2023 Epsom Oaks Runner by Runner Guide – DS
2023 Epsom Oaks Runner-by-Runner Guide
Before The Derby on Friday at Epsom, the fillies will fight it out for Classic Glory in the 2023 Epsom Oaks. We have a short priced favourite in the shape of Savethelastdance, an emphatic winner at Chester. She’ll face ten rivals, chief among them the Gosden pair of Running Lion and Soul Sister. Can anyone stop the Ballydoyle hotpot? Check out our runner by runner guide below. You can read our Epsom Derby preview here.
1. Be Happy
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Seamie Heffernan
Best Odds: 33/1
One of three from Ballydoyle and looks the second string for the 2023 Epsom Oaks. Seamie is on board and this filly is untried on good ground. She won on her debut at Cork (8f sft/hvy) last September. Her only other start as a 2yo came in a soft ground Curragh G3 and she shaped as though needing further in 5th. Pleasing seasonal comeback when 3rd in a Saint Cloud G3 and then beat 1.75L by Eternal Hope in the Oaks Trial at Lingfield on the all-weather.
By Camelot and out of a Dansili dam, so you would imagine quick conditions will suit. Her dam is from the family of 12f G1 winner Anabaa Blue and while her full brother won on heavy, his three peak efforts came on good ground.
Not much between her and Eternal Silence but it could be the case that she’ll be used to force a strong pace for her stablemate. Unless good ground elicits massive improvement, she looks an unlikely winner.
2. Bright Diamond
Trainer: Karl Burke
Jockey: Clifford Lee
Best Odds: 66/1
Made a big impression when winning by 9L on debut at Newmarket (7f gd/fm). Karl Burke then stepped her into G3 company at Goodwood and she ran well on easy ground to finish 3rd behind Fairy Cross. Signed off her 2yo campaign with a solid 3rd in the G1 Fillies Mile at HQ and then probably would have finished 3rd on her return in the Lingfield Oaks Trial with a kinder trip.
This filly only cost 23k as a yearling which probably reflects her pedigree. She is by El Kabeir, not exactly a fashionable sire, and her Elusive Pimpernel dam was a maiden who achieved a peak official rating of 68. It is a pretty ordinary pedigree compared to some of her rivals.
That being said, this will be her first time back on rattling quick ground since her striking debut win. She would have finished closer to Eternal Hope if she wasn’t trapped so wide at Lingfield and she’s an outsider that could outrun her odds.
3. Caernarfon
Trainer: Jack Channon
Jockey: Connor Beasley
Best Odds: 33/1
Had a busy 2yo campaign, running seven times. Won twice, a handicap off 70 at Ayr (7f gd) on her fifth start and then a Listed Newmarket heat (8f sft) on her final juvenile outing. Reappeared in the 1000 Guineas on soft ground and stayed on for 4th after getting badly outpaced. Didn’t exactly rattle home though so not a given she’ll stay 12f.
Her pedigree also suggests that this trip might be an issue. She is by Cityscape, a sire with a winner to runner strike rate of 33% at 7-9f compared to 27% at 12f-13f. Her full sister was a G3 winner at 7f and her dam is from a family of decent milers.
I can see why connections are giving this a go after her Guineas effort but it could be a bridge (and a trip) too far.
4. Eternal Hope
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
Best Odds: 14/1
Just like in the Derby, Godolphin have just one representative in the 2023 Epsom Oaks. This filly is untried on turf, her three career runs coming on the all-weather. Unraced at 2yo, she made her debut at Wolves (9.5f) in February where she was beat a length into 3rd. A fortnight later she got off the mark in a Chelmsford maiden (10f) and she then followed up in the Oaks Trial at Lingfield, beating Be Happy by almost 2L.
While she has only run on artificial surfaces, she has a proper turf pedigree. By Teofilo, a high class sire of stayers, and out of a Dubawi dam who is a half to three time G1 winner, Rio De La Plata. Those three wins came on rain softened ground, though he did win at Listed and G3 level on good to firm.
The ground is a total unknown but that is reflected in this filly’s price of 14/1. Even if she does act on it, she has to improve markedly to trouble the favourite.
5. Heartache Tonight
Trainer: David Menuisier
Jockey: Cristian Demuro
Best Odds: 20/1
Another contender that has yet to encounter good ground. Thrice raced in France, her debut coming on heavy at Longchamp over 9f. She won that by a length but it was an ordinary maiden. Reappeared in a Saint Cloud G3 in April (10.5f sft) and ran well in 3rd, 1.25l behind the winner Crown Princess. Repeated that form when 4th in a Longchamp G1 on her last start, finishing behind the same two horses in 4th. Boogie Woogie was 1.5L behind her in 6th and she got to within 2.75l of Savethelastdance at Leopardstown in April, an interesting formline.
This filly has an unremarkable page. By a 3k sire in Recorder, her big claim to fame is that she is a half sister to the brilliant Wonderful Tonight, winner of the 2020 Champions Fillies and Mares at Ascot. All of her six wins came on heavy/soft, so the ground has to rate as a huge worry for Heartache Tonight.
If the heavens opened, she would be of interest but with fast ground looking likely, she is best watched.
6. Maman Joon
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Jockey: Kevin Stott
Best Odds: 50/1
A once raced maiden. Beat 9.5l by Gather Ye Rosebuds on debut at Newbury (10f sft). Was given an educational ride by Kevin Stott. Winner subsequently finished last behind Soul Sister at York in the Musidora.
Richard Hannon’s filly is bred in the purple and cost 400k as a yearling. She is by Derby and Arc winner Sea The Stars and he is out of a fast ground, listed winning Norse Dancer dam who has produced some very smart stayers. Her half brothers Candleford and Atty Persