2023 Epsom Derby Runner by Runner Guide – DS
2023 Epsom Derby Runner-by-Runner Guide
The 2023 Epsom Derby is fast approaching and as of yet, no standout contender has emerged. Last year we backed West Wind Blows and he got trapped wide early and was never involved. The favourite, Desert Crown, obliged but the 2-3-4 were priced up at 150s, 25s and 66s so hopefully, we can land a place at fancy odds. Dave Stevos has a 2023 Epsom Derby runner-by-runner guide with a couple of e/w fancies at big prices, check it out below. Our 2023 Oaks runner by runner guide can be viewed here.
1. Adelaide River
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Probable Jockey: Wayne Lordan
Best Odds: 66/1
From the yard that has won this race eight times since 2001. Aidan O’Brien has four left in the 2023 Epsom Derby and this lad looks the 3rd or possibly 4th string. That doesn’t mean that he is a no hoper, because we have seen plenty of Ballydoyle ‘also rans’ running huge in this race before.
The main angle with this horse is that he has yet to run on good ground. Since a maiden win at Dundalk he has had four runs on soft, yielding, heavy and soft ground. The last twice he has been beat around 6l by both Dubai Mile and Arrest on testing ground.
Given that he is out of a War Front dam, he could turn inside out on faster ground so do not underestimate him. A very interesting outsider.
2. Alder
Trainer: Donnacha O’Brien
Probable Jockey: Gavin Ryan
Best Odds: 33/1
Another son of Australia and he is trained by Donnacha O’Brien for Coolmore and his Mum. Two wins so far, as a 2yo at Killarney (8f gd) and as a 3yo at Cork (10f gd). Sent off fav for the Listed Dee Stakes at Chester (10.5f sft) and was beat by San Antonio.
That was his third run on ground without good in the description and his third defeat. Remains unbeaten on good ground so he’ll be delighted to see the weather forecast for this week. His grand dam is a half to 2007 Oaks heroine Light Shift so bred for the job and Coolmore will be very keen to get a Classic win into his sire, Australia. Not discounted.
3. Arrest
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Probable Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Best Odds: 6/1
Son of Frankel was a wide margin winner in the Chester Vase. Beat Adelaide River by 6L and seemed to relish the testing ground. Won his maiden narrowly on good to firm at Sandown (8f) but his career best efforts have come on heavy and soft.
Went down by a head to Dubai Mile on heavy at Saint Cloud last October in a G1 (Adelaide River 6L back in 3rd). Already proven at the Derby trip and the only question is whether he’ll be as effective on the faster ground at Epsom. Related to a host of horses that loved fast ground so on breeding, he should be just as good, if not better, on good to firm.
Will have the assistance of Frankie, who will be riding in his last ever Epsom Derby. Currently a 6/1 shot but could go off shorter due to the Dettori factor. Obvious claims.
4. Artistic Star
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Probable Jockey: Rob Hornby
Best Odds: 50/1
Two time winner, both on easy ground. Landed a maiden on debut at Nottingham last October (8f sft) and then added a Sandown novice (10f gd/sft) on his sole 3yo start. Strength of the form of both races is questionable.
By the right sire for this race, Galileo, and out of a Fastnet Rock dam who was a useful sprinter in Australia. His full sister Forbearance was a G3 winner over 12f on fast ground and his full brother Harpo Marx has G1 placed form in Australia on good ground at 12f.
Should handle the conditions well but might just be outclassed at this level.
5. Auguste Rodin
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Probable Jockey: Ryan Moore
Best Odds: 7/2
Flagged up by Aidan O’Brien in pre-season as a potential Triple Crown winner. Sent off the 13/8 fav for the Guineas at Newmarket (8f sft) where absolutely nothing went right. Hampered early by his stablemate and Triple Crown dreams ended before they began.
Looked a proper horse at 2yo on soft ground so that can’t be blamed for his Newmarket no show. Won a G2 on soft at Leopardstown and the Vertem Futurity on heavy at Doncaster. His sole start on good resulted in defeat on his debut but his dam was effective on good to firm and she finished 2nd in the Oaks on fast ground.
Any horse from Ballydoyle has to be entitled to maximum respect in this race but odds of 7/2 look short given his lack of winning form on good ground and his Guineas flop.
6. Covent Garden
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Probable Jockey: Seamie Heffernan
Best Odds: 100/1
Another Ballydoyle entry that has shown his best form on soft ground. Beat 16L behind Dubai Mile and Arrest in France on final 2yo run. Returned with satisfactory effort at Navan in May when beat a length over 13f (sft) by Peking Opera.
By Galileo so not lacking in the sire department but his five winning full siblings mostly acted on easy ground. Hard to make a case for on form.
