2023 Cheltenham Festival Favourites – Lump or Lay?

by Dave Stevos | Mar 9, 2023

2023 Cheltenham Festival Favourites – Lump or Lay?

Our mission on this blog is finding winners at big odds. However, some punters prefer backing horses at shorter prices and in this preview, just like we did last year, we are going to weigh up the chances of some of the hottest 2023 Cheltenham Festival favourites. Is Constitution Hill a good thing? Will Shishkin make up for last year’s disappointing effort? Can Galopin Des Champs land the Gold Cup? Find out below.

Champion Hurdle – Constitution Hill

Odds: 1.33

Form: 111/11

Nicky Henderson’s 6yo son of Blue Bresil is the NAP of the week for many. Unbeaten under rules after five starts, with the last four coming in Grade 1 company. This horse hasn’t just been winning, he’s been absolutely destroying the opposition. On debut in a Novice at Sandown (16f gd/sft), he hosed up by 14L with the very useful Might I back in 2nd. Next, back at the same track, he hacked up on heavy, beating Jetoile by 12L in the G1 Tolworth.

On his final start of last season he headed for the Supreme where it seemed like Jonbon would provide him with his sternest test to date. Instead, Constitution Hill laughed at the opposition again, winning doing handstands by 22L. Henderson’s charge was clearly the number one Novice Hurdler by some distance, could he transfer that ability to the senior ranks?

The answer so far has been a resounding yes. Epatante, a classy mare who won this in 2020 and who was only 3.5L behind Honeysuckle in 2022, trailed home 12L behind Constitution Hill in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. They locked horns again at Kempton over the Xmas period and it was an even more emphatic win for the 6yo, this time by a 17L margin.

It is very difficult to pick holes in this horse. He ticks the Cheltenham form box, no horse has finished closer than 12L to him and it looks like State Man is the only possible danger. My only, very slight, worry would be that he is so fast over the hurdles, if he even clipped the top of one it might prove his undoing. That’s probably clutching at straws though because on all the available evidence, Constitution Hill looks pretty bulletproof. Lump away.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Favourites: Constitution Hill @ 1.33 – LUMP

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – Gerri Colombe

Odds: 2.75

Form: 11/11/111

Gordon Elliott has been patient with this 7yo son of Saddler Maker and it has paid off. Picked up for a cool £240k after winning a P2P at Lingstown in March 2020, he made his rules debut in a heavy ground bumper at Fairyhouse. He won that by a distance, then won another 6 weeks later at Naas by not quite as far. Elliott declined to go to any of the Spring festivals with him and he was put away until St Stephen’s Day 2021.

Gerri Colombe made his reappearance at Down Royal where he beat the useful Ailie Rose by 8.5L in a maiden hurdle (20f sft). Elliott then stepped him up to 23f (yld) at Thurles in January 2022 and he lowered the colours of Idas Boy and Churchstonewarrior. Again, Elliott decided that was enough for the season and he wasn’t seen again until November.

Back at Fairyhouse, he made his chasing debut and it was another pretty comfortable 2.75L win, with Bronn back in 2nd. At Limerick we finally saw Gerri Colombe in Graded company and he didn’t disappoint. He landed that G1 (19.5f hvy) by 4.25L, beating Adamantly Chosen. Then, last time at Sandown, he plundered the Scilly Isles, beating Balco Coastal, Thunder Rock and Monmiral. However, he did show some vulnerabilities there, especially in the jumping department.

Questions To Answer

It might seem strange to say that a horse unbeaten after 7 starts and on a hat trick of G1s has questions to answer, but he definitely does. Surely it has to be a worry that not once have we seen him race over a left handed course over jumps. Yes, he won a bumper at Naas, a left handed track, but the rest of his wins have come at Lingstown (P2P), Fairyhouse, Down Royal, Thurles, Limerick and Sandown.

