2023 Champions Weekend Curragh Sunday Tips – DS
2023 Champions Weekend Curragh Preview
Apart from Serious Notions, Saturday was an unmitigated disaster. Hopefully we can bounce back today, 2023 Champions Weekend Curragh tips are below.
1.50 – Bold Lad Handicap (Premier)
At around 16/1 Arnhem looks a cracking e/w bet in this valuable sprint handicap. Now trained by MG Quinn in County Down, this 7yo has unfinished business in this race. Two years ago he was beaten less than a length by Big Gossey off 82 and he is back for a repeat bid off just 2bs higher. Big Gossey re-opposes and Arnhem is better off at the weights with that rival today.
Quinn’s charge is mustard when he gets good ground over 6f at the Curragh. He won over C&D on good just two starts ago and his overall form figures in those conditions read 21. He has also run well plenty of times here over 5f, including a close third in the Joe McGrath Handicap off 85 (5f gd).
Quinn has enlisted the services of Chris Hayes for the ride. He was beat a head at Navan on his only previous try aboard the son of Dandy Man so he’ll be keen to make amends. Last time out Arnhem ran a lovely race at Navan, beat a length on ground plenty soft for him and he is 5lbs better off with the winner now. With no rain forecast unil 5pm, back Arnhem e/w at odds of 16/1.
2023 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Arnhem e/w @ 16/1 (6 places) NAP
2.25 – Blandford Stakes (Group 2)
Eleven fillies will go to post in this 10f G2. No less than six of them are trained by either Aidan or Joseph O’Brien. The Senior O’Brien trains the 4/1 second favourite Jackie Oh and Ryan Moore rides. By Galileo, this 3yo has shown a clear preference for soft ground. She has form figures of 1/2/1 on soft/heavy compared to 5/0 on good and good to firm. Her backers will be hoping the forecast rain arrives earlier than forecast.
The money has come for Araminta this morning. Henry Candy’s daughter of Gleneagles is favourite now at 7/2 and she’ll have the assistance of Colin Keane in the plate. She is 3/4 this season, her sole defeat coming on heavy at Goodwood.
She is 2/2 on good ground, she landed a Chantilly G3 (9f gd) last time out and the runner up has franked that form. Candy has a good record with his Irish raiders but the worry is the form of the yard. No winner for 52 days and Run To Freedom was well below par yesterday.
Bigger Odds
With doubts about the top two, I’ll take a chance on Mashia at around 18/1. Dermot Weld is in form and this daughter of Kingman has improved for each of her three runs. She landed a Naas (8f gd/yld) maiden on debut in May, beating Unless by 1.75L. She was then beaten in a Gowran conditions race by subsequent Listed winner Moon De Vega.
Last time out she finished 3rd in the G3 Snow Fairy here (9f gd) behind Red Riding Hood and American Sonja. It was her first run for three months so she ought to come on for it and she shaped as though she’d be more effective over this extra furlong. She was closing on Red Riding Hood close to home and I’d be hopeful she can turn that form around. At odds of 18/1, Mashia is the e/w selection.
2023 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Mashia e/w @ 18/1 (4 places)
2.55 – Flying Five Stakes (Group 1)
We have already backed Get Ahead for this race at odds of 66/1. I was praying that the forecast rain would stay away and it looks like my wish has been granted. There’s been a few quid for her this morning, hopefully she runs a big race now. You can read my reasoning for backing her here.
If the rain had come, I would have put Moss Tucker up as an alternative. That being said, he won as he liked here last time on fast ground and that was arguably the best run of his career. As anyone who has followed me over the past year will know, I have believed that Mossy is a G1 sprinter ever since his run in the Prix L’Abbaye last season. I can’t wait to see how he gets on against the top two in the betting.
Last night one firm pushed Moss Tucker out to 40/1 and I must admit, I had a small nibble because the rain was forecast to arrive earlier. He’s into 22s now, even though the rain looks like it won’t arrive until after this race. I’m going to stick with Get Ahead as the sole selection for the blog but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Moss Tucker run huge too. Hopefully they both beat Bouttemant!
2023 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Get Ahead e/w already advised @ 66/1
3.25 – Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group 1)
The money came for Fallen Angel overnight/this morning. Karl Burke and Danny Tudhope fired in a winner at Leopardstown yesterday so stable confidence will be high. This daughter of Too Darn Hot is 2/3 so far and she looked ultra impressive landing a Newmarket G3 last time out. Soprano should have franked that form at Salisbury in midweek and Carolina Reaper came out of the race and won a G3 subsequently.
Ylang Ylang remains the very warm favourite at a shade of odds against. She is 2/2 and she landed a Leopardstown G3 on her last outing. By Frankel, this filly beat Vespertilio by 1.5l the last day and she re-opposes here.
