2023 Canadian GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2023 Canadian GP Raceday Update
We were out of luck with our bet on Leclerc and he wasn’t a happy camper with the Ferrari strategists after the session. James has more bets for today, check out his 2023 Canadian GP Raceday update is below.
2023 Canadian GP Raceday
A wet qualifying session carried on the theme of a very messy Canadian GP weekend. Red Bull and Max Verstappen executed the session perfectly and he starts from pole for the third race in a row. He has converted all four of his 2023 pole positions into race wins and he is a 1.30 shot to make it five later today.
The weather for race day is for a cloudy but dry day with air temperatures of 18 degrees. There is only a 5% chance of very light rain, so the chaos has likely subsided.
The problem with the mixed conditions and cancelled FP1 is that we haven’t got that much of a picture of who is going to go well on a dry track.
Red Bull
Once again start with one driver on pole and the other outside the top 10. This is the fourth time this season that this has been the case and for all of the excellence of the car, they haven’t really nailed Saturdays very often.
Perez now starts from 12th as his season continues to unravel. Perez has a poor record here so it was no great surprise to see him be one of the losers in the wet weather lottery yesterday. He now needs to keep a cool head and try and get as much out of the race as he can.
He has the best car, it has a super powerful DRS and he has three zones in which to deploy it. In Spain he started 11th and finished 4th. At Monaco he started from the pits and was classified 16th. In Australia he started last and finished 5th. He should be looking at a top 4 today. He finished 3rd here for Sauber in 2012 but since then he has a best finish of 5th and only three top ten finishes.
Aston Martin
Another lobsided team and again Alonso is starting at the sharp end of the grid while Stroll is in the midfield, starting 16th after picking up a 3 place grid penalty for impeding Ocon. Alonso knows he has two chances of beating Verstappen, slim and none and slim has left town. Even this upgraded Aston Martin is lacking straight line power and this track rewards good top speeds.
Stroll has started from outside the top 10 twice this season and he failed to score in either. Alonso’s job will be to hold off the two Mercedes of Hamilton and Russell behind him. Stroll doesn’t have a great home race record. Three minor points finishes and he has his work cut out to make it four today.
Mercedes
Still riding the upgrade wave. Starting 3rd and 4th after Hulkenberg’s penalty gives them a chance to get back to back double podium finishes. Their race pace is better than their qualifying pace, but the cool track conditions will be a bit of a two edged sword today.
They might struggle for grip in the first lap or two and that might allow Ocon to make a move on one of them, but once the tyres are warmed up, their pace will be good and tyre wear equally so. The Mercedes vs. Aston Martin battle will be a good test for both teams’ upgrades.
Earlier in the season, the Aston was having no problems dealing with the Mercs but with the DRS for the following Mercs, the boot could be on the other foot.
Haas
Have a habit of pulling off the qualifying shocks and Hulkenberg being second fastest was another, hot on the heels of Magnussen’s 4th in Miami. The Hulk later got a three place penalty for a red flag misdemeanour, and he starts 5th.
Their race pace is poor and while Hulkenberg qualified 8th in Spain, he could only finish 15th. Magnussen finished 10th from 4th in Miami, so just staying in the points will be a challenge for Hulkenberg.
Alpine
Have had another messy weekend. Friday was marred by mechanical problems for both cars. Qualifying saw Gasly getting shafted by Carols Sainz deciding to park his Ferrari at the apex of the final chicane. That dumped Gasly out in Q1. He moves up one spot on the grid after Tsunoda got a grid penalty.
Ocon qualified 6th so our bet for him to finish in the top 6 is still live. The double points bet not so much, but Gasly isn’t out of it just yet.
McLaren
Got the conditions they needed to max out in qualifying. They didn’t quite manage it. Piastri crashed in Q3 just as the rain was getting heavier. The yellow flag meant Norris had to abort his flying lap and he was set to improve his time.
They now start 7th and 8th but are likely to struggle a bit. Norris had looked quite good on Friday but the car lacks straight line pace and that will be a big handicap on this layout. Norris seems to finish 17th or 9th and with faster cars behind him, 9th would be a good result.
Williams
Were expected to enjoy the track characteristics in Montreal. Its low downforce nature and emphasis on straight line performance is very Williams friendly. Alex Albon does have faster cars behind him, but he could be a bit of the cork in the bottle in 9th. Sargent is out the back as usual.
Ferrari
Looked very good on Friday but throw in some tricky conditions and they go to pieces. From being very happy on Friday, and being touted as big threats to Red Bull, their two drivers start 10th and 11th.
Leclerc sounded very pissed off again yesterday, disagreeing with the team’s strategy while Sainz was behaving like an idiot. The big question is can they regain their Friday pace and if so, will they be able to manage the tyre deg better than before?
They are hard to fancy as they simply excel in getting the worst possible result from every situation.
Alfa Romeo
The car, or at least Bottas, looked good on Friday. Bottas is a track specialist and he was 7th in FP2 and 9th in FP3 but it all went tits up in qualifying. Zhou’s car developed a misfire and was out in Q1, starting last. Bottas now starts 14th and he has started there once before, in Jeddah and he finished 18th. Can he recover on what is a very strong track for him?
Alpha Tauri
Were not expected to go well here and starting 17th and 19th, they aren’t.
Raceday View
We don’t quite know the kind of advantage Red Bull have here due to the messy practice sessions, but they have won the last two races by margins of 28 seconds and 24 seconds. It would be a surprise to see anything other than a Verstappen victory. Who will fill the podium spaces behind him?
Mercedes are in the ascendancy. Their tails are up after finally ditching the troublesome design of 2022. Their drivers are buzzing and hungry.
Alonso will be a tough nut to crack, but he now has some heat. He has been a little flattered by Ferrari being poor in races and Mercedes starting the season with a the wrong design. Ferrari remain a basket case, but he now has two Mercedes breathing down his neck, and Mercedes who have shown consistently good race pace.
Mercedes finished 3rd and 4th here last year in a car that was well shy of this new revised one. They have to be looking at a double podium finish.
2023 Canadian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Mercedes Double Podium Finish @ 4.00 with BET365, Unibet
We have Ocon for a top 6 finish and he is well placed to do so. He should be able to get Hulkenberg soon enough and then he has to allow only one of the likes of Perez, and the two Ferrari’s to overhaul him. Reliability was poor on Friday for both Alpines so hopefully that has been sorted.
I was close to picking Bottas for a points finish here ante post. He was 5.00 on Thursday and was odds on in places after free practice. He is back out to 3.50 after a disappointing qualifying. Bottas excels on low grip surfaces and with this track having been washed clean by the rain, a low grip and evolving surface is what the drivers will be facing.
Zhou got his Alfa Romeo home in the points (9th) after starting 13th in Barcelona and I’ll take the chance that Bottas can do something similar. His dry weather pace was there and with the lack of fast corners here, he has a track that will suit the Alfa better than most.
