2023 Doncaster Lincoln Meeting Preview – DS
2023 Doncaster Lincoln Meeting Preview
To say that last weekend was a disaster would be an understatement. I’ve had bad days before but I don’t think I’ve ever managed to put up so many absolute donkeys on the same day. It felt like whatever could go wrong, did go wrong, and our only place was with Numitor. I actually thought Miss Mirabell ran better than her finishing position suggests, but she just had too much to do. Hopefully things improve, check out our 2023 Doncaster Lincoln meeting preview below.
1.50 Doncaster – Brocklesby Stakes (Class 2)
The first 2yo race of the season and a refreshingly big field of 18 runners. Last year we backed Primrose Ridge and she found just Persian Force too good. Amo Racing have the favourite again this year, the 6/4 shot Valadero. Trained by Dominic Ffrench Davis, a trainer with two 2yo winners in the last five years, this son of Starspangledbanner costa quarter of a million as a yearling.
His dam’s sole win came on good ground and while she is related to one soft/heavy ground winner, her other three siblings liked better ground. I’d probably give him a 60/40 chance of handling today’s conditions.
Bred For The Muck
One horse that is bred to absolutely relish today’s type of ground is Tees Douge. Trained by Adrian Nicholls, this son of Dream Ahead is already gelded. A very early January foal, maybe he was a bit temperamental and that was why they gave him the cruellest cut of all. His sire produced his best ever performance when the ground was soft and plenty of his progeny have inherited a liking for testing conditions.
He is related to a soft ground Doncaster winner and his dam ran respectably on her sole start on easy ground. Adrian Nicholls had one run a huge race in this last year and hopefully, he has this fella primed for his debut. The main concern is his draw in stall 18 so just in case there is a big bias tomorrow, I’m also going to back one that is drawn lower.
Previous
Another trainer who has had one run well in this race at massive odds before is Tony Coyle. Back in 2018 he sent out Broken Spear at odds of 33/1 and he only went down by 0.75L behind Izzer. His next runner in the race finished 6th of 12 last year at 100/1 and this year, he relies on Havana Prince. By Havana Grey, Harrison Shaw rides this colt and he has a low draw in stall 6.
His sire, Havana Grey, had an excellent first season at stud and he’s already sired four soft ground winners. His Grand Dam is a half to a host of classy first time out 2yo winners, including on heavy ground, and Coyle’s charge is an early January foal too so he should be better developed physically than some of his younger rivals. 5 of Coyle’s 17 previous 2yo runners at Doncaster have finished in the first four, hopefully Havana Prince can make it 6 from 18 on Saturday.
2023 Doncaster Lincoln meeting Tip: Havana Prince e/w @ 66/1; Tees Douge e/w @ 33/1 (Both 4 Places)
2.05 Kempton – Magnolia Stakes (Listed)
With a few firms paying 3 places on this 7 runner affair, I’ll take a chance on Savvy Victory. We backed this horse twice last season. Rob Havlin had a shocker on the first occasion, finishing 1.5L 3rd of 6 behind Ottoman Fleet in a race he should have probably won. We went in again at Royal Ascot but the good to firm going was no good for him. Subsequently, he won a handicap at Goodwood off 95, was 5th beat 4L in the Cambridgeshire off 99 and he then finished 3rd in a Listed heat at Newmarket on his last start of 2022.
Richard Kingscote rides the 4yo son of New Bay on his seasonal comeback. A rating of 101 leaves him with plenty to find with the three highest rated here but in my opinion, this horse is more than capable of running above his mark if fully fit for his return. He won first time out last season so we know he can run well when fresh and his sire has had 8 winners and 22 places from just 48 previous Kempton runners. At 20/1 and with 3 places on offer, a small e/w bet on Savvy Victory is advised.
2023 Doncaster Lincoln meeting Tip: Savvy Victory e/w @ 20/1 (3 places)
2.25 Doncaster – Spring Mile Handicap (Class 2)
The consolation race for the big one and a maximum field of 22. Hopefully these big fields are a sign of things to come this year. It’ll be well worth watching this contest to see which is the best side to be drawn on. Broken Spear, a Doncaster soft ground specialist, is the mount of crack claimer Billy Loughnane. I am flabbergasted that he didn’t get a ride in the main event because he is worth every milligram of his 5lb claim.
His mount was second in the Brocklesby for Coyle in 2018, he was a superb 5th off 86 in last year’s Lincoln and then he went close twice here over 7f on heavy off 79 and then 80. Billy Loughnane rode on the latter occasion and Coyle gave his charge a pipe opener at Newcastle in mid-March. The ground has come right for the now 7yo son of Pastoral Pursuits but the fact remains that he has yet to win beyond 7f and he is 0/6 over a mile. If he is going to get 8f it’ll be here, but the bookies are taking no chances at odds of around 17/2.
Love the Ground
Another one that will enjoy the testing conditions is the 6yo son of Mayson, Maysong. Trained by Alice Haynes, this horse really enjoys getting his toe in. Yes, his only turf win came on good ground but his form on slower ground is arguably stronger. Haynes kept this fella busy last year before he got a couple of months off after a 3rd at Kempton in January. He is a tough, consistent horse that often gives his running and he probably deserves to have won more than the two races he has landed in his 49 race career.
On his return from that short break he ran another solid race at Chelmsford (7f st). Beat just 1.25L off 75 under an inexperienced claimer, it was a perfect prep run for a return to the grass. He ran twice on heavy last season, finishing a fine 2nd at Epsom (8.5f) off 77 (beat 2.75L) and then beat just 2.25L at Leicester (8f hvy) off 76 for today’s jockey.
Maysong gets in off 74 today so he is definitely handicapped to be competitive. He has finished 2nd in 3 of his 4 starts on straight tracks at 7f+ and he’s been beaten less than 2.75L on nine of his last ten starts. This horse has place claims at the very least and if he gets the rub of the green, he might even win. At odds of 25/1, Maysong is the e/w selection.
2023 Doncaster Lincoln meeting Tip: Maysong e/w @ 25/1 (6 Places)
2.40 Kempton – Unibet Handicap (Class 3)
Another interesting little race. On a personal level, I’ll be hoping for a big run for Stately Home. Having been involved in buying him at the sales (for someone else) back in August 2020, I’ve been following his progress ever since. The grey son of Clodovil is a lovely looking horse who had his quirks when he was younger but he has a serious amount of ability.
He has finished in the first three in 13 of his 20 starts and with a bit more luck he would have won more than the three races he has landed to date. He is now racing off a career high mark of 80 after landing a class 5 handicap off 77 last time and he is up into class 3 company now. His form figures at Kempton read 7331 and from a decent draw in stall 4 he should go close again.
At A Price
He is too short for the blog today at odds of 8/1 though and at triple that price, maybe Cliffs Of Capri can go well. Jamie Osborne’s son of Canford Cliffs hasn’t stood much racing in the last couple of seasons. However, there was plenty of promise to be found in two of his last three runs. On his comeback from 8 months off he ran over this C&D and though he finished 9th, he was only 2.75L behind the winner off a mark of 90. Dougie Costello gave him loads to do and he stayed on strongly in the last furlong.
The run maybe came too soon two weeks later at Southwell when he was well beat off 88. However, it was a lot more like it off 85 at Newcastle over 7f last time. Again, he was only beat 2.75L despite getting badly outpaced between the 2f and 1f poles. The step back up to a mile is in his favour here and he was a course winner over 7f back in the day. If he can repeat the form he showed on his last C&D run in January, he should be going close here off a 7lb lower mark.
2023 Doncaster Lincoln meeting Tip: Cliffs Of Capri e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)
3.00 Doncaster – Cammidge Trophy Stakes (Listed)
She isn’t a massive price but at around 12/1, Vadream is the e/w selection here. Trained by Charlie Fellowes, this 5yo daughter of Brazen Beau has rock solid form on soft in the book. Her career best by some distance came over 6f on soft at Ascot in October 2021 when she won the G3 Bengough Stakes. She was only beat 3.75L in the Champions Sprint Stakes on easy ground in October and on her final start of 2022, she finished 3rd in a Chantilly G3 on soft.
Her last two runs have come over 7f on the all weather at Wolverhampton and Lingfield. That trip probably stretches her stamina and she’ll be much better suited by today’s test. Her rating has fallen from 106 to 100 on the back of her three all weather runs this year but she is a 105+ performer at the very least on soft ground. The six horses ahead of her in the market lack a recent run, hopefully Vadream can make her fitness advantage count at 12/1.
2023 Doncaster Lincoln meeting Tip: Vadream e/w @ 12/1 (4 places) NAP
3.35 Doncaster – Lincoln Handicap (Class 2)
In all of this season’s Heritage Handicaps we’ll be backing two horses. I’ve entered the Dandinap Tipping Competition so the plan is to post one tip the day before the race on the blog, then I’ll post the second selection after the deadline for entering tips, which is midday on the day of the race. The second tip will be posted on the TXMarkets Twitter Feed and reasoning will be added here on the blog.
So, for this year’s Lincoln, I have my eye on a couple of horses that should enjoy the ground. My main fancy is the bottom weight, Yanifer. Trained by Harriet Bethell, it would be some story if this 5yo son of Dandy Man got his head in front. Bethell has battled back from serious adversity after her fall and she has shown she can train them, sending out 16 winners from 94 runners and winning with 8 of the 10 horses she has trained since taking out her licence.
Stable Star
There is no doubt that Yanifer has been the stable star since she started training. He was formerly with Jamie Osborne and he won three races for him as a 3yo in 2021. Two of those three wins came on easyish ground and his mark rose from 54 to 67. After four defeats off his revised mark of 73, Osborne decided to sell and he started last season with Bethell off a mark of 73.
After going close on two of his first three starts on fast ground, he finally got off the mark for Bethell here over 7f (gd/fm). That came by a nose off 71 and he followed up with a 2.5L Chester win off 73. After a short mid-season break he returned with a close 2nd off 79, before landing soft ground 7f heats at York (off 80) and Catterick (off 86).
The assessor gave him 6lbs for the second win and he is off 92 now. Has the handicapper caught up? You couldn’t say for sure on his prep run for this at Wolves because Jason Hart never allowed him to get into the race. This horse is unexposed on testing ground and his form figures on ground with soft in the description read 111821. His form figures on straight tracks read 2211 and he is a former course winner. If he’s trying he’ll be up there with the early pace, hopefully he can make a bold bid at odds of 28/1.
2023 Doncaster Lincoln meeting Tip: Yanifer e/w @ 28/1 (6 places) NB
The other horse I’ll take a chance on today in the Lincoln is the Richard Hannon trained Witch Hunter. He is in stall 20 and Sean Levey takes the ride. The 4yo son of Siyouni comes into the race piping fit after a winter all weather campaign and when you look at his form, it is hard to understand why he is as big as 66/1 with some firms.
He has been running really well, winning at Wolves on Boxing Day and then going down by a short head on his last run at Lingfield. Even though he has yet to win on grass, he has some pretty decent turf form and it is on soft ground. His first two runs, in a maiden at Newbury (6f gd/sft) and in a Class 2 conditions race at Salisbury were crackers and on his last start on easy ground, he was beat 0.75L in a Listed contest at York by Canonized (106 rated Ever Given back in 4th).
On his all weather form he is capable of winning off today’s mark of 102 and maybe this step up to a mile on testing could be just what he needs. His two winning half siblings have won on proper testing ground, including a Listed heat over a mile, and Siyouni’s progeny are usually effective over this distance. He’s drawn in 20, the stall that produced the winner in 2017, and at odds of 66/1, hopefully Witch Hunter can conjure up some magic and nick some place money.
