2023 British GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2023 British GP Raceday Update
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 British GP Raceday Update. Charles Leclerc failed to fire for us in qualifying yesterday and our outright bet for a podium finish starts from seventh. Fingers crossed he can make up a few places, get James’ thoughts on raceday below.
2023 British GP Raceday Outlook
The strangeness continued into qualifying yesterday. McLaren crashed the party, qualifying 2nd and 3rd and denying the place part of the Leclerc bet by 0.175 seconds.
Clearly, the McLaren updates are working well here and they would have been helped by the cooler weather yesterday. The McLaren’s trait of getting the front tyres up to temperature in cool, damp conditions nearly landed us a big win in last weekend’s Sprint Shootout, and yesterday it was enough to promote them to best of the rest in qualifying.
Close At The Top
It is very close at the top. Max Verstappen was a comfortable 0.241 ahead, but there was only 0.25 between Norris in second and Hamilton in 7th. Close racing looks to be on the cards this afternoon.
The weather was changeable yesterday and the forecasters were wide of the mark showers wise, but qualifying was dry enough for slicks to be used throughout the session.
There has been some rain showers this morning, affecting the F3 race, but again, it was still dry enough for all but one driver to stick to slicks in the dying laps.
Slight Chance of Showers
The Met Office forecast for Silverstone is for a 30% chance more light showers all afternoon. Another forecaster has the chance of showers during the race at 50%, and with a chance of thunderstorms rather than light showers.
That doesn’t really help, but we have to accept that there is a chance of showers, but how significant they will be is impossible to tell.
The two drivers on the front row, Verstappen and Norris have gone very well in the wet sessions this year, along with Sainz, Hamilton and Hulkenberg. Those drivers would likely benefit more than most if there is any wet stuff.
Of the top 10 drivers, Leclerc, Piastri and Albon would appear to be relatively weak in the wet. Perez, stuck down in 15th is another hydrophobic.
Team by Team Raceday Preview
Red Bull
Are now used to having one driver on pole and the other outside the top 10. This will be the seventh race this season where it has occurred and it will cost them a championship 1-2 finish at this rate.
Perez is writing his own Formula 1 obituary with his pathetic qualifying performances. Max Verstappen on the other hand is winning races and the championship at a canter. He is the 1.25 favourite to win his eighth race of the season and his sixth in a row. The only thing likely to stop him is Just Stop Oil protesters.
If it stays dry, Perez can make his way through the field and maybe get a podium. If it rains, he may well draw a blank.
McLaren
Surprised even themselves by qualifying 2nd and 3rd. The car was improving thanks to a recent upgrade and Norris has a further one on the car this weekend. Piastri has the ‘Austrian’ upgrade which Norris got last weekend.
The big question is will they be able to hang on for a podium or will they fall back?
Last weekend Norris started the sprint race in 3rd place but ended up 9th in the sprint race. That was complicated by having a wet/drying track but his big problem was getting stuck behind the two Red Bulls, nearly hitting them in corner three, before the anti-stall kicked in a knocked him back to 10th on the first lap.
He lost out on 8th place in the final lap as the slick shod Russell was making up places. It is hard to read too much into that performance as we didn’t get to see Norris having a proper go.
We did get to see Norris start from 4th in the actual race and he held his position to finish 4th. Well, he actually finished 5th, but was promoted to 4th after Sainz got a post-race penalty for track limits violations.
It isn’t a lot to go on, but at least it wasn’t a dramatic collapse like we see from the Haas drivers for example. I will have a tilt at them both running well and getting both home in the top 6.
2023 British GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Double Top 6 finish for McLaren @ 4.00 with Hills
Ferrari
Had looked the comfortable second best team this weekend until McLaren jumped them in qualifying. It may just have been the fact that the McLarens completed their final qualy laps a fraction later than the Ferraris as the track was still evolving after getting cleaned up by earlier rain.
The Ferrari was the faster car for much of the lap but they just lost out in the last few corners. Ferrari had been traditionally slower over a race distance before they put their upgrade on the car in Canada. Since then they have had two good race performances.
Good Signs
Austria saw Leclerc start and finish second and Sainz only lost out to Perez in the Red Bull, until the stewards hit him with a ten second penalty. Those were good signs but Sainz remains cautious about the issue for today’s race. Silverstone is hard on tyres, so he is probably right to do so.
He is also right to be wary of his team not executing the race as well as they should. Leclerc is their main man and he starts ahead of the Spaniard again. Backing Ferrari on raceday does mean taking a leap of faith that they won’t shoot themselves in the foot again.
Mercedes
One of the mystery teams this weekend. They have struggled for one lap pace all weekend but their race pace in FP2 was competitive. They are invariably strongest on Sunday and we cannot rule out a podium finish for one of their drivers.
We have backed Hamilton to do so already, so hopefully he can still do it, but on average he only picks up 1.72 places over his qualifying position this season. He is a track specialist and he should have the pace to match all but the Red Bulls. He is now a 2.77 shot to do so.
Williams
Another mystery team this weekend. Albon was third or second in the three practice sessions and Sargeant got top 7 in FP2 & 3 but come the slightly damp qualifying session, they dropped back to 8th and 14th respectively.
We Know that they don’t have the pace to make a move forward, but being so fast on the straights makes Albon very hard to pass. He will be trying to hang on to a points finish and might just do it.
Nicolas Latifi qualified 10th here last year but could only finish 12th, despite a lot of attrition. This year’s car is better and Albon a much better driver. He is a best priced 1.83 to do so and there is no great value there.
Aston Martin
Have been disappointing so far. Alonso was 3rd in FP3 and 4th in FP1, but they have become a little less competitive relative to their nearest competitors. Starting 9th and 12th is their worst combined qualifying session of the season and that doesn’t bode well for today.
Alonso should have the pace to get past Albon but the rest of the cars ahead just look faster this weekend. Their battle looks to be with the Alpines for the minor points.
Alpine
Are having another disappointing weekend. Starting 10th for Gasly and 13th for Ocon. Gasly should hang on for a point or two and is 1.80 to do so. There isn’t much value there either.
Haas
Once again have Hulkenberg well up the field but it is just a matter of how far he falls back in the race. The car is a tyre muncher and Silverstone will just make it even more so. Rain is his best hope for a good result. But it would need to be wet for the whole race, and that isn’t likely.
Alfa Romeo and Alpha Tauri are not at the races once again.
Race Day Selections
The trophy engraver can scratch Verstappen’s name on it with some degree of confidence. Odds of 1.25 are arguably a bit generous but of no real betting value.
Who might join him on the podium?
Norris has the class and he now looks to have the car. The two Ferraris will be in the mix so long as they can manage the tyres well enough and not drop a strategic spanner in the works. Any rain might be enough to throw them.
Race Pace
I cannot rule out either of the Mercedes with their prodigious race pace. Norris and Leclerc have booth performed well here and Sainz won it last year, albeit by being lucky that Verstappen had a broken floor. Rain would help Sainz and Norris.
Norris has scored at least one podium per season for the last three years so he knows how to get the job done. Piastri is still learning the ropes and will be under pressure not to screw it up. He has fast cars behind him and he looks more likely to get dropped.
Norris is 2.25 to finish on the podium, Leclerc 2.30, Sainz 3.00, Hamilton 2.77, Russell 5.50 and Perez 3.50. I can’t say that any of them are any value.
The points finish market is equally bereft of any value. Albon is 1.83, Gasly 1.80 and they make the most sense but not much appeal.
Winning Margin
The winning margin got my attention for the only reason that I am scrabbling about looking for some value opportunities. The average winning margin in 2023 is 10.19 seconds. It was only 5.155 last weekend as Verstappen had a near 30 second lead and could afford a late pitstop for new tyres to make sure got the fastest lap point.
That tells us the Verstappen is willing to take the risk of a botched stop to gain just one more point. It is a box he likes to tick. He will do it again, if he has a big enough margin. A stop here only takes 20 seconds and with the Red Bull’s pace he can certainly open up that kind of gap.
Safety Car
However the chance of a safety car here has been around 90% in the last nine years and that can bunch the field up and cut the leaders advantage to nothing at any time.
The odds for an over 11 second winning margin are just 1.60 and that has only paid out three times in the first nine races, so forget that bet.
One that does just about get the vote is for the winning margin to be between 0.000 and 5.999 seconds. That has paid out in five of the nine races so far. A late safety car or Max going for a late pitstop would really help.
2023 British GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Winning margin to be between 0.000 and 5.999 seconds @ 3.50 with Ladbrokes
Verstappen has set the fastest lap four times from the first nine races. We know he wants it every time and if he gets the chance and has the required gap, he will take additional risks to get it, and he could get it even without a late stop.
He is a 1.67 shot to get another and again, there is no value there.
I like to look for ways to oppose Hulkenberg after he has put in a good qualy performance and he has done just that by qualifying 11th. His average qualifying performance is now 10.7 and his average finishing place is 14.1.
He has been matched against Yuki Tsunoda by Unibet and it is the Japanese driver who is 6-3 against Hulkenberg in 2023. Tsunoda tends to pick up places over a race distance by an average of 1.50 per race.
