2023 Champions Weekend Leopardstown Tips – DS
2023 Champions Weekend Leopardstown Preview
What a weekend of racing this is. Two countries, four tracks, sixteen stakes races (including seven Group 1s) and five Premier/Heritage handicaps. If that menu doesn’t get the juices flowing, nothing will. Dave Stevos is going to preview all the big races and he is hoping to continue in solid form. First up is his 2023 Champions Weekend Leopardstown preview, find out who he is backing below. You can see his tips for Ascot, Haydock and Kempton here.
1.45 – Ingabelle Stakes (Listed)
A Listed race over just short of a mile for the juvenile fillies. Ger Lyons runs two here and on jockey bookings, Apricot Ice looks the first string. However, Serious Notions could give Gary Carroll a nice spin now returned to the scene of her debut and best run.
This daughter of Advertise ran here in a maiden over 7f back in June. Ridden on the inner just behind the early leader, she switched out to pass that rival 2f out and she looked home for all money as they hit the 50 yard mark. However, Buttons just managed to pull level as they approached the line and Lyons’ filly missed out in a head bobber by a nose.
Ascot Flop
Content, the 15/8 fav here, was another neck or so back in third. That rival flopped at Royal Ascot next time, just like Serious Notions did at the Curragh. Two weeks ago, Apricot Ice had her first run over 7f here and she finished 1.25L behind Content. Serious Notions got closer on her debut so on that formline, there shouldn’t be such a big difference in price between the Lyons’ fillies.
Obviously, the fact that Keane prefers Apricot Ice suggests she must be working better at home. We don’t know that for sure though and I’d rather go with the available evidence on the track. At odds of 25/1, Serious Notions can hopefully nick some place money from a nice draw in stall 1.
2023 Champions Weekend Leopardstown Tip: Serious Notions e/w @ 25/1
2.15 – Champions Juvenile Stakes (Group 2)
Ballydoyle’s debut winner Diego Velazquez is all the rage for this juvenile G2. Ryan Moore rides, he is nicely drawn in stall 2 and he looked a very exciting prospect at the Curragh. He won that 7f (gd) maiden by nearly 5L and the son of Frankel is just 4/7 to follow up.
Atlantic Coast, a son of Kodiac trained by Baby Joseph, also won well on his Curragh debut over 7f. That was on good to yielding, it’ll be interesting to see how he goes on this quicker ground. Joseph also runs Bad Desire and at a huge price, he could surprise with a big run.
Top Sire
By sire of the moment Wootton Bassett, this colt ran a fine race on debut at Galway. He had to give best to Navy Seal but that horse had a run under his belt and he is clearly well regarded judging from his entries (Beresford/Royal Lodge/Dewhurst).
Declan McDonogh’s mount didn’t quite last home over the extended mile on heavy at Galway. You’d imagine this ground will suit him better. Chindit is by Wootton Bassett and out of an Oasis Dream dam and his best form has come at a mile on fast ground so hopefully, Bad Desire is cut from a similar cloth.
Since Galway he has been taken out of two maidens on account of the ground. It was good when he was withdrawn from a Leopardstown maiden and it was soft when he was a non-runner at Roscommon. Maybe connections have been waiting for proper quick ground and he should get that today.
He’ll need to improve plenty on his debut effort but in the hope that good to firm brings out the best in him, Bad Desire is worth chancing e/w for small stakes at 28/1.
2023 Champions Weekend Leopardstown Tip: Bad Desire e/w @ 28/1
2.45 – Matron Stakes (Group 1)
A one horse race according to the bookies. Tahiyra is evens to add a fourth G1 to her resume for Hayes and Weld. Her sole defeat to date came in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket behind Mawj. That was her seasonal reappearance so the defeat can be excused and she subsequently landed the Irish version before going on to win the Coronation Stakes at Ascot.
That wasn’t her flashiest ever performance but Dermot Weld has freshened her up and she returns with her trainer in red hot form. Weld also runs the second favourite, the 2022 Irish Guineas winner Homeless Songs. Oisin Murphy rides and she is next best in the betting at 8/1. She is actually rated a pound higher than her stablemate but she has to give her younger rival 5lbs and she lacks a recent run.
Bigger Odds
Of those at bigger odds, Clever And Cool appeals most. This filly comes with risks attached due to her propensity to miss the break. However, she has a serious engine and she beat a very talented filly in Matilda Picotte last time out in a Tipperary G3 (7.5f yld/sft). That was her second win from her last three starts, the other coming in Listed company at Cork (7f sft) earlier last month.
The ground will be different today but this daughter of Vocalised goes on any surface. She ran well after missing the kick in the Cambridgeshire on good and she also scored on quick ground at Naas back in July.
The fact she is turned out again so quickly after her Tipp win suggests she came out of the race well and Rory Cleary will ride her to pick up more black type. Once she doesn’t lose too much ground at the start, Clever And Cool can hopefully stay on late for place money at odds of 40/1.
2023 Champions Weekend Leopardstown Tip: Clever and Cool e/w @ 40/1
3.20 – Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1)
The feature of the day and nine will go to post. The 3yos Auguste Rodin and King Of Steel head the market. They are fighting it out for favouritism at 7/2 and given the O’Brien horse’s patchy record, the English raider makes more appeal.