The McCreery filly scored in a G2 on her next start so she clearly improved plenty for that run, the question is whether Ylang Ylang will match that improvement. I’m not sure there should be such a big difference in their odds (6/5 vs 11/2) and if I was backing either of them, Vespertilio certainly makes more appeal at the current prices.
Overlooked
One that has been totally overlooked in the market is She’s Quality. Trained by Jack Davison, I’ve been following this filly since she made her debut. A good judge told me to keep an eye out for her after she ran in a barrier trial and she ran a cracker here on debut, finishing 4.5l 3rd behind Ylang Ylang in a 7f maiden at 40/1.
Next time, on softer ground, she ran a huge race to finish 2.5L fourth in a G3 here (6f sft). Davison dropped her back into maiden company to get her off the mark on her next run but she was just edged out by Navassa Island. The daughter of Acclamation finally shed her maiden tag at Newbury (6f gd) last time out, winning a class 2 maiden as she liked.
The step back up to 7f is a slight worry but her dam won over 7f and stayed a mile and she is a half to three time 7f winner Highland Dress (and also to dual 7f and multiple Curragh winner Make A Challenge). I think she has certainly achieved more than Red Viburnum (8/1 here) and now that she has more experience, she could close the gap to Ylang Ylang. At odds of 50/1, a small e/w interest on She’s Quality is advised.
2023 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: She’s Quality e/w @ 50/1
4.00 – Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Group 1)
Just six run but what a race this could turn out to be. City Of Troy vs Bucanero Fuerte vs Henry Longfellow. These three juveniles have already amassed seven wins between them. The two Ballydoyle colts landed Group 2s on their last starts while Adrian Murray’s stable star was an emphatic winner of a Group 1 here on his last outing.
The Aidan O’Brien horses both won over this 7f trip last time but it is an unknown for Bucanero. However, his pedigree and run style suggest that this distance should be well within his compass. From a personal perspective, I’d love to see Adrian Murray prevail against Coolmore but from a betting point of view, I’m happy to leave this race alone. No bet.
2023 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: No Bet
4.35 – Irish St Leger (Group 1)
Four runners and without a doubt, the worst G1 of the weekend. The main storyline is the return of Kyprios after a long absence. Hamish came close to beating him in this last season and this is probably the minimum trip for him. Last year’s St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov looks the biggest threat on paper and he is 3/1. I have absolutely zero interest in this race so we’ll move swiftly on. No bet.
2023 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: No bet
5.10 – Tattersalls Super Auction Sales Stakes (2yo)
It is hard to believe there is such a poor turnout for this valuable sales race. There is prize money all the way down to tenth (2.5K) and the winner takes home a whopping 147.5k. Native American, one of just two previous winners in this field, is odds on for Fahey and Keane. Bar the unraced horses he is the least exposed and it was an impressive win by the son of Sioux Nation at York on debut.
Eve Johnson-Houghton is flying at the minute and she won this last season. She fires two bullets this time, Mercian Warrior and the only other winner in the field, Revenue. Mercian Warrior is shorter in the betting despite having achieved less in two Windsor runs. If I was backing either of those two, it would have to be Revenue at 16/1.
The form of his win is nothing to write home about and you can put a line through his second outing on account of slow ground. On his last start he ran very well behind Toca Madera, to whom he was conceding 2lbs, and that horse has since run 2nd and 3rd in a pair of G2s. It looks like he has been put away for this race since then so at odds of 16/1, Revenue is the e/w selection.
2023 Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Revenue e/w @ 16/1
5.45 – Northfields Handicap (Premier)
With a heavy downpour forecast for 5pm, it may well have turned soft by the time of this race. Johnny Murtagh has won it two of the last three years and his two runners here both have claims. The bookies haven’t missed them though so we’ll look elsewhere for a bit of e/w value.
The one I’ll take a chance on at 22/1 is Didn’thavemuchtodo for Baby Joseph and Conor Stone-Walsh. This 4yo filly gets in off 97 for her handicap debut but with her pilot’s claim she is effectively in off 90. On her best form this year, that mark looks more than workable.
She has run in Listed company the last twice. On her last start at Killarney (8f yld) she just failed behind Salt Lake City. Howyoulikethat was 1.5L back in third and she ran a very respectable race at Leopardstown yesterday, beat just over 4L in a G2.
On her penultimate start over this C&D she ran into fourth, beaten 4.5L by Unless but finishing just 0.75L behind the third Alanya. She was conceding 8lbs to the winner who is now rated 106 and she is just 13/2 for the G2 Blandford earlier on this card. A drop of rain won’t inconvenience this filly and she’ll be well suited by a strongly run race. At odds of 22/1, Didn’thavemuchtodo is the e/w selection.