Is there a reason why Elliott has avoided going left handed, or is it just a coincidence? In his hardest race to date, last time at Sandown, he started to drift to the right close to home and that doesn’t bode well for Cheltenham. Yes, there is no doubt that Gerri Colombe has a serious engine but some horses can be ordinary going one way round and top class going the other way. Without ever seeing this horse jump left handed in public, I’d definitely prefer to be a layer, maybe even for a place.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Favourites: Gerri Colombe @ 2.75 – LAY

Ryanair Chase – Shishkin

Odds: 1.73

Form: 1/F111/11111/11P/31

Shishkin featured in last year’s Lump or Lay preview and we got him wrong. I thought he would uphold Ascot form with Energumene in the Champion Chase, but the then 8yo ran an absolutely lifeless race and pulled up. Any hopes that it was a once off freak result were dashed on his return to action in the Tingle Creek. It was another pretty poor effort over the minimum trip as he trailed in well beaten behind Edwardstone and Greaneteen.

To be honest, I thought he was done after that run. His epic battle with Energumene at Ascot must have left a mark and he just doesn’t fancy it any more. How wrong I was. A wind procedure, a tongue tie and a step up in trip all combined to spark a revival and what a revival it was in the 21f Ascot Chase. He jumped and travelled like the old Shishkin to score by 16L from Pic D’Orhy, with Fakir D’oudairies another 6L back in 3rd.

Can He Back It Up?

The question now is whether he can back that run up just 26 days later. You could argue that Fakir D’oudairies didn’t run anywhere near to his best at Ascot and that Pic D’Orhy isn’t really up to G1 level but even so, Shishkin could only beat what was in front of him. Would Blue Lord have laid a glove on him at Ascot? Or Janidil? Probably not. And he doesn’t have anything as classy as Energumene taking him on in this either.

Some experts have said the dreaded ‘bounce factor’ could be a worry. My understanding is that a bounce is most likely to occur on a horse’s second run back after a long layoff, especially if they have had a hard race. However, Shishkin had already run at Sandown in December so for me, the ‘bounce factor’ is a non-issue. In fact, he might even improve for his second run after a wind op. If he does, they won’t get near him. There’s not much value left in his odds but even so, I’d rather be with him than against him. Lump.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Favourites: Shishkin @ 1.91 – Lump

Cheltenham Gold Cup – Galopin Des Champs

Odds: 2.88

Form: 1/2P611/11F1/11

Last, but not least, we have the Gold Cup favourite, Galopin Des Champs. Trained by Willie Mullins, this son of Timos laid down a marker at the Dublin Racing Festival. It was his first run at 24f over the larger obstacles and the big question was whether he would stay the trip. Paul Townend rode him a little bit more quietly than usual and he bounded clear in the closing stages to beat Stattler by 8 lengths.

The 7yo had previously shown all his best form at shorter over fences, though he did win a 24f G1 over hurdles at Punchestown in April 2021. He won the Martin Pipe over 20f at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival but last year, he fell in the Turners when he had the race in the bag. However, that wasn’t the first mistake he made in that race and that has to be a worry on his return to Prestbury Park.

Stamina Doubts

For me, stamina doubts still remain. Yes, he has won over 3 miles at Punchestown and Leopardstown but 26f at Cheltenham is a different kettle of fish. Will his jumping stand up to scrutiny over the last couple of fences after what will likely be a strongly run race? I’m not too sure. His sire Timos is a son of Sholokhov, the sire of Don Cossack, but on the dam side of his page there isn’t a whole lot of stamina.

This is going to be the hardest race he has competed in so far over 24f+. Last time at Leopardstown he beat Stattler by 8L and Fury Road by 8.75L. I can see Stattler closing the gap over this longer distance but he’ll also have to deal with the likes of last year’s winner A Plus Tard, Bravemansgame, the stout stayer Noble Yeats and my idea of the winner, Protektorat. His Leopardstown performance was impressive but even so, at odds of just 2.88 I am going to take Galopin Des Champs on. Lay.