2023 Champions Day Ascot Preview & Tips – DS
2023 Champions Day Ascot Preview
Well, it looks like our soft ground e/w lucky 15 was a waste of time. Firstly, Graignes didn’t get in as third reserve and will return a non-runner. Secondly, Term Of Endearment, a heavy ground specialist, will now race on the currently good to soft inner track. The reason? Because the outer track was soft, heavy in places. I’d be looking for my supplement back if I owned her. An absolute disgrace of a decision but the show must go on. 2023 Champions Day Ascot previews and tips are below.
1.15 – British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2)
With the ease in the ground unlikely to suit Coltrane, this looks to be between two of them. Kyprios, the Champion Stayer of 2022 and Trueshan, the Prix Du Cadran winner last month. The O’Brien horse has been made favourite at 5/4 with 2/1 the best available about Alan King’s charge. Kyprios has won on easy ground and Trueshan loves it too, so they are hard to separate and there is no juice left in their odds.
The e/w value probably lies with Sweet William. He handled heavy ground very well at Goodwood in August (14f) and he was far from disgraced on his first stakes start at Doncaster last month.
Rab Havlin’s mount finished 1.25L behind Trueshan at Donny over 18f on soft ground. This slightly shorter trip should suit him and he should be rated higher than 108 on the back of that last run. It is hard to make a case for anything else in this race at bigger odds so at 10/1, Sweet William is the each way selection.
2023 Champions Day Ascot Tip: Sweet William e/w @ 10/1
1.50 – British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)
We have already backed two in this. My initial ante-post bet a month ago was Run To Freedom at 33/1. I was hoping it would come up good to soft but it is going to be a lot more testing than that. Will he handle it? It is impossible to know until he runs on it. You can be sure he’ll be trying his best though so hopefully, he handles conditions well. Reasoning for backing him is here.
My soft ground selection for this earlier in the week was Vadream at 14s. She has halved in price since Monday and is now around 13/2 in most places. The ground has come good for her and she should be thereabouts at the business end.
I was half tempted by Ocean Quest but the more I look at him, the more I think his heavy ground win at Navan was a once off. The vast majority of his form is on yielding or quicker and his last run at the Curragh (6f sft), his first time back on testing ground since that Navan win, might be a more accurate reflection of his soft ground ability.
Kinross is obviously the one to beat but I’m happy to stick with my two original selections. Fingers crossed we can nick some e/w money.
2023 Champions Day Ascot Tip: Already Advised: Run To Freedom e/w @ 33/1; Vadream e/w @ 14/1 NAP
2.25 – British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)
Henry De Bromhead and Term Of Endearment’s owners probably can’t believe what is after happening with the changing of the track. Their mare is an out and out muck savage and the prospect of bottomless ground was probably what convinced connections so supplement her. It was definitely what convinced me to put her up but if the ground is good to soft, she’s more than likely goosed.
As an alternative, I’m going to take a punt on Running Lion. Oisin Murphy maintains the partnership and this son of Roaring Lion has solid soft ground form in the book. He lowered the colours of Sumo Sam in a Newmarket G3 back in May (10f sft) and that filly has since proved she is the real deal with plenty of cut in the ground.
It looks like this filly has been campaigned with a backend campaign on soft ground in mind. She was given two months off after a poor run in France in June and she has returned with two decent efforts at Salisbury (10f gd) and Newmarket (12f gd/fm). Now that she gets soft ground for the first time since that Newmarket win, Running Lion is worth backing e/w at odds of 20/1.
2023 Champions Day Ascot Tip: Running Lion e/w @ 20/1 (4 places); Term Of Endearment already advised @ 20/1
3.05 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)
As was the case with Term Of Endearment, I put Angel Bleu up because of the likelihood of heavy ground. Thankfully, this race is on the straight course so the ground should be close to perfect for him.
Obviously, the 3yos have better claims on paper but the ground is a worry for Tahiyra. Paddington has won on heavy and soft and he looks a worthy favourite. Big Rock has also won on heavy and he’ll try to run the finish out of his rivals from the front. Chaldean landed the 2000 Guineas on soft but that form is looking pretty weak.
I’m happy to take my chances with Angel Bleu. He’ll be suited by a strongly run race and he will relish the conditions. Winning might be beyond him but at 25/1, fingers crossed he can run on late for a place.
2023 Champions Day Ascot Tip: Angel Bleu already advised @ 25/1 NB
3.45 – Champion Stakes (Group 1)
The feature and a field of nine will line up in the stalls. Horizon Dare is the fav for France. He’ll be looking to follow in the hoofsteps of Sealiway, the winner of this race for the same connections in 2021. He’s won and placed on heavy but his last four wins came on much nicer ground than he’ll encounter today.
Mostahdaf, on the figures, is the best horse in this race. Rated 128, he’s on a hat trick of successive G1 wins. However, those two wins came on good and good to firm. His last start on slow ground saw him beaten 43L at Longchamp. He has won at Listed level on soft but he’s probably 10lbs better on faster ground.
King of Steel is another one that would likely prefer drier conditions. A big brute of a horse, he has shaped well the last twice since winning at the Royal Meeting (12f gd/fm) but I’m not sure this test is ideal for him. Bay Bridge is 0/2 on soft ground and he’s another one that would prefer if the rain stayed away.
Big Price
One horse that is going to love the ground is Dubai Honour and he looks a big price at 33/1. He chased home Sealiway in this in 2021 and last year he was only 4L behind Bay Bridge in 6th. Admittedly, he had a couple of prep runs heading into those two renewals but this year, he’ll be having his first run since a disappointing effort in the Eclipse on unsuitable ground.
William Haggas worked him a week ago and said he’d have to see how he came out of it before deciding whether to run here or go to Italy for a G2. Clearly, he must have been pretty happy with his son of Pride Of Dubai and I’d imagine the weather played a part in the decision making process too.
Dubai Honour’s form figures over 10f on soft ground read 11. That includes a G2 win at Longchamp in 2021 and a G1 win in Australia earlier this year. James Doyle has two wins and a second from five rides on this lad and he gets the leg up this afternoon. Dubai Honour won in Australia on his return from six months off so he can go well fresh and at 33/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
2023 Champions Day Ascot Tip: Dubai Honour e/w @ 33/1
4.25 – Balmoral Handicap (Class 2)
I was gutted to see that Graignes didn’t get in. I was sure enough horses would come out at declarations but he was only third reserve and at 1pm on Friday he was declared a non-runner. At least we will get our ante-post stake back and I’m going to reinvest it on Bennetot.
Trained by David O’Meara, this horse was formerly trained in France by Edouard Montfort. He has some pretty solid form over there, with one run in particular suggesting that he may well be very nicely treated off a mark of 95.
Stakes Form
That run came in a Listed race at Saint Cloud in March. He finished fourth, beat 3L for the win by The Revenant (rated 115). He’s been placed in G1 and G2 company and was considered good enough to run in the Champion Stakes here last season. Monarchic was behind him in fifth and he has since finished third in a G3 behind Spycatcher (rated 110) with Kevin Blake’s ‘exciting’ stallion prospect Bouttemant back in fourth.
Bennetot was sold in July and current connections splashed out £110k for him. He didn’t repay any of that investment on his first run for the yard at Haydock (8f hvy) but I’m hoping he needed that. Neil Callan has been booked for the ride and he is 2/14 with six top 4s for the yard in the last five seasons.
The 4yo son of Ectot has produced the two best runs of his career on soft and very soft and I’m hoping his last run was a prep for this. If he repeats the level of form he showed when beat 3L by The Revenant earlier this season, he is capable of running a big race here at odds of 40/1.
