2023 Chepstow Welsh National Meeting Tips – DS
2023 Chepstow Welsh National Meeting Tips
We managed to nick two lovely winners at 16/1 on Boxing Day. In Ireland, Ataboycharlie proved to be as well in as I thought and he hacked up despite travelling wide. Hewick looked beaten after 2 miles but the insane pace set by the front runners set it up for him and he swooped late to land the pot for the Shark. Let’s hope for more winners on Wednesday, 2023 Chepstow Welsh National meeting tips are below. You can check out his Irish preview here.
1.05 Chepstow – Coral Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Four runners and a race that makes absolutely zero appeal. If First Flow is at his best he should win but he’s just 9/4. No bet.
2023 Chepstow Welsh National Meeting Tip: No Bet
1.20 Kempton – Juvenile Hurdle (Class 2)
Sir Gino is a very short price for his UK/stable debut in this Juvenile Hurdle. A winner of a Listed heat at Auteuil back in April (15f hvy), he has had a wind op since joining Nicky Henderson. That French form is always hard to weigh up and the ground will be a lot quicker this afternoon. That being said, his sire, It’s Gino, has a good record with good ground runners so there’s a decent chance he’ll handle it.
The remainder of the field looks pretty closely matched for the most part. One horse that could potentially improve for this better ground is Royal Way. Another French import, this lad has 12L or so to find with Ithaca’s Arrow on their meeting at Sandown three weeks ago. The ground was bottomless, he pulled hard early and he lost a shoe so it is fair to say things didn’t go to plan.
His sire Galiway has a good record with his runners on better ground and Gary Moore’s charge will hopefully have learned plenty from that Sandown run. Niall Houlihan owes us one after the ride he gave Kotmask on Boxing Day, hopefully he can make amends on Royal Way at odds of 16/1.
Kempton Tip: Royal Way e/w @ 16/1
1.40 Chepstow – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
The big question at Chepstow is what time the forecast rain will arrive. Currently, the heaviest stuff is due to start at around midday but that could still change. When the weather is on a knife edge like this it is never ideal. The ground is good to soft at the moment but there is every chance it could be at least soft by the time of this race.
With that in mind, I’m going to take a chance on Crossing The Bar. Trained by Neil Mulholland, this 6yo son of Poet’s Voice handles all sorts of ground. Two of his three wins have come on soft, he has won on good and good to soft and he has placed form on heavy.
Best Race
This season he has yet to hit top form but he ran his best race of the campaign last time at Ffos Las (24f hvy). Ok, he was beaten 20l into fourth but it was a definite improvement on his previous two runs. The assessor has now dropped him to 116, just 2lbs higher than he was when last winning at Plumpton (25f sft).
Richie McClernon was on board that day and he gets the leg up again. It’s a relatively big pot for a horse with Crossing The Bar’s profile so hopefully he is there to do his best. If he is, he could sneak into the money at odds of 25/1.
2023 Chepstow Welsh National Meeting Tip: Crossing The Bar e/w @ 25/1 NB
1.55 – Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Just four runners and another race that makes very little appeal. It looks between the top two in the betting but you couldn’t fully discount the two outsiders. However, with no e/w betting available it is a no bet race.
Kempton Tip: No bet
2.10 Chepstow – Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)
Another pitifully small field with just five going to post. We have a very short priced favourite here with the two time winner Burdett Road. Trained by James Owen, he hacked up in a G2 at Cheltenham last time on soft ground.
His hurdling debut saw him win by 12L at Huntingdon (16f gd/sft) so he looks pretty versatile regarding ground. However, his best flat form is on good to firm and if it turned heavy, that would be a worry.
The second fav Harsh won’t mind if the heavens open. He hosed up on sft/hvy at Cork last time and I’d imagine they came here in the hope of getting similar conditions. Joseph O’Brien will be praying that the rain arrives in time for his son of Dark Angel.
Rain Needed
I’m going to bank on that rain softening up the ground and if it turns heavy, Balboa looks overpriced. Beaten 3L by An Breadan Feasa at Cheltenham (17f sft) last time, that would give him no chance against Burdett Road. However, he did get badly hampered after the last that day so he arguably could have finished closer to that rival.
On his previous start, Balboa gained his first hurdle win over today’s C&D on heavy ground. The horse he beat by 4L, Castelfort, franked the form on his next run at Sandown. Those two pulled well clear of the rest and it looked like the son of Mondialiste relished the heavy conditions. If the ground turns that way again, Balboa will hopefully run a huge race at odds of 14/1.
2023 Chepstow Welsh National Meeting Tip: Balboa e/w @ 14/1
2.30 Kempton – Desert Orchid Handicap Chase (Grade 2)
Six runners in this G2 handicap chase and it looks a tricky little puzzle. Boothill and Elixir De Nutz bring top notch handicap form into the race. However, Editeur Du Gite and Nube Negra bring Grade 1 winning form so it’s not easy to decipher. Nube Negra will be getting his ground for the first time in over a year so if I were backing one, it would probably be him.
The strangest entry here is Grange Walk. A winner at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting in 2021 and a good fourth there in 2022, I’m amazed to see him pitching up here rather than in Dublin. A travel mate for The Little Yank perhaps? We backed Malystic last time when he was bitterly disappointing and not even the booking of Nico is enough to tempt me into backing him again. Another no bet race.
Kempton Tip: No Bet
2.50 Chepstow – Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier)
We have already backed Charlie Uberalles at 50s for the Welsh National, you can read why here. The big worry would be if the rain came but he is at least bred to handle it softer so we live in hope. In case it does turn heavy and he doesn’t like it, I’m going to have another bet on a horse that will handle those conditions and Wayfinder fits the bill.
Trained in Wales by Rebecca Curtis, the excellent Lily Pinchin takes the ride. This 9yo son of Shantou was last sighted here over 23.5f when he found just Nassalam too good by 5.5L on heavy ground. He is now 5lbs better off with the Moore horse, a 6/1 shot here. Wayfinder can be backed at 25s.
Welsh National Dream
This horse loves it at Chepstow. He has won four times here, three on good at 23f and once on soft at 26f. Given where he is trained, I’d imagine the dream has always been to win this race and while he pulled up in it last year, he probably wasn’t 100% as he had burst a blood vessel on his previous start.
This year, he comes into the race in better shape. He ran a cracker on his seasonal return at Cheltenham behind Whacker Clan before falling early doors back there three weeks later. He showed no ill effects from that tumble last time out and the way he stayed on suggests that this trip will suit even better.
A 5lbs swing may not be enough for Wayfinder to turn the tables on Nassalam but if he can produce a similar sort of effort, a place could be within reach at odds of 25/1.
2023 Chepstow Welsh National Meeting Tip: Wayfinder e/w @ 25/1 (6 places); Charlie Uberalles already advised e/w @ 50/1 (4 places)
3.09 Kempton – Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (Class 2)
John Ryan has his second runner on today’s card with The Little Yank. This horse races off 127 today as he bids to win his first ever handicap. He has had plenty of near misses at a wide range of trips on all sorts of ground but there is a decent chance that Kempton might suit him.
All four of his wins over jumps have come going right handed. They all came on yielding or quicker ground too so conditions should be ideal for him at Kempton.
While he hasn’t won a handicap yet, he has run big in some very valuable ones. He was beat 3L into 3rd in a 50k handicap hurdle at Leopardstown in February 2022 and he was fourth in a Cork National off today’s mark in November.
The son of Westerner hasn’t had many chances at this sort of trip on nice ground. When he has run in handicap chases at 3 miles or further it has usually been too soft for him so I’d imagine that’s why he has come here. The track should suit, the ground will suit and he looks fairly treated. So, at odds of 20/1, The Little Yank is the e/w selection.