The older horses cannot be discounted here. Alflaila and Nashwa are serious contenders and Onesto will be looking to go one better than he did in this last season. This does not appeal as a betting race to me. It is hard to make a case for any of the outsiders and I can see the market leaders dominating. At the prices, I’d narrowly favour Onesto but he’s too short for the blog. No bet.
2023 Champions Weekend Leopardstown Tip: No Bet
3.55 – Dullingham Park Stakes (Group 2)
The most overpriced horse in this G2 is Howyoulikethat. Miss Hilary McLoughlin trains and Ben Coen takes the ride. This son of Requinto is having a fine season. Since a middling return at the Curragh in May he has run five fine races, including a couple of decent efforts at this track.
He got his win in July down in Killarney, landing a handicap in emphatic style off 87. That saw the handicapper hike his mark up to 96 and McLoughlin wasted no time in stepping her gelding up in class into stakes company. He was far from disgraced in the Desmond Stakes (G3) here, running on well from the back for fourth, finishing just 1.5L behind Mutasarref in third.
Career Best
At Killarney last time out this 6yo produced a career best in a Listed heat. Dropped out early by Rachael Blackmore, he came wide with his challenge and he absolutely flew home for third, just 1.5L behind the 104 rated Salt Lake City, to whom he was conceding 6lbs. He is a pound better off with that rival here so there should be very little between them again.
McLoughlin’s charge has won in handicap company over this C&D and he has run well on three of his four starts at Leopardstown. He has 5.75L to find with Lord Massusus on their meeting here in the Desmond last month but that race didn’t really go to plan for Howyoulikethat. I think he can close that gap granted a stronger early gallop. Ben Coen is 2/5 aboard this fella, hopefully he can produce him late for place money at odds of 50/1.
2023 Champions Weekend Leopardstown Tip: Howyoulikethat e/w @ 50/1 (4 places)
4.30 – Paddy Power Stakes (Group 3)
Just seven runners and on a day like today, there are far better punting opportunities elsewhere. We backed Adelaide River in the Irish Derby at huge odds and he ran a mighty race to finish second. He proved that was no fluke at Longchamp last time and this trip/ground could be ideal for him.
Al Aasy and White Birch are no mugs and they both have obvious claims. The bookies haven’t missed them though and it is hard to see Mashhoor or Young Ireland pulling off an upset. Lafayette would probably prefer slower ground so I’m happy to sit this one out. No bet.
2023 Champions Weekend Leopardstown Tip: No bet
5.05 – Petingo Handicap (Premier)
Golden Twilight has placed for us on multiple occasions but the draw gods have not smiled on him. He will start from stall 16 and Ronnie Whelan has decided to ride stablemate Ceallach. That horse beat Golden Twilight at Dundalk last time but Golden Twilight is a lot better off at the weights today. If he had a better draw and was a bigger price, I’d be all over him but 14/1 looks about right.
Instead, I’ll take a chance on Nibiru at much bigger odds. He is also drawn wide in stall 15 but unlike the Halford horse, he’ll most likely be ridden cold. Siobhan Rutledge takes the ride on the 8yo and this horse is due a win at Leopardstown.
Unlucky 2nd
On his last visit (12f gd) he was an extremely unlucky second behind Burren Song, beat a neck off 81. He is in off just 2lbs higher today and with Rutledge’s claim, he is effectively 7lbs better off with the winner today.
His three runs since haven’t been as good but I’d imagine Tony Martin had his eye on this valuable pot. Back in February Nibiru ran a huge race in a top class handicap hurdle at this track so he clearly likes it here and with 150k in prize money up for grabs, surely he’ll be doing his best. If he is held up luck will obviously be required but if he gets the gaps at the right times, hopefully Nibiru will outrun his odds of 33/1.
2023 Champions Weekend Leopardstown Tip: Nibiru e/w @ 33/1 (5 places) NB
5.40 – Sovereign Path Handicap (Premier)
He isn’t getting any younger at 9yo but even so, Ice Cold In Alex has to be worth a couple of quid e/w here. Wayne Hassett takes off a valuable 7lbs which negates the fact that Ken Condon’s charge is 6lbs out of the handicap. He’ll be effectively running off a mark of 74 and on his last run at 7f, he is looking extremely dangerously handicapped.
That last run over 7f came at the Curragh in May off 84. He found just Verhoyen too good, finishing a fine 2nd beat 2.5L. Since then Condon has campaigned Ice Cold In Alex exclusively over 6f. He did win over that distance last season off 82 but his previous three wins all came over 7f. The way he has finished off his races the last twice suggests he is ready to step back up to this trip.
This son of Olden Times has rarely run a bad race at this track over 7f. He won off 81 in 2018 over C&D, he was beat 0.5L in this race off 85 in 2019 and his overall form figures at Leopardstown at 7f read 21334. Wayne Hassett has already landed a couple of big pots this season, if he can time his challenge right on Ice Cold In Alex, another one is not out of the question. At odds of 66/1, he is the each way selection.
