2023 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tips – DS

by Dave Stevos | Mar 13, 2023

2023 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Preview

Unfortunately, we failed to boost our betting banks for the upcoming week on Saturday. Soldier’s Minute drifted and ran accordingly. Cerendipity looked like he hated the ground, his win on heavy must have been a flash in the pan. Hafeet Alain couldn’t overcome his rotten draw but at least Fine Casting landed place money for us at 16s, saving the blank. Hodd’s Girl ran a cracker, she just got caught too wide. The focus now switches to the biggest week of the NH season. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday preview and tips below.

1.30 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

The wait is over. The Cheltenham Festival is finally upon us and what a week lies ahead. After a wet few days, the going is soft for the opening stanza and that won’t be ideal for quite a few of the Supreme contenders. The favourite, Facile Vega, will be delighted with the recent rain. He would have been odds on for this only for a big hiccup last time out at Leopardstown.

The son of Walk In The Park and Quevega came into the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) with an air of invincibility surrounding him. However, High Definition took him on for the lead and the two of them started racing far too soon. Joseph O’Brien’s horse fell at the 4th but the damage had already been done. Facile Vega folded in the closing stages, paying the price for setting those insane early fractions.

Crazy Pace

Was it the horse that dictated that crazy gallop, or did Paul Townend lose the run of himself? I am siding towards the latter. He probably thought he was on a bulletproof machine that could handle anything he threw at him. Unfortunately, horses like that are few and far between and I would imagine he’ll be ridden more patiently here.

He won his bumper here on heavy, he beat Il Etait Temps easily on soft on his penultimate start and if you put a line through his last run, he is the one to beat. While he will enjoy the ground, Marine Nationale’s connections won’t be quite as happy. He prevailed in a driving finish with Irish Point on soft at Fairyhouse last time but surely, better ground would be more up his street.

Barry Connell’s horse is a dinger and having seen him in the flesh at Punchestown, I must admit I am a big fan. However, it was touch and go as to whether the son of French Navy would even run on soft ground in the Royal Bond last time, even though he won. The 4th in that race, Champ Kiely, has since won over 20f and is well fancied for the Ballymore. Irish Point also won nicely last weekend. The form is solid but if it was nicer ground at Cheltenham I’d be a lot more confident in Marine Nationale’s chances.

Mullins’ Brigade

Willie Mullins ran three in this last year but had to make do with just a place. This year he fires four bullets and after Facile, Il Etait Temps is the next best in the betting. He was impressive when winning at Leopardstown but his two main rivals fluffed their lines. He was highly tried last year and came up short and I’m not sure it’s wise to read too much into his wide margin DRF win. The jury is still out on him for me.

We were at Punchestown to see Diverge win his maiden on soft ground. As you can see, the son of Frankel is a strong, powerful looking horse and you couldn’t help but be impressed by the manner of his dominant win. The fact Willie now applies a tongue tie is interesting, but slightly worrying. Did he make a noise? As far as I can remember he wasn’t blowing overly hard post-race and if the new equipment elicits more improvement, this horse could give Patrick Mullins a nice spin.

Dark Raven hasn’t convinced with his jumping so far. However, there is no doubt that this son of Malinas has a pretty big engine. The low lying sun was a big help to him on debut at Leopardstown as a number of hurdles were omitted. The ones he did have to jump, he wasn’t too stylish over them. His jumping wasn’t great again at the DRF behind Il Etait Temps and that form won’t be good enough to win. If he jumped better, he might run on late for a place.

Best Of The Rest

The home challenge is spearheaded by Tahmuras. Paul Nicholls’ son of Falco is 4/4 over timber, including Listed and Grade 1 races the last twice. He’s won on soft, he’s won going left handed and if he was trained by Nicky Henderson, would he be as big as 10/1? He’s only got an official rating of 142, so the handicapper reckons the top Irish raiders are almost a stone better. We’ll find out if he is right at 1.30 on Tuesday.

If High Definition and JJ Slevin decide that they are going to try and make all here, this could be run at a breakneck gallop. We saw what happened when Facile Vega took him on and the way Diverge won last time suggests that those two might take them along. Willie will want to give Facile Vega a strong pace to settle off and those two should ensure he gets his wish. To be honest, I don’t see either of the likely front runners getting home.

Don’t Discount Bravo

Gordon Elliott, winner of this in 2017 with Labaik, relies on Doctor Bravo with Davy Russell jocked up. He beat The Big Doyen at Down Royal in his second maiden hurdle start and he previously chased home Dark Raven at Leopardstown when hurdles were omitted. His G3 run at Gowran last time was decent on bottomless ground and this slightly sounder surface should suit better. The 3L gap to Dark Raven isn’t insurmountable with the extra hurdles they’ll be jumping and he is definitely one to keep a close eye on.

Rare Edition has ability, but is he just a flat track bully? His three wins over timber have come on level tracks and he didn’t stay 19f last time at Huntingdon. Inthepocket has a good bit to find with Il Etait Temps on Fairyhouse running. However, his stamina could be an asset, especially if they go a mad gallop.

Chasing Fire is another lovely type who hasn’t put a hoof wrong yet over timber. Olly Murphy’s charge is 4/4 under rules, a bumper, a maiden hurdle and then two novices. He proved he could handle a testing finish at Sandown last time, you’d just worry that he lacks experience at this sort of level. The less rain that falls, the better it will suit him.

Who Wins?

So, who wins? Over 1100 words into this preview and still, I’m not sure. One thing I do know, is that the tactics in this race are going to be absolutely key. Surely it is going to be High Definition that takes them along, though maybe Diverge will try and take him on for the lead. Either way, a strong pace looks almost certain. If the ground is soft, Facile Vega will probably win but if there is good in the description, Marine Nationale should be well suited by a fast run race.

Tahmuras looks the most overpriced of the market leaders. He has made all in the past but he has shown the last twice he doesn’t have to lead. That tactical versatility could be crucial. Of those at bigger odds, Diverge could be anything but that tongue tie has instilled a doubt in the back of my mind.

The one I’ll take a chance on e/w at big odds is Doctor Bravo. He was impressive when winning at Down Royal, he was a shade unlucky when a mistake cost him last time and I think he is capable of reversing form with Dark Raven. It is a treacherous race so keeps stakes small, but at 22/1, Doctor Bravo is a very tentative e/w selection.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tip: Doctor Bravo e/w @ 22/1 (4 places)

2.10 – Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

A little bit more straightforward than the opener, thankfully. The bookies make it a match, with Irish raider El Fabiolo heading the betting, just, at around 13/8 for Mullins and Townend. The son of Spanish Moon has won both chase starts pretty easily this season. Colonel Mustard was 19L behind at Fairyhouse but I wouldn’t be getting carried away with that form. Lorna Fowler’s horse is a far inferior chaser compared to what he can do over hurdles.

There was a lot more substance to his second chase win, a 10L defeat of Banbridge at the DRF (Dysart Dynamo another 0.5L back in 4th). However, it must be said that Banbridge is a much better horse on genuine good ground and it was yielding at Leopardstown. Interestingly, the last time El Fabiolo tasted defeat at Aintree in a G1 Novice hurdle it was his main market rival today, Jonbon, that beat him by a neck.

Unbeaten

Like El Fabiolo, Jonbon is unbeaten over fences. In fact, the only horse that has ever managed to finish ahead of him is Constitution Hill. This lad took to the bigger obstacles like a duck to water at Warwick in November. Another slick round of jumping followed at Sandown in the G1 Henry VIII where he beat Boothill by 8L. In his final prep run last month he ran in a match race vs Calico and while he wasn’t visually as impressive, he knuckled down and won easy enough in the end.

That last run has clearly put doubts in some punters’ minds. Surely, he’d nearly be odds on for this race only for that Warwick effort. With El Fabiolo and Dysart Dynamo both likely to go on, they could set it up for Nicky Henderson’s son of Walk In The Park. For me, he should be the favourite and I think he is going to be tough to beat.

Trailblazer

Dysart Dynamo only knows one way and that is to go hard from the front. However, he often pays the price late on for those early exertions, just like last time at Leopardstown. Odds of 9/2 surely overestimate his chances given that he has fallen and been beaten 10.5L and 50+L on three of his last four starts. The presence of Effernock Fizz in the field further complicates things for him as she’ll be blasting off from the outset too.

Saint Roi really impressed me with how he won at Leopardstown on St Stephen’s Day. He beat Visionarian by 2L but the margin does not reflect how comfortable it was. He unfortunately unseated early enough in the race won by El Fabiolo last time out but the one thing this horse has that none of his three main market rivals have is winning course form.

Willie Mullins’ charge landed a handicap here in 2021, he finished 3rd (promoted from 4th) in the Champion Hurdle last season and if he puts a clear round of jumping in, I could see him putting it right up to the top two. The fact he can sit off the pace is a huge plus in a race that will surely be run to suit his hold up style.

Outsiders Up Against It

Hollow Games ran well over 20f at last year’s festival behind Banbridge in the Martin Pipe. His limitations have been exposed on his last two starts in G1 company. He has had a wind op since trailing home 22L behind Saint Roi last time and that will need to elicit a massive amount of improvement if he is to figure here.

Ha D’Or finished just 4L behind El Fabiolo in a Punchestown Novice Hurdle last season. His best chasing performance came when beating subsequent Leopardstown Chase winner, The Goffer, over 21f on his chasing debut at Fairyhouse. However, he was well beaten over 19f on heavy next time and though his last run in a Navan G3 (16f gd) was better, that form shouldn’t be good enough to win an Arkle.

If the ground were good, I’d give Straw Fan Jack an outside place chance. He has a win and a second from four previous Cheltenham runs but unfortunately, he wants much better ground than he’ll get today. The exact same sentiment applies to the admirable Effernock Fizz. She has won nine races during her career, with eight of them coming on good or quicker.

Big Guns

To be honest, this is a race where the Big Guns will likely dominate. Jonbon is my idea of the most likely winner. He has already beaten El Fabiolo and the Mullins’ horse lacks course experience. It could well be a JP 1-2 here with Saint Roi staying on late up the hill. I wouldn’t put anyone off doing a little reverse forecast on Jonbon and Saint Roi.

The fact that Ha D’Or has won over 21f might be an asset. If the likes of Dysart Dynamo, El Fabiolo and Effernock Fizz go off at a hundred miles an hour it could bring stamina into play and we know this son of Nidor possesses plenty of that attribute. Soft ground will suit him and in the hope that the pace collapses late on, I’ll take a small chance on him to finish off well for place money at odds of 50/1.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tip: Ha D’Or e/w @ 50/1

2.50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier)

At massive odds, I’m going to take a punt on Good Boy Bobby in this year’s Ultima. UK horses have dominated this race in recent years and the assessor has given this lad a real chance. It looks to me like the Twiston-Davies’ clan have been getting this fella handicapped ever since his poor run in the Aintree Grand National.

Since pulling up in that contest he has had three starts. In October on his return he finished well beat behind Our Power off 146 at Ascot (24f gd). His next run was a lot better at Haydock. This time he finished a solid 4th on soft ground over 25f, beat 12L off 146. His last outing in December back at Haydock was a non-event but the handicapper generously dropped him 4lbs to 140.

That means he is now 6lbs lower than he was when winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day, 2021. The soft ground is ideal for him and so is going left handed on a testing track. He has placed on both previous visits to this track over inadequate trips and his overall form figures on testing, left handed tracks read 113124. Good Boy Bobby is lurking on a dangerous mark and if he rediscovers his Rowland Meyrick form, a huge run could be on the cards at 33/1.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tip: Good Boy Bobby e/w @ 33/1 (6 places) NAP

3.30 – Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

Constitution Hill vs State Man in what looks a very weak renewal otherwise. I can’t see past the Henderson horse. He looks an absolute freak of nature and if he stands up, he should win. State Man is no mug and he beat the reigning Champion Hurdler easy last time but he might be just bumping into a very special horse.

No bookies are paying 3 places here so I am happy to be on I Like To Move it e/w ante-post. In our stats based preview he made the final three, though I am very worried about the ground for him now. If it was good, I’d be a lot more confident of him running into a place but on this surface? I’m not so sure. The more it dries out, the better his place prospects will be.

Vauban might outrun his odds now back at Cheltenham. He landed the Triumph on his last visit but State Man has comfortably had his measure on both starts this season. He may well close the gap over this C&D but State Man has won here too so it is hard to make a case for him reversing this season’s form. This is a race I am more than happy to leave alone at this stage, hopefully I Like To Move it can land a place for the stats.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tip: No Bet

4.10 – Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

The race of the meeting? Possibly. It really is a star studded cast. Maries Rock, who was a short enough price for the Stayers’, is the 5/2 favourite. Dual Champion Hurdle heroine, Honeysuckle, is next best in the betting at 7/2. Epatante, a former Champion Hurdle winner and two time runner up, is 11/2. Love Envoi, winner of the G2 mares’ novice last year and 2/2 this season, is 9/1. Echoes In Rain, the Irish Champion Novice from 2021, is 9/1.

Queens Brook, a G3 winner last time, is 20/1 but it is the horse she beat at Punchestown on her last outing that I am most interested in. I was at the races that day and it was apparent that Brandy Love was carrying a bit of extra timber. She was very fresh too, so I wasn’t surprised to see her get beat. What did surprise me was the overreaction to that reversal.

Lacked A Recent Run

From being near fav, she was pushed out to 10/1 in a place but that has now disappeared. The 11/2 currently available is still pretty generous. I thought she travelled like the best horse in the race at Punchestown but a slow jump at the last, likely caused by her lack of a recent run, told. Queens Brook took full advantage and Brandy Love ended up back in 3rd, 4.75L behind the winner.

I’d imagine that spin has left her spot on and if she is back at the level she showed at Punchestown in April when she swatted Love Envoi aside, she is going to be hard to beat. The one worry is the ground. Her best form is on yielding or quicker and both Maries Rock and Honeysuckle don’t mind it soft, so that could be the biggest issue for her. With that in mind, I’m happy enough to let her run without the weight of my money on her back. With just 3 places on offer in a race where the market leaders are likely to dominate, I’ll sit on the fence. No bet.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tip: No Bet

4.50 – Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Premier)

We are already on Gordons Aura for this race in our Cheltenham Handicap lucky 15. I was delighted to see him declared, but not so delighted to see the rain. The best run he has produced so far came on yielding at Fairyhouse when he won his maiden and one of my reasons for putting him up was the fact that he might improve further on better ground. That looks unlikely now but he does have the assistance of Sam Ewing in the saddle so fingers crossed he runs a good race.

We may as well back one that’ll handle soft ground as an alternative and off a mark of 126, Samuel Spade could run well. Trained by Ben Pauling, who runs two, he will be the mount of stable jockey Luca Morgan. An ordinary flat horse, this son of Myboycharlie has been transformed by the switch to hurdling.

Big Swing in Weights

He landed a Class 2 3yo hurdle at Kempton (16f sft) on his first go, beating three subsequent winners. On his next outing, in another Class 2 at Huntingdon, he found just Perseus Way too good. 3L separated them and he was conceding 8lbs to the Moore horse. The Pauling horse is in receipt of 6lbs here so that represents a monstrous 14lbs swing in the weights.

Pauling returned to Huntingdon for a lower class race on his last start and he won it by 16 lengths. He jumped a little bit to the left that day so hopefully, going left handed around Cheltenham will suit. He has form on soft and good to soft so the ground should be ok and on that Perseus Way form, the assessor may have let him in lightly here off 126. At odds of 20/1, Samuel Spade is the each way selection.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tip: Gordons Aura (already advised) e/w @ 33/1 (5 places); Samuel Spade e/w @ 20/1 (6 places)

5.30 – NH Challenge Cup (Grade 2)

The defection of Churchstonewarrior has left the door wide open for Gaillard Du Mesnil in this Grade 2. Willie Mullins’ 7yo has long been considered an ideal candidate for this stamina test and he is rated 8lbs higher than his nearest rival. He ran a cracker when 3rd in last year’s Irish National and he landed a soft ground Grade 1 at Leopardstown over 24f in December.

His 3rd last time came over an inadequate trip of 21f and he ran really well over 24f when 3rd behind L’Homme Presse at last year’s festival. Stepping back up in trip, he is the one they have to beat.

Chemical Energy hacked up on good ground here back in October over 24f. The huge worry for him is the soft conditions. His form figures on good read 112111 whereas on softer ground they read 441085. He’ll have the considerable assistance of Jamie Codd in the saddle but even so, on soft ground he might have his work cut out.

Mahler On A Mission

The one to chase the jolly home could be Mahler Mission. John McConnell’s 7yo proved no match for Chemical Energy on good ground here in October. However, on softer ground, he can turn that form around. His career best win came on soft/heavy at Navan in January when he beat Tenzing by 10L. He pitches up here too but it is hard to see him reversing that piece of form.

Minella Crooner and Mister Coffey are solid, consistent horses and they both have place claims. The bookies haven’t missed them though and they look to be priced up about right at 7s and 10s. The one that could be a touch overpriced here is Fakiera.

Trip To Suit

He admittedly flopped on his sole previous Cheltenham run but that was over hurdles in a G1. He is 0/9 over fences but he went close on his sole previous try at 29f at Fairyhouse in December and the extra furlong here shouldn’t do his prospects any harm. Fakiera was only 2.5l behind Mahler Mission at Punchestown over 23f in December and I can see no reason why he can’t be as close, or even closer, to that rival over this longer distance.

Jamie Codd rode him next time, again at Punchestown, over 22f and it was another decent effort under a mammoth weight of 12st 5lbs. The hustle and bustle of the Thyestes didn’t suit last time and in this smaller field, he should be more comfortable.

He has very little to find with Mahler Mission on their Punchestown meeting on New Year’s Eve and given the distance that separated them, I’d much prefer to be on Fakiera e/w at 33s rather than the McConnell horse at 7s. Gaillard Du Mesnil is by far the most likely winner but hopefully, Derek Lavery can sneak Fakiera into the places for e/w players.