2023 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Tips – DS
2023 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Preview
Another day, another dumpster fire. The less said about the day, the better. The highlight was Dancing On My Own getting pulled as it meant we got our money back. Wondering about what might finish last on Day 3? Dave Stevos’ 2023 Cheltenham Festival Thursday tips are below.
1.30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
After more rain fell on Wednesday, it’s going to be soft again at Cheltenham today. That won’t bother the 11/10 favourite Mighty Potter. Gordon Elliott’s son of Martaline is 3/3 over fences this season, though he has had to survive a couple of poor jumps. He has won on good to yielding, yielding and soft and if he puts in a clear round, he’ll be hard to beat.
Banbridge is a top class performer on his day, as he showed when beating Tommy’s Oscar here earlier this season. That was on good ground though and while the son of Doyen did win his maiden hurdle and a novice on soft ground, he is a far better horse on a sounder surface than he’ll get here. Mighty Potter beat him 18L on soft at Fairyhouse in December, it is hard to see him turning that around.
Two Bullets
Willie Mullins fires two bullets here. Paul Townend is on Appreciate It, a very talented horse on his day. He was a wide margin winner of the Supreme in 2021 and he wasn’t disgraced on his next start, a year later, behind Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle. His first two chase wins were pretty impressive bar one or two minor jumping errors but he came up short behind El Fabiolo over 17f at the DRF. He has already won a P2P over 24f and a bumper at 20f so the trip isn’t a worry and he has an obvious chance.
The interesting one at big odds is James Du Berlais. He made his debut for Mullins in the 2021 Champion Hurdle. That shows what he thinks of this horse and while he flopped in that race, he showed his ability next time when chasing Klassical Dream home in the Irish Stayers’ at Punchestown.
After two years off he retuned with a taking chase debut in January, beating Capilano Bridge by 15L. Perhaps the dreaded bounce factor played a part when he trailed in well beat behind Mighty Potter a month later. Obviously, that won’t be good enough form to win this but if you forgive him that effort, he clearly has enough ability to make his presence felt in this race.
Home Challenge
The home challenge will be spearheaded by Balco Coastal and Stage Star. It is hard to fancy either of them after seeing the massive gulf in class between the UK and Irish novices so far. Balco Coastal did manage to get within 1.75L of Gerri Colombe at Sandown (20f gd/sft) so he is at least proven at G1 level. The same can’t be said for Stage Star, a handicap winner over this C&D last time out.
The outsiders have a mountain to climb so the one to be on e/w is James Du Berlais. I’m willing to forgive him that last Leopardstown run and with ground concerns for Banbridge, he might just need to beat the two British horses to sneak place money. If he is at his best he could even put it up to the fav so at 18/1, James Du Berlais is the e/w selection.
2023 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Tip: James Du Berlais e/w @ 18/1
2.10 – Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle (Premier)
We’ve already backed Takarengo for the Pertemps, read why here. The other one I’ll take a chance on is Coltor. Roger Fell is best known for his exploits in valuable handicaps on the flat but he is trying to land a nice pot over hurdles with this son of Free Eagle. He’s had this horse since January 2023. Formerly trained by Dermot Weld in Ireland, he has shaped very nicely on his first two runs for Fell.
In late January he finished 3rd off 86 at Kempton on the flat and then he pitched up in a Pertemps Qualifier at Musselburgh. Sent off at 40/1, he made a mockery of those odds to finish a close 2nd behind Brandy McQueen off 135. That was on good ground but he has plenty of solid form on much softer ground than that.
This 6yo already has some course form in the book. He ran well in the Fred Winter two years ago, finishing 5th off 127. It was a fine effort over a trip that was too sharp for him and this test should suit a lot better. Kevin Brogan rides and he has a win and six top three finishes from just 13 rides for Fell and he was on board last time. This stiffer stamina test should suit better than Musselburgh and at 25/1, Coltor is worth chancing e/w.
2023 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Tip: Takarengo already advised e/w @ 66/1; Coltor e/w @ 25/1 NB (both 6 Places)
2.50 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)
A race that is all about Shishkin. If he turns up in the same form as at Ascot four weeks ago, he should win this. Now, it was one run on the back of two desperate efforts so maybe he isn’t one for maximum trust but it is always dangerous taking on a horse with his natural ability.
The biggest threat on paper is Blue Lord. His first two runs this season were excellent. A neck defeat of Tornado Flyer at Clonmel (20f sft/hvy) was followed by an 11L win over Captain Guinness at Leopardstown. However, the wheels came off somewhat at the DRF when he was beat 7L at 1/4 behind Gentleman De Mee. He hasn’t produced his best on two previous visits to Cheltenham and 6/1 looks short enough.
Ground To Suit Hitman
Now that he is back on softer ground, maybe Hitman can show his true ability. I really fancied him to run a big race in the King George but he bled and was pulled up. Clearly, he wasn’t right that day and the 24f trip combined with good ground probably conspired against him last time at Newbury. As he showed at Aintree last year, he is capable of mixing it at G1 level and I think Cheltenham could really suit him.
He’s won three chases in his career, all going left handed. His best performance came on soft ground at Haydock where he landed a class 2 graduation chase by 11L. The son of Falco has form figures of 1F322 at 20-21f on ground with soft in the description and on a line through Ridersonthestorm, he shouldn’t be a bigger price than Ga Law. If he is at his best this horse is capable of running to 165+ and if he does that, he should be thereabouts. At odds of 25/1, Hitman is the e/w selection.
2023 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Tip: Hitman e/w @ 25/1
3.30 – Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
We’ve already backed Ashdale Bob at 20s ante-post. The rain shouldn’t inconvenience Jessie Harrington’s charge too much and he should run well. One horse who will be thrilled with the weather is Dashel Drasher. He proved his credentials for this race with a smashing run on soft ground behind Gold Tweet last time. He was 3L behind the winner and Paisley Park was a further 6L back in 3rd yet the Scott horse is twice the price of the former winner.
Gold Tweet was impressive that day but Dashel Drasher lost little caste in defeat. Earlier this season he got to within 3.25L of Gold Cup contender Noble Yeats at Aintree and he found just Maries Rock too good at Cheltenham over 20f on his penultimate start.
Rain A Big Plus
This 10yo son of Passing Glance is an absolute warrior and the more rain that falls, the better it will suit him. His form figures over timber at Cheltenham read 122 and if it turns into a dogfight in the closing stages, this lad will go out on his shield. Is he as classy as the likes of Blazing Khal, Flooring Porter, Teahupoo and Gold Tweet? No, but what he lacks in class he makes up for with bravery and as his record of 10 wins and 9 top three finishes from 22 career starts over fences and hurdles shows, he hardly knows how to run a bad race. With a few firms paying 4 places, Dashel Drasher is worth chancing e/w at 33/1.
2023 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Tip: Ashdale Bob e/w @ 20/1; Dashel Drasher e/w @ 33/1 (both 4 places)
4.10 – Plate Handicap Chase (Premier)
I’ve already put Born By The Sea up for this race at 100s. He has form on soft but two of his best runs have come on better ground so I am worried about the rain. Danny Gilligan will claim 7lbs off his back and he has a nice racing weight so fingers crossed he runs a nice race. Given the size of this field it makes sense to back another horse, one that will definitely go on the rain sodden ground.
As we saw with Maskada yesterday, Henry De Bromhead’s chasers are always worth keeping onside. He runs two here and on jockey bookings, it looks like Marvel De Cerisy is the stables no.1 hope. However, he probably wants better ground than he gets here, whereas Champagne Gold will love the muck.
Coleman Booked
Aidan Coleman gets the leg up on this 8yo son of Presenting. He’s 0/7 when riding for De Bromhead in Ireland but in the UK, he is 5/17 with another top 4 finishes. He had a sighter aboard this fella at Punchestown on April when the ground was probably a shade too quick. The last time he got soft ground was at Wexford in July and he won that Beginners’ Chase by a neck. A decent run at Galway in a G3 Novice followed behind Visionarian and then on his last outing, he ran well to finish 2nd here on good ground over 20f.
That came off a mark of 141 and he is another pound higher today. It has been 146 days since that run but that isn’t a worry. Champagne Gold has run well fresh in the past and De Bromhead is well able to ready one after an absence. His best hurdle runs came on soft/heavy ground and this will be his first chance in a handicap chase with his favoured underhoof conditions. At odds of 33/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
2023 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Tip: Champagne Gold e/w @ 33/1; Born By The Sea e/w @ 100/1 (6 Places)
4.50 – Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
Luccia will be a tough nut to crack here. 4/4, goes on any ground and from a top yard. This will be her toughest test to date by far but she has looked a very talented mare so far. A deserved fav. However, she’s far too short for the blog and instead, it might be worth taking a punt on Jetara at odds of around 25/1.
She has improved a lot this season and she has some rock solid soft ground form in the book. She won a Listed bumper at Navan on her first try on soft and then she headed to Leopardstown for a maiden hurdle in December. In that 16f soft ground heat she ran a massive race, chasing home High Definition. The third has won a maiden by a wide margin since and Supreme 3rd Diverge was 15L behind Jetara back in 6th.
On her last start, a G3 at Fairyhouse (18f sft), She found just Ashroe Diamond too good by 1.25L. That mare got to within 4L of Marine Nationale in the Royal Bond previously and she wasn’t far off Il Etait Temps subsequently in a Leopardstown G1. All things considered, 25s looks a fairly big price about Jetara given that form and she should be bang there at the finish.
2023 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Tip: Jetara e/w @ 25/1 (4 Places) NAP
5.30 – Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Class 2)
Last up on Thursday is the Kim Muir and it is going to take a bog monster to win this. Last year Didero Vallis ran a cracker to finish 3rd on soft ground off a mark of 127. Venetia Williams pulled Chambard out of this year’s renewal which means that Didero gets in off an 8lbs lower mark. This son of Poliglote hasn’t fired this season but there’s been good in the description for all of his runs.
He has won on good, a long time ago, but three of his four wins have come on heavy. He has run at the festival three times, finishing 5th in the Plate off 135, pulling up on good to soft in this race in 2021 and then running a massive race to finish 3.5L 3rd off 127 last season.
In January he was beat just 1.25L off 123 and he had excuses for his next two runs. Lucy Turner finished 2nd on him in the 2019 Rowland Meyrick and you’d imagine she had the pick of Venetia Williams’ four runners. Maybe the 10yos best days are behind him but I think the ground has been the main issue for him and off 11lbs lower than his last winning mark, Didero Vallis is the e/w selection at 50/1.
2023 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Tip: Didero Vallis e/w @ 50/1 (5 places)
Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter
