. Leclerc managed pole position in Azerbaijan and the two Ferrari’s look to be the only real threat to another Verstappen pole.
Sergio Perez has scored two poles this season, both when Max had problems, but the Mexican is far from his best form in recent qualifying sessions. His confidence is low and his first job is just to make sure he makes it into Q3. He is beatable by one, or both Ferrari drivers today.
Weather Key
The weather has to be watched today, but it is looking like the worst of the weather has passed. There is some very heavy rain to the West of Silverstone, but it is a long way away and drifting north, not eastwards.
There is a light shower cloud nearby about 15 minutes before qualifying, but after that it is dry all the way into the evening. Officially there is a 10% chance of a light shower.
The track was wet for the F2 race but drying. There is plenty of cloud around so the track is not drying quickly, but we should see the sun breaking through and that will dry things out quickly enough.
Max The Fav
Max Verstappen is the 1.40 favourite to be the fastest qualifier, Charles Leclerc 10.00, Carlos Sainz 13.00, Perez 15.00 and if you thinks Albon’s pace is real, he is a 41.00 shot.
Ferrari have had a car in the top 2 in qualifying for two of the last three races and they had the fastest lap in qualifying here last year in a wet session. That was with Carlos Sainz who is good in the wet. In the dry I would rate Leclerc as the faster qualifier but he is prone to more errors than the steady Sainz.
If there is to be a surprise, I can only see one of the two Ferraris causing it. Verstappen is going to be very hard to beat but there is just enough value in Leclerc’s odds to have an e/w punt.
