2023 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tips – DS
2023 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Preview
What a start to the week. A Day 1 shitshow. Doctor Bravo’s run was a sign of things to come. Things didn’t improve with Ha D’Or and then Daryl Jacob kept Good Boy Bobby 10 wide the whole way round. Samuel Spade finished last and the only bright spot on a shocker of a day was that Gordons Aura ran well, even if he missed a place by a length. Fakiera pulling up was the final insult and that day can go straight in the bin. Confidence has taken a battering but we go again. 2023 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday tips are below.
1.30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
A hard race to get excited about from an e/w betting perspective. On ratings, it looks between the top five in the betting. Hermes Allen is rated 150 but he is the second favourite at 10/3 behind the 148 rated Irish raider, Impaire Et Passe. These two are both unbeaten under rules and over hurdles. Hermes Allen is 3/3 over timber and won a G1 last time out, while the Mullins horse won a bumper and is 2/2 over the jumps, including a G2 at Punchestown on his last start.
Visually, both horses have been extremely impressive. They’ve won on soft too but Hermes Allen has the advantage of course form in the book. So does the highest rated horse in the field, Gaelic Warrior (157). He has charted a very different course to this race. On his first run for Mullins he just failed in the County last March, going down by a head off 129. This season he won his maiden at Tramore, followed up in a minor heat at Clonmel and then won an £80k handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF).
Stamina Concerns
That experience should stand to him once he handles the step up in distance. Will he stay? I wouldn’t put money on it. His dam is related to a few 10f to 11f winners on the flat but the best jumpers that his sire Maxios has produced have mostly been best at 16/17f. It is worth giving 21f a try but he may well struggle to get up the hill.
Good Land has won his last two after an early mishap on his hurdling debut. The son of Blue Bresil landed a Leopardstown maiden over 20f and followed up at the DRF in a G1 over 22f. That wasn’t the strongest Grade 1 though and this is going to require another chunk of improvement. It might be forthcoming and after Marine Nationale’s win in the Supreme, stable confidence will be high.
The third of the four Mullins entries is Champ Kiely. He is another very talented horse and he landed a G1 over 20f on soft at Naas last time out. Irish Point chased him home and he previously ran Marine Nationale close in the Royal Bond, so the form is not too shabby. He made all at Naas but will he have it his own way out in front here?
Burn Up
All the fancied horses here like to be up on the pace so this could turn into a burn up. So much will depend on what tactics Willie Mullins decides to use with this three runners. Champ Kiely can pull hard if he doesn’t get his own way and he’ll likely be let bowl along. Hermes Allen has made all in this three starts to date and Paul Nicholls won’t want to change a winning recipe. Gaelic Warrior is another one that likes to lead, just like he did in the County here last season.
The fourth Mullins horse, Ho My Lord, might be worth a little interest e/w. We backed Banjaxed in that Navan maiden that he won and he was far from disgraced in a Kelso G2 next time. He beat Banjaxed quite comfortably (4.5L) and while he jumped the first two obstacles big, understandably given his fall on his Irish debut at Leopardstown, his jumping got a lot more economical as the race went on.
Ears Pricked
Mark Walsh asked him for a good jump at the last and his partner obliged by pinging it and quickening clear up the hill. Ho My Lord had his ears pricked as he crossed the line which suggests he was really enjoying himself, something I like to see. He won on very soft in France so rain shouldn’t be an issue and he is clearly a horse with lots of potential. If Walsh sits back and lets the front runners take each other on, Ho My Lord might be able to stay on late and hopefully pick up place money at 28/1.
2023 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tip: Ho My Lord e/w @ 28/1
2.10 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Gerri Colombe is the shortish priced favourite here. If you read our Lump or Lay preview, you’ll know that I think this is a horse that could be worth taking on. Yes, he is unbeaten and he will enjoy the ground, but this horse has never jumped a hurdle or fence going left handed in public before. Now, maybe he’ll be absolutely fine but some horses can be way more effective going to the left than they are to the right and vice versa.
