2023 Canadian GP Outright Betting Preview

James Punt was on fire at the Spanish GP. He landed four winners from five tips in his raceday update and he is hoping for more of the same this weekend. Check out his 2023 Canadian GP outright betting preview below.

2023 Canadian GP

We are a third of the way through the 2023 season and Red Bull have won the first seven races. They lead the constructor’s championship by 135 points from Mercedes in second place. Aston Martin suffered a setback in Spain, finishing 6th and 7th.

With Mercedes getting a double podium finish with their newly upgraded car, have they have overtaken Aston Martin? Will we now see Mercedes return to race winning form? Only if Red Bull have problems. Verstappen’s win in Spain was an exercise in cruise and collect and they remain in a different league.

The 2023 Canadian GP Track

The Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve is another pseudo street circuit but has more of a purpose built racetrack feel about it. There are fourteen corners, of which three are chicanes and the famous hairpin, before the big blast down the long straight and the final chicane and the ‘wall of champions’. It is dominated by straights linked by chicanes and the hairpin.

There is a slow, fiddly first sector but after that it is all about straight line performance and heavy braking. There are three DRS zones which will be music to the ears of Red Bull. It is a low downforce track, a bit point and squirt in nature and good straight line performance and braking will be rewarded. Quite unlike the Barcelona lay out.

Pole Pivotal

Since the start of the turbo hybrid era Mercedes have won four, Red Bull twice and Ferrari once. The driver starting on pole has won five of the last seven races here. The track is hard on cars and the average attrition rate over the last seven races is 3.57. First lap collisions are common as the cars negotiate the slower, twisty first sector.

In the turbo hybrid era there have been at least two not classified cars and four of the seven races saw three. This season, the average attrition rate is just 1.71 and in two of the last three races, there have been no retirements. This is hurting the teams in the bottom half of the table as they usually pick up the minor points often available when we have more retirements.

Driver Records

There are a few drivers with notable track records. This was the scene of Lewis Hamilton’s first win and he has four wins since 2014 (and seven career wins) and four pole positions. Esteban Ocon has finished 6th, 9th and 6th from his three starts.

Valtteri Bottas has been very strong here, always finishing in the top 7, scoring four podium finishes, including two for Williams. Nico Hulkenberg has been a model of consistency, always finishing in the points since 2014 with three 8th places, two 7ths and a 5th. Max Verstappen won from pole last year and is likely to do so again. Canadian, Lance Stroll has three top 10s

Some drivers have poor records. Sergio Perez, normally such a steady performer has only had two top 10s since 2014 and five scoreless visits, including a DNF last year. Carlos Sainz, another steady Eddie, was 2nd last year but had struggled here before that with a best of 8th.

Team by Team

Red Bull

Continue to dominate with Verstappen at the wheel. In this car he has no peer. The same cannot be said for Perez who has unravelled in the last couple of races, failing to score a podium in Spain and not even a point in Monaco. He is now 53 points behind his teammate and only 18 points clear of Alonso in 3rd.

With his confidence low coming to a track on which he has struggled on in the past, he may be best avoided punting wise. If he does have more qualifying woes then this is a track where he can recover, especially with the straight line performance and powerful Red Bull DRS.

Mercedes

Bounced back in some style in Spain. That was their first chance to really see how well their upgrades have worked. A 2nd and 3rd placed finish was very encouraging but perhaps a little flattering. They got their favoured cool track conditions and Barcelona has always been a strong track for them.

The team expect this to be a bit tougher but a podium finish is still within their grasp. The lack of fast corners will blunt their sword and it is not a perfect track for them (Barcelona was much more Merc friendly), but they should be in the mix for a podium come Sunday. Saturday may not be so good.

Aston Martin

Spain was a bit of a reality check for Aston Martin. They were only the third, maybe fourth best team. They were also flattered by Alpine’s Pierre Gasly getting a 6 place grid penalty having qualified 4th. Aston Martin are not going to have things so easy from now on with Mercedes revived and Alpine starting to get going.

Aston Martin will have an upgrade for their ‘home’ race. One of Aston Martin’s characteristics is a straight line deficit and that could be shown up this weekend, unless their upgrade addresses this problem. This will be the cars biggest upgrade of the season and as such, it is hard to say where they will fit in this weekend, but they do need to improve or risk slipping down the pecking order with Mercedes and Alpine improving.

Alonso remains upbeat about the team’s prospects this weekend and the fact that this is not a ‘classical’ race track might help. It will have been a concern that Aston Martin had their worst weekend of the season on a ‘car track’. Barcelona, even without the slow chicane at the end of the lap, is a good all round test of a car.

Ferrari

While Mercedes upgrade worked well, Ferrari’s seems to have made the car worse. Charles Leclerc’s post-race interview showed a man at the end of his tether. He just couldn’t understand his car. It was completely inconsistent and unpredictable. The idea of the upgrade was to make it more consistent.

Carlos Sainz didn’t struggle as much but his race pace was as disappointing as ever. The team have claimed that the upgrade was worth 2-3 tenths, that there was nothing wrong with Leclerc’s car and that the upgrade was an unmitigated triumph. Starting second and finishing fifth was a success. Right.

Ferrari is not a happy place and the fact that Ferrari’s endurance racing team won the 24 Hours of Le Mans will cast their F1 team in a poor light.

On the plus side is that this is a track which should suit their car better. Slow corners and plenty of traction zones out of them and their car does not lack for straight line speed.

Last year Carlos Sainz qualified third and finished a very close second, while Leclerc started from the pit lane and finished 5th. This should be a better race weekend for them, but this is Ferrari we are talking about, so who knows?

Qualifying could well see Ferrari at their best and maybe another front row is possible, but their race pace is likely to be hurt by their poor tyre degradation.

Alpine

The car is improving, as shown by Gasly being the fourth fastest qualifier in Spain, but they are still manging to make life difficult for themselves. A double grid place penalty for Gasly due to blocking was poor, as was their race pace.

The car was good down the long straight and they were able to defend from cars behind who had the advantage of DRS. That suggests they can be competitive on this layout.

A bit like Ferrari, Alpine need to stop getting in their own way. Ocon loves the track and Alpine are getting into that group of Mercedes, Aston Martin and Ferrari, so he is on the shortlist for a good weekend.

McLaren

Another car which is a bit draggy to enjoy this lay out. We have learned that it has a sweet spot and that is cold and wet conditions. Will they get them this weekend? More on that later. Norris is having a very strange season. He has finished 17th four times, but in the points for the other three. That is not the kind of driver/car that makes an attractive betting proposition.

Haas

Tied on eight points with Alfa Romeo. Haas have a car that has good pace, but like Ferrari, that pace is shown in qualifying, not the race. Their greatest strength is straight line speed which will be handy here, but their race pace is generally disappointing. A Q3/no points finish for one or both?

Alpha Tauri

It has been a frustrating season for Alpha Tauri. Tsunoda is there or thereabouts in terms of the top ten in the races, but he has only picked up two points. His biggest problem with the car has been the brakes and that is key metric at Montreal. Nyck De Vries has shown signs of getting more out of the car but his qualifying pace remains poor.

Williams

This should be a better venue for Williams. Their lack of downforce will not stand out so much on a low downforce track. Their decent straight line speed rewarded but it will be very hard for them to score points. They need more attrition and so far this season, the cars are proving to be very reliable. This has been a high attrition track so maybe they can get a break, as long as they are not part of the attrition.

The Weather Forecast

Rain was a feature for qualifying in Spain and it threw up a major surprise in Norris putting his McLaren into third place on the grid. Piastri qualified 10th and it was their best qualifying session of the season.

The forecast for this weekend is, as usual, not unanimous. The general consensus is that it will be predominantly cloudy, especially on Friday and Saturday.

Light showers are on the menu but while most say the same for Friday and Saturday, cloudy with light showers, Sunday is still a bit up in the air. It is expected to be distinctly cooler on race day but also with less cloud. Some forecasts say there is still a chance of showers, others that it will be partly cloudy but dry.

Saturday looks to be the wettest day with an 80 – 90% chance of showers, so it looks like we could have a repeat of the scenario we had in Spain. A wet qualifying but a dry race.

That would be good news for McLaren, for qualifying at least, and for the raceday it sounds good for Mercedes who will get the cooler conditions they like. I have to stress that the forecasters’ confidence is rated as low at the moment.

2023 Canadian GP Ante Post Selections

It has paid dividends to be patient this season and hold fire until after the free practice sessions. This weekend looks to be another race to do just that, especially with an uncertain weather forecast. Unless there is a price that is wrong enough to take an early plunge of course…

The race winner is of course very likely to be Max Verstappen. The Red Bull remains in a different formula to the rest. A wet race could throw some jeopardy his way but his odds of 1.36 reflect his chances.

Charles Leclerc makes some appeal for fastest qualifier. Sainz was third in qualifying here last year and it is a layout which looks Ferrari friendly. He has had one pole and one second place in qualifying this season and odds of 7.00 offer a little value, but not quite enough at this stage. The fact that he was so disillusioned with his car in Spain was very notable and enough to put him on the watch list.

Two Bets Worth A Look

There are two bets which look worth striking early.

The first is for both Alpines to finish in the points. The car has the pace. Developments are going well and both drivers have shown good pace recently.

Of the seven races so far in 2023, Alpine have had both cars finishing in the points four times (and but for that unfortunate late race crash in Australia it would have been five) and more importantly in the last three races.

Their qualifying pace has really picked up. In the last three race weekends, Gasly’s average qualifying position has been 5.33, Ocon’s 6.33. In the last two qualifying sessions they have had a car finish 4th in qualifying.

Compare that to their averages for the first four qualifying sessions. 14.8 for Gasly and 9.75 for Ocon. That is a very impressive change in fortunes. Alpine finished 6th and 9th here last year and Alonso was second in qualifying in a wet session.

2023 Canadian GP Tip: 2 points Alpine to have a double points finish @ 2.00 with Boylesports

The second is breaking my don’t back the same driver twice ‘rule’, but there is enough value to have a modest bet.

2023 Canadian GP Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to finish in the top 6 @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes

Ocon has finished 6th in two of his three races here, including last year for Alpine. The car is improving nicely and while operationally the team have been lacking, they are due plenty of good results going forward.

There will be the usual updates for qualifying and on raceday when we will have a better idea of form and more importantly, the weather.

-JamesPunt