2023 Dutch Darts Championship Betting Preview

It was our second runner up of the season in last week’s Austrian Darts Open when Josh Rock lost 6-8 to Jonny Clayton. The place bet win was most welcome, but let’s try and go one better this weekend at the 2023 Dutch Darts Championship. Michael Smith is the defending champion having beaten Danny Noppert in the final.

The Seeds

1 Luke Humphries

Dumped out in the second round last week with a 1-6 defeat to Daryl Gurney. He had a doubling drought with just one from nine hit. He has won six of his last ten and had been playing very well in the main. It was probably just one of those days but something of a worry.

2 Dave Chisnall

Not in good form having lost five of his last ten matches. Having won ET1, Chizzy has failed to get beyond the third round since and he lost his second round match to Mickey Mansell last week.

3 Michael van Gerwen

Like Chisnall, MVG has lost five of his last ten matches. He reached last weekend’s semi-final but was thrashed 0-7 by Josh Rock. It was a dire performance, the kind of which is creeping into his game more and more.

He just couldn’t hit a double. Zero from eight attempts. MVG now has these matches were he can just unravel when he misses a few doubles. He lost the final of ET3 after missing seventeen doubles. It is happening once or twice in every ten matches and even for MVG, it is hard to win matches when you are missing a lot of doubles.

He was out of sorts last night, going down 3-6 to Peter Wright. He won the first leg with a 154 checkout but he looked beaten very early on.

4 Damon Heta

He is starting to get his win rate up in 2023 (58%) and has won six of his last ten, but he is still lacking in the sort of consistency which suggests a win is just around the corner. Damon lost 4-6 to Jonny Clayton last week, but he played well and just lost to the better player. He is putting in some decent runs in tournaments again and another good run is possible.

5 Dirk van Duijvenbode

With a win rate of 79% and having won eight of his last ten matches, Dirk remains in the winner in waiting category. Frustration is a big threat, however. Last weekend he averaged 107.4 against Joe Cullen and lost 2-6.

He is putting in strong performances and losing matches. He can’t do much more and he will run into players who just hit their sweet spot, but it will piss him off. If he can keep his standard of play going, surely a win is coming?

6 Rob Cross

Frustration must be a big part for Rob Cross’ game at the moment, and has been all year. There are matches he deserved to lose but he is often playing well and losing and his head is dropping. His win rate is 58%, down from 67% for the last two seasons. The ability is there, but the confidence? Maybe not.

7 Michael Smith

He has won seven of his last ten and won Night 13 in the PL last night. He struggled to a 6-5 win over Pietreczko in last week’s second round before he lost 2-6 to Mensur Suljovic. Smith may have just struggled with the pace of play in that match, but his three recent defeats have all seen poor doubling with checkout rates of 23%, 20% and 18%.

It is hard to say when he is going to lose his doubling radar but it is hurting his chances. That said, he won ET4 a few weeks ago, so his best form is never far away and last night’s win is a positive.

8 Nathan Aspinall

Runner up in ET4 but went out in the third round last weekend after a poor round of doubling against Danny Noppert. He has won six of his last ten matches but his win rate in 2023 is 57% and he does find winning titles difficult. Always capable of a good run and he might get one over the line.

9 Danny Noppert

Much the same can be said about Danny Noppert. He has a better win rate of 64% and he has won a title in 2023, but he is throwing in too many absolute stinkers. He lost 1-6 to Daryl Gurney last weekend, averaged just 79.4.

That is back to back quarter finals lost on the Euro Tour and he lost a semi-final before that. He is having good runs, or getting tight at the business end, depending on your point of view, but he looks a little too high risk at the odds.

10 Peter Wright

Continues to struggle. He has lost six of his last ten matches, has only won three of his eight matches on the Euro Tour, and his overall win rate in 2023 is 45%. He shows flashes of the old Snakebite but there are just far too many poor performances to imagine he can win a title. Snakebite beat MVG last night, played well and averaged 97.4, but then lost 2-6 to Michael Smith and averaged just 80.

11 Ryan Searle

Blowing hot and cold but there is too much cold to be backing him to win. Half of his last ten matches have seen sub 90 averages. I am not sure why he took the best part of a month off, but it seems to have stalled what was some very good early season form.

12 Joe Cullen

He has had better results on the Euro Tour recently with a semi-final in ET4 and a quarter final last weekend. Perhaps the consistency required to win titles isn’t there yet but he put in two very strong performances last weekend, most notably his 6-2 win over Dirk van Duijvenbode when both players averaged 107. With his Euro Tour pedigree he has to enter calculations.

13 Jonny Clayton

Returned to the winners’ circle on the Euro Tour with his second Austrian Darts Open title. He needed deciding legs against Jelle Klassen and Daryl Gurney, but he was the one who hit the winning darts.

He has won seven of his last ten matches and hit five ton plus averages. Back-to back winners on the Euro Tour are not unheard of. His 2-6 loss to Gerwyn Price last night was on in which he was just beaten by the better player and his 100 average was not too shabby.

14 Martin Schindler

Has won seven of his last ten matches, reached back to back Players Championship quarter finals but lost his opening match last weekend, a 5-6 loss to Simon Whitlock. It was a match that was ripped from his hands.

He has been having good runs in many tournaments all year and may well do so again. He is still looking for that first PDC title, could it come on the Euro Tour? His last three defeats have all come in a deciding leg so he is proving to be very hard to beat and is a lively outsider.

15 Josh Rock 

Remains in great form, winning eight of his last ten matches. He had back to back quarter finals in PC9 & 10 and was runner up in the Austrian Darts Open last weekend. He is taking some stopping right now and very much on the short list.

16 Andrew Gilding

A semi-finalist here last year, Gilding has lost five of his ten matches and he is not at the top of his game.

Notable Non-Seeds

Daryl Gurney

Made it all the way to the semi-final last week despite not being seeded. It wasn’t vintage Superchin but it was a very important run after a frustrating time. His win rate in 2023 is a very healthy 69% but he wasn’t getting many breaks on stage. To finally get a good run will have been a weight off his shoulders and it will have reduced frustration. Hopefully we can see more good runs, more often.

Dimitri van den Bergh

Has won six of his last ten matches but he just isn’t impressing. He has only won two matches on the Euro Tour this year and while he reached the semi-final of PC10 a couple of weeks ago, his scoring is a little way off his best.

Gabriel Clemens

Is playing better than winning five of his last ten matches suggests. He is playing with a good deal of consistency, is scoring well but he is missing too many doubles. If he can perform on the outer ring, he can have good runs.

Ross Smith

Has a seasonal win rate of 72%, right up there with the best, but he has lost five of his last ten matches, largely down to poor doubling. He is blowing hot and cold on the outer ring and if he gets his doubling boots on, he can have a good run.

Ian White

Is showing good form in 2023, winning 70% of his matches and recently reached the semi-final of PC10 a couple of weeks ago. There is a lot to like about his game and while his confidence will still be fragile, he is heading the right way.

Krzysztof Ratajski

Won PC9 a couple of weeks ago but since then he has played seven and lost four. He is another that has hit poor form on the doubles.

Gian van Veen

Can be called 2023’s Josh Rock. The Dutch youngster is doing great things on the dartboard and looks to be a special talent. He is improving rapidly. His seasonal average is up 5 points, his win rate is 68% and while he is playing a lot of development tour matches, it is his play at senior level which is really impressive.

His average in Players Championship matches is 97.2. That is the 8th highest and better than the likes of Dirk van Duijvenbode, Michael van Gerwen and Ross Smith. He reached the final of PC29 late last season, won his tour card at the European Tour School, reached the quarter finals of PC3, PC6 and PC8.

Van Veen has had a nine darter this season and won one match with a 180 followed by a 170 check out. He is the real deal and if he doesn’t win a senior title this season then I will have to take out a Netherlands citizenship.

Gary Anderson

Makes his first return to the Euro Tour stage since 2016. His 2023 win rate is 70%, his best since 2018. He won PC8 last month and was runner up in PC5. He is playing more, he is playing better and the fact that he has decided to return to the Euro Tour tells us that he isn’t ready to retire just yet.

How he gets on with travelling will be interesting as that is why he withdrew from the tour in the first place. He no longer has the Premier League travelling to do so his schedule allows him to play Euro Tour events without a massive amount of mileage like Chris Dobey has to do, for example. After six years away from it, it may take him a while to get used to the rhythm of a Euro Tour weekend, but he will also be playing in the next two.

The Draw

The fact that there are so many unseeded players who are coming here in good form means we may see another player starting in the first round having a deep run, just as Daryl Gurney did last weekend. There are certainly going to be some tough first and second round ties. The draw for the seeds is exactly the same as it was last week, but where all these dangerous unseeded players fit in will be the difference.

1st Quarter

Humphries, Gilding, Aspinall and Noppert are the four seeds. All have claims for a good run but none stand out as a potential winner right now. This quarter was won by the unseeded Daryl Gurney last week and maybe we will see another unseeded player in the mix.

The notable unseeded players joining this quarter are Ross Smith who will meet Humphries if he beats Wattimena today. Daryl Gurney is once again drawn in the 1st quarter and he faces the talented Pietreczko, with the winner facing Aspinall. Gurney has a 7-3 H2H record against the Asp, so there is a way in for Superchin again. Ian White will face Gilding should he beat Arron Monk.

2nd Quarter

Sees Heta, last week’s winner Jonny Clayton, Dirk van Duivenbode and Joe Cullen as the four seeds. It was Jonny Clayton who came through this quarter last weekend. Dirk is a massive threat and is on home ground. There are no notable unseeded players in this quarter.

3rd Quarter

Josh Rock came through this quarter in Austria and went all the way to the final. Chisnall, Michael Smith and Peter Wright are the other seeds, none of whom made the quarter final. Smith was impressive in winning Night 13 in the PL last night he is a live chance to win his second Euro Tour title.

Krzysztof Ratajski is the one unseeded player in this quarter. He faces Andy Boulton today and if he wins that, faces the struggling Peter Wright, so not a bad draw for The Polish Eagle.

4th Quarter

Michael van Gerwen had a relatively easy passage to the semi-final last weekend, beating another seed, Ryan Searle 6-1 in the quarter final. Cross and Schindler went out earlier.

Schindler is something of a dark horse here but he is 2-8 against MVG. Cross has lost his last three against Searle which puts a damper on his chances and with Searle losing heavily to MVG last week, it looks good for Mighty Mike to please his home fans. On Paper it looks good, but having watched so many poor performances from MVG lately, he is easily overlooked at odds of 5.50.

Like the 1st quarter, the 4th quarter is packed with notable unseeded players. Gian van Veen faces Gabriel Clemens today with the winner facing MVG. Gary Anderson faces Czech qualifier Roman Benecky and he should then face Martin Schindler, which is hard to call. Raymond van Barneveld plays Dimitri van den Bergh with the winner playing Ryan Searle.

2023 Dutch Darts Championship Ante Post Selections

In the first quarter I like the odds for Daryl Gurney. Fresh from his run to the semi-final last weekend he is in a tough quarter but if he can get past the tricky Pietreczko in the first round his draw is not the worst and he will be feeling more confident than seven days ago.

2023 Dutch Darts Championship Tip: 0.5 point Daryl Gurney to win @ 101.00 with Betfred, Betvictor, Betfair

The second quarter looks to be all about the seeds. Heta and Clayton are set to meet again in the third round and that is a coin toss. Dirk van Duijvenbode and Joe Cullen are set for a rematch of their high scoring match of last week. I have to stick with Dirk, he is playing to well not to have a real chance every time he steps up to the oche.

2023 Dutch Darts Championship Tip: 0.5 point Dirk van Duijvenbode to win @ 17.00 with Boylesports

The third quarter looks to be between Michael Smith and Josh Rock. Smith is 3-1 in their H2H’s, he is fresh from a PL win and he won ET4. Rock will be buzzing after making his first Euro Tour final. Smith is the 6.50 second favourite Rock 17.00.

2023 Dutch Darts Championship Tip: 0.5 point e/w Josh Rock to win @ 17.00 generally available

The final quarter is very tasty. I do not fancy MVG to win this week. His head is a way with the fairies right now. Gian van Veen will be very interesting to watch. If he beats Clemens, which is not a given, he would face MVG and he could take him down. Could he go all the way? It’s unlikely given his lack of experience and even at 151.00 I’ll have to pass him over. Gary Anderson has a live chance if he isn’t too grumpy about travelling. He is playing very well, winning seven of his last ten and scoring heavily. He has picked up a Players Championship title a month ago and he is close to his best again.

2023 Dutch Darts Championship Tip: 0.5 point e/w Gary Anderson to win @ 34.00 with Betfred, Boylesports, Betvictor, Unibet

Due to the clash with the Azerbaijan GP this weekend, there will be no coverage of the afternoon sessions. Hopefully the evening sessions will be manageable.

-JamesPunt