The fact that Elliott hasn’t tried him going left handed before might be just a coincidence. However, when you see how badly he hung to the right when winning last time at Sandown, maybe it is by design that he has dodged left handed tracks so far. If he swerves like that coming up the hill at Cheltenham…
Lack of Chasing Experience
Next best in the betting is last season’s Ballymore winner, Sir Gerhard. He has only run twice since that victory, a poor effort at Punchestown in April and then a comeback win at Gowran in late January. It was touch and go as to whether he’d make this festival and it is far from ideal having just one chase run under your belt coming into a race like this. Will that lack of experience tell?
The Real Whacker looks the most solid proposition of the market leaders. He comes into the race on the back of successive Cheltenham wins. Pat Neville’s charge landed a Novice over 24.5f in November and he followed up in a C&D G2, beating Monmiral by over 3L. If he were trained by a bigger name, would he be shorter? I think so and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him at odds of around 6/1.
Home Challenge
Galia Des Liteaux has looked good on two of her three chase starts. On the other one, she made a bad mistake and pulled up. She has every chance at the figures with her allowance but the Irish Novices look to be a step ahead on Tuesday’s evidence.
Thyme Hill is the other leading hope for the home team. He has plenty of course form in the book over hurdles and his jumping was a lot better last time out at Kempton. Soft ground is fine and he looks the biggest threat of the UK trained horses.
Overpriced
I thought Adamantly Chosen was overpriced at 40s last time out and he nicked place money for us. He is chalked up at 20/1 for this race and again, that looks a bit too big. He has been very consistent over fences and he has a lot more chasing experience than a few of his shorter priced rivals. In five runs he has finished out of the first two just once and he has won twice.
I was at Punchestown to see him win in October and he was very impressive, beating Visionarian by 3.75L. After a bit of a break he had his first try in Grade 1 company at Fairyhouse and he finished 5th, well beaten behind Mighty Potter. However, he left that run behind at Limerick on St Stephen’s Day. In that G1 he chased home today’s favourite Gerri Colombe, beat just over 4L on bottomless ground.
The ground was better next time at the DRF and Adamantly Chosen again ran a blinder. This time he closed the gap to Mighty Potter to 8L and he finished ahead of Gaillard Du Mesnil, I Am Maximus and Kilcruit. Going left handed and on better ground than at Limerick, he should be able to close the 4L gap to Gerri Colombe and I don’t think he deserves to be 20/1. He was hampered early on his sole previous run at this track so it is too soon to say he doesn’t act here and at the prices, he is worth chancing e/w.
2023 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tip: Adamantly Chosen e/w @ 20/1 nap
2.50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Premier)
A race that has not been kind to me in the past but this year it is going to be different. I hope. Generally speaking, apart from Paul Hennessey in 2021, the bigger yards have farmed this race. Of the 26 runners Gordon Elliott, who won this last year, has five of them. Sa Fureur looks the first string on jockey bookings but he might lack the experience for a race of this nature at this stage of his career.
Riaan, on the other hand, has plenty of experience over timber. He has already won a handicap, at Cork in November off 116, and he landed a 20f novice at Thurles last time out. In that Cork race he beat San Salvador by just under 3L in receipt of 3lbs and with Richie Deegan claiming 3lbs off his mount, they race off level weights today. Sandwiched between those two runs Riaan ran a poor race at Punchestown but that wasn’t his true form. Soft ground is fine and if it dries out, that won’t bother him either. At 25s, he is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.
Up In Trip
The other horse to be interested in here is Icare Allen. Trained by Willie Mullins, this son of Cokoriko has been crying out for this step up in trip. He is most certainly bred for further than the distances he has been running over. His sire, Cokoriko, has produced stout stayers like Coko Beach and his dam is out of a half sister to a 4m 4f winner.
In last year’s Triumph he travelled as well as anything but just got outpaced between the last two flights. He kept on very nicely up the hill though to finish fourth. On his first run this season he ran a huge race in a 16f Grade A handicap at Fairyhouse off 140. He cruised into contention but again, the first two were just too quick for him in the final furlong.
The rain that has fallen will suit this lad. Conditions were too quick for him at Newbury last month and he will be a lot more at home on today’s ground. This horse is still just a 5yo so he has time on his side and this looks the perfect time to try him over further. Hopefully Mark Walsh can thread a clear passage in the closing stages and if he does, Icare Allen is capable of hitting the frame at odds of 28/1.
2023 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tip: Riaan e/w @ 25/1; Icare Allen e/w @ 28/1 nb (both 7 Places)
3.30 – Champion Chase (Grade 1)
Unfortunately just seven run here but it remains an intriguing race. Editeur Du Gite has beaten Edwardstone and Energumene the last twice but the bookies don’t think he’ll back it up. Gary Moore’s horse is an uncomplicated, slick jumping front runner and he could prove hard to peg back again.
Energumene is the defending Champion. After a 1L defeat to Shishkin before last year’s meeting he looked irresistible. He landed this race by 8L, the Irish version by 8.5L and then he reappeared for this season with a 15L G2 win at Cork. However, last time out the wheels came off in the Clarence House. He didn’t travel as well as he normally does and he made a shuddering mistake at the last. To be honest, I think that even if he pinged that fence Edwardstone and Editeur still would have beaten him.
Edwardstone won the Arkle here last season but he has found life tougher since that victory. He has won just one of his four starts since and he had every chance to beat Editeur Du Gite last time but the winner outbattled him. I’d definitely prefer him over Energumene but the value surely lies with the Moore horse at 11/2.
No Back Number
Nube Negra is another talented horse and he likes it at Cheltenham. On his last visit he landed a G2 by 8L and he probably should have won this race in 2021. We didn’t see him at the Festival last year and you’d worry that the 9yo’s chance of winning this race has passed. However, if Skelton has him in the same sort of shape that he was in when runner up a couple of years ago, he could surprise a few with a big run.
Greaneteen was 4th in that 2021 race, a rare good effort going left handed. All but two of his career wins have come going the other way round and he’s finished well behind Edwardstone and Funambule Sivola the last twice. In our stats preview the Venetia Williams horse made the final three and we are already on him e/w ante-post at 40/1 for three places. That’ll do for me, hopefully he sneaks a place and we get a cracking race.
2023 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tip: No Bet
4.10 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (Class 2)
A race that is a great spectacle and not one I’d usually bet on. I’ll be making an exception this year though. Delta Work is 11/8 to repeat last year’s heroics and he should be hard to beat. Galvin and Franco De Port are two classy sorts who could go well but they’ve never raced around this course before. The one I’ll be having a small e/w interest in is Diesel D’Allier.
Richard Bandey’s son of Kap Rock is a course specialist. He has won twice over the banks and he has managed to finish 4th in this race in 2020 and 2022. Now, it must be said he was well beaten in both races but in his defence, the ground was possibly a bit too testing last year. Soft/good to soft is what he is best on and he should get half decent conditions today.
Bandey has clearly trained him for this race. He has had just one run, when well beat over C&D in late January, but that was most likely badly needed. Is he good enough to win? Probably not, but two of the three market leaders lack cross country experience and if they don’t take to it, Diesel D’Allier is more than capable of nicking the same finishing spot as in his two previous attempts. At odds of 40/1, back him e/w for 4 places.
2023 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tip: Diesel D’Allier e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)
4.50 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Premier)
We have already backed Dancing On My Own ante-post for this race. On jockey bookings he looks the De Bromhead third string but JJ Slevin has ridden him the last twice so maybe it was always the plan to have him on board. Going left handed is key for this 9yo, the ground should be fine and Henry De Bromhead got off the mark with Honeysuckle on Tuesday. I’m happy to stick with him, hopefully he makes a bold bid from the front like he did at Aintree last year. I’m not a fan of bumpers so this will be our last bet of the day.
2023 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tip: Dancing On My Own e/w @ 40/1 (6 places)
Champion Chase Stats That Matter
Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter
