2023 Curragh Lincolnshire Meeting Preview & Tips – DS
2023 Curragh Lincolnshire Meeting Preview
The flat is back. Finally. However, the ground tomorrow is going to be more like winter ground and it is going to be a day for mudlarks. We’ve also previewed Kelso, Newbury and Meydan, see that here. Below, you can check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Curragh Lincolnshire Meeting preview and tips.
1.40 – EBF 5f Maiden (2yo)
As long time readers will know, Adrian Murray is a trainer I have massive respect for. He runs three in the opening 2yo race of the season, something I thought I’d never see happening when I started following his horses a decade or so ago. Murray used to train NH horses only but he has shown in the last two or three seasons that he can train on the flat too.
He has a good connection with Amo Racing and Kevin Stott has made the trip across the Irish Sea to ride his exceptionally well bred son of Wootton Bassett, Bucanero Fuerte. Murray had an Amo horse beat a head in this race last season and he’ll be keen to go one better.
This horse is a full brother to heavy ground Abbaye winner Wooded so there’s a good chance he’ll handle the ground. However, his other full brother Beat le Bon wants ground like the road, so it is by no means certain that he’ll act on this type of surface.
Ground Concerns
Looking at the pedigrees is the only clue we have as to whether these juveniles will go on heavy. Prince XJ’s dam won over a mile on heavy but his sire Mehmas has a 17% winners to runners strike rate on heavy compared to 33% on good or quicker.
Kieran Cotter’s 2yos are always entitled to maximum respect and he runs a son of first season sire Invincible Army here. Sturlasson is out of a Dark Angel dam that earned her biggest win on soft so there is hope he’ll handle the ground. However, Invincible Spirit has sired two horses out of Dark Angel dams and they liked proper good ground so it is probably 50/50 that he handles it.
Charles Atlas and One Cool Cookie are by Cotai Glory, a sire that is 0/7 with his heavy ground runners. The Bolger pair are by Raven’s Pass and Profitable and of those two, Spanish Cara looks the more likely to handle conditions on breeding.
Interesting Outsider
The most interesting outsider is Adrian Murray’s ‘third string’, Guns And Flowers. She’s a February filly, which is a positive, and she is by a sire renowned for producing bog monsters. Her full brother, Hot Voice, won a 7f nursery on heavy at Gowran. Her dam is a full sister to a 6f heavy ground nursery winner at Fairyhouse.
Gary Halpin takes the ride and Dylan Browne McMonagle is on Murray’s other runner, Capall Donn. McMonagle is 0/2 with no places riding for Murray, whereas Halpin is 1/29 with 9 top 4s so you would think he had the pick. This is definitely a race for small stakes but in the hope that Vocalised has produced another mud lover, Guns And Flowers is a speculative e/w selection at 40/1.
2023 Curragh Lincolnshire Meeting Tip: Guns and Flowers e/w @ 40/1
2.15 – DMG Media Handicap (0-100)
If he had a run under his belt I’d be all over Downforce here. He loves these attritional conditions but at 11yo, surely he’ll need a couple of runs to blow away the cobwebs. The one I am going to take a punt on is a horse that finished 4.5L behind Downforce over 6f here on bottomless ground back in October. Aljady was rated 90 in that race and with Sean Bowen’s 7lbs claim, he is effectively 15lbs lower here.
Denis Hogan’s charge didn’t build on that run subsequently, but those runs came at Dundalk. Looking at who rode him in his last two runs there, it is a possibility that Hogan was getting him handicapped ahead of a return to the grass.
This horse acts on soft ground and on his last start on that type of ground for his former trainer Robert Cowell, he finished 2nd behind Dakota Gold in a Listed contest. His form figures on soft/heavy read 7112 and one of those wins came in a handicap off 97. He goes well fresh, as he demonstrated here last year and at odds of 40/1, a small e/w interest on Aljady is advised.
2023 Curragh Lincolnshire Meeting Tip: Aljady e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)
3.25 – Irish Lincolnshire Handicap (Premier)
The main event. I’ve already put up Miss Mirabell for this race and of course, there hasn’t been a washer for her. However, that doesn’t really concern me. I think she has the credentials to run big and hopefully she does. In case she doesn’t run to form, I’m also going to take a small chance on Finans Bay who is drawn on the opposite side.
One of ten for Ado McGuinness, this son of Kodiac starts from stall 1. Declan McDonogh rides and unlike a lot of today’s rivals, he comes here fit from a run at Dundalk. This horse has rarely had soft/heavy ground in the past two seasons. Since winning his maiden on heavy at Leopardstown back in 2020, he has only raced on ground with soft in the description once.
That came in a Listed Listowel race over 9f and he ran a lovely race in 5th, beat just 4L. He has solid course form on yielding, including a maiden 2nd over today’s trip and a G3 3rd behind Earlswood. He found just Sonnyboyliston too good in a Premier Handicap on good ground here over 10f back in 2020, so he does like this track. Declan McDonogh is 47/367 with 124 top 4s for McGuinness, hopefully he can steer Finans Bay into the frame at odds of 20/1.
2023 Curragh Lincolnshire Meeting Tip: Miss Mirabella already advised e/w @ 25/1 nap; Finans Bay e/w @ 20/1 (6 places)
3.57 – Park Express Stakes (Group 3)
At the prices, it might be worth backing Flame Of Eire e/w in this G3. Andy Slattery’s horses are in good form and connections will be very keen to pick up some black type with this progressive daughter of Mehmas. She was rated as low as 59 less than a year ago but after four wins on the spin, she rocketed up the ratings. After a win off 78 at Listowel (9f sft) she was hiked to 88 and the assessor added another 4lbs after a superb run in Listed company at Naas in October (8f sft).
On that run she has only a length to find with Sunset Shiraz, a 10/1 poke here. After she won at Listowel her trainer nominated the Lincoln as her main target, but priorities must have changed during the winter and she pitches up here instead. Quite a few of the market leaders have it to prove on ground as testing as this and while Flame Of Eire is unraced on heavy, her soft ground form figures read 114. At odds of 16/1, she is the e/w selection.
2023 Curragh Lincolnshire Meeting Tip: Flame Of Eire e/w @ 16/1 NB
5.37 – McDonnells Bar Newbridge Handicap (50-70)
I could have studied the 5.07 for another two hours and I’d still be no closer to finding a bet. This 6f sprint is almost as puzzling but at 50s, Even Flow could go well now back on bad ground. Formerly trained by Willie McCreery, this 5yo daughter of Fast Company has shown very little in four runs for her new yard. However, one of those runs was on good ground and the other three were on the all weather and this mare is worth giving a chance to on her first run on heavy for Keith Watson.
Her form figures for McCreery on yielding or softer read 22496332 and the 9th came in a C&D soft ground maiden when she was only beat by 4.75L. All those runs came in maiden company and while she has run in handicaps before, this will be her first go in one on easy ground. Shane Kelly had a sighter on this mare at Dundalk last month, a run that should have blown away any cobwebs.
The handicapper has now dropped Even Flow to just 58 and on her best maiden form, that mark is very attractive. Maybe she has lost her form for good but she finished a fine 3rd at Tipperary on her last heavy ground start so at 50/1, it is worth taking a chance that these conditions spark a revival.