7. Dear My Friend
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Probable Jockey: James Doyle
Best Odds: 100/1
Highly tried after winning a Beverley Novice (7.5f gd/fm) by 5L. Came up short on first three stakes runs but got off the mark on his first 3yo start in a Listed contest at Newcastle (8f st). Stepped up to 10f next time at York and looked a suspect stayer.
By Pivotal, a high class sire who has a better record with horses over shorter distances than the Derby trip. His dam is by Teofilo, who is a stamina source, and his half brother Red Force One has won at 16f on the flat and over 20f over hurdles.
However, Dear My Friend hasn’t got home on two tries at 10f and he looks to be up against it.
8. Dubai Mile
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Probable Jockey: Daniel Muscutt
Best Odds: 14/1
Our 2000 Guineas ante-post bet ran a cracker to finish 5th in that race. It was soft ground that day and it was heavy when he beat Arrest at Saint Cloud last season. However, the son of Roaring Lion is versatile regarding ground. His maiden win came on good to firm at Windsor (8f) and he was only 0.5L behind The Foxes in a good ground G2 at Newmarket last season.
His 2yo form stands up to scrutiny and given that he stayed 10f last year, his Guineas run was very encouraging. There isn’t a whole lot of stamina on the dam side of his pedigree. He is a half to an 11f winner but his two highest rated half siblings were sprinters.
On breeding the 12f trip has to rate a worry but visually, he has looked like he is crying out for this sort of a test and I can see him making a bold bid from the front. Shortlisted.
9. King of Steel
Trainer: Roger Varian
Probable Jockey: Kevin Stott
Best Odds: 100/1
Twice raced son of top notch sire Wootton Bassett. A big brute of a horse. Landed a Nottingham (8.5f sft) on debut then beat 9L behind Auguste Rodin on heavy in the Vertem Futurity. Was trained by David Loughnane last season but moved to Roger Varian during the Spring.
After he won on debut Andrea Atzeni said he was one of the biggest 2yos he has ever sat on. Will a track like Epsom suit a horse of his size? I’m not too sure. He’s most definitely bred to get 12f but we may not see the best of him until he races on a more conventional, galloping track. The 2023 Epsom Derby is a tough race to start back in and he is best watched.
10. Military Order
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Probable Jockey: William Buick
Best Odds: 7/2
The current joint favourite at 7/2 with Auguste Rodin. Staked his claims with a 1.25L defeat of Waipiro at Lingfield three weeks ago. That was on the all weather but one of his two 2yo wins came on good ground so conditions shouldn’t pose a problem.
By Frankel and out of a Dubawi dam, a classy combination. A full brother to the 2021 winner of this race Adayar, so bred to be a Derby winner. Appleby’s only runner which suggests there is plenty of stable confidence behind him and he’ll have the considerable assistance of William Buick in the saddle.
He got the run of the race at Lingfield last time and on another day Waipiro may have beaten him. I don’t think he is anywhere near bulletproof and he looks worth taking on.
11. Passenger
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute
Probable Jockey: Richard Kingscote
Best Odds: 11/2
Viewed by many as a very unfortunate in the Dante. Richard Kingscote got a lot of stick for the ride and there’s no doubt that he would have gone very close to winning with a clear run. Was unraced as a 2yo, his only other run coming in the Wood Ditton maiden at Newmarket in April (8f gd) which he won by 3L.
That form hasn’t worked out but he showed he could mix it in pattern company at York. He is by Ulysses, a sire that has been somewhat of a slow burner, and his War Front dam won over 12f so on breeding, stamina shouldn’t be an issue.
However, to my eye he didn’t make up as much ground as he should have when he eventually found daylight at York and both The Foxes and White Birch ran through the line stronger. This test may just find him out.
12. San Antonio
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Probable Jockey: N/A
Best Odds: 33/1
Yet another one with minimal form on good ground. Failed to win as a 2yo, beaten twice on soft ground at Tipperary (9f) and Gowran (8.5f). Came back as a 3yo and looked a much stronger horse, winning a maiden at Dundalk under Wayne Lordan (10f st). Backed that up with a solid win in the Dee Stakes at Chester (10.5f sft), beating Alder by 1.75L.
By Dubawi and out of a Galileo mare who finished 2nd behind Enable on fast ground in the Irish Oaks. The Dubawi x Galileo cross often produces horses that relish quick conditions so there is every chance this horse could improve exponentially on good/good to firm.
Aidan O’Brien said today that this horse would be rerouted to France for the French Derby on Sunday so he is an unlikely runner.
13. Sprewell
Trainer: Jessica Harrington
Probable Jockey: Shane Foley
Best Odds: 11/1
Winless as a juvenile but unbeaten as a 3yo. Ran well in a couple of testing ground maidens at the backend of last season and returned with a win in a four runner, heavy ground heat at Naas (8f). Took his form to a whole new level with a wide margin win four weeks ago in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown (10f), again on bottomless ground.
Good ground is a complete unknown for this colt. He clearly relishes cut but his sire Churchill and his dam both went on any ground and if you were guessing what conditions he’d like before he ran by looking at his pedigree, you’d probably say he would be best on quick ground.
He is an intriguing contender for Jessie Harrington and it’ll be fascinating to see how he handles the ground. Odds of 11/1 look short enough considering his lack of good ground form.
14. The Foxes
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Probable Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Best Odds: 10/1
King Power will be looking for a pick me up after Leicester’s relegation last weekend. Will The Foxes provide it? Another son of Churchill, he ran out an impressive winner of the Dante at York. It took him a couple of runs to get the hang of things last year but after a maiden win at Goodwood (7f gd/fm) he came out on top in a great battle with Dubai Mile in the Royal Lodge. A fine run in the Craven on his comeback was followed by that excellent performance on the Knavesmire.
He hails from a good family, being a half to the likes of Matterhorn, Bangkok, Tactic and Perotan. We know he acts on rattling quick ground and on the evidence of the Dante, this extra 2f should not be an issue.
Oisin Murphy will be on board and he is riding well since his comeback. He’ll have a willing partner in The Foxes, I just wonder will he be quite up to this task. Should run a big race but might just bump into one or two improvers.
15. Waipiro
Trainer: Ed Walker
Probable Jockey:
Best Odds: 20/1
A rare good runner for us in recent weeks. We were on at big odds for the Lingfield Derby Trial (12f st) and he found just Military Order too good. The winner got a lovely run up the inside and that was probably what made the difference. Previously hacked up in a Newmarket maiden (10f gd), beating Liberty Lane by 3.5L.
By Australia and out of a Danehill Dancer mare, he’s a half brother to Waikaku, a triple Hong Kong G1 winner on fast ground. Ed Walker has been pretty positive about his horse in the build up and he is surely overpriced on that form with Military Order.
Proven at the trip, proven on the ground and only 1.25L behind the 7/2 joint favourite last time out. Big e/w claims.
16. White Birch
Trainer: John Joseph Murphy
Probable Jockey: Colin Keane
Best Odds: 14/1
Won his second 2yo start at Dundalk (7f) last November in taking fashion. Unconsidered on return in heavy ground Leopardstown G3 but belied odds of 22/1 to beat Up And Under by 0.5L. Showed quick ground was no problem with a superb effort in the Dante, coming from rear to almost nail The Foxes on the line. Ran through the line strong and no doubt Colin Keane will be holding him up to come with a late rattle on Saturday.
His Dutch Art dam only raced once on turf, but she did win 4 of her 6 all weather starts. To be honest, his pedigree is not as glamorous as some of his rivals but there is no doubt that he has plenty of ability.
His odds of 14/1 look pretty fair to me. You could easily make the case that both he and The Foxes would be shorter if they hailed from more fashionable yards and if you are backing either e/w, I wouldn’t put you off.
2023 Epsom Derby – The Verdict
The ground is going to play a huge part on Saturday and there are several horses lurking that could improve massively. I can’t remember a Derby where so many horses had little or no form on good ground. You could play it safe and just go with the animals that are proven on the ground and at the prices, Waipiro would have to be the percentage play at 20/1.
However, if you are trying to uncover a shock winner, the horses that are untested and unexposed on quick ground are the most likely candidates. More often than not, the best bred horses rise to the top in this race so at monstrous odds, Adelaide River is of interest.
Unraced On Good
As was outlined above, Adelaide River is unraced on good ground. He proved no match for Arrest or Dubai Mile the last twice but that was on sloppy ground. His dam was second in an Irish Guineas on good and she is a half to top class dirt performer Uncle Mo. There is every chance that we could see a different horse on this ground. He could also be badly outclassed but at 66/1, it is worth taking a punt on the former outcome.
Alder is by the same sire as Adelaide River but he is proven on the ground. In fact, he is 2/2 on it compared to 0/3 on soft. He got to within 2.25l of Auguste Rodin at Leopardstown on soft last season and on this ground and over this trip, he could well close that gap. He hasn’t looked straightforward the last twice, lugging right at Cork and left at Chester, but if Gavin Ryan can keep him straight, he could outrun his odds of 33/1.
It’s probably best to wait for declarations before having a bet as extra places will be available but at the odds it’s worth having a little on, just in case they shorten this week. Given my recent record, they’ll probably both drift to 100/1!
2023 Epsom Derby Tips: Adelaide River e/w @ 66/1; Alder e/w @ 33/1
*Update
With Alder now a non runner, San Antonio is put up as an alternative at 40/1.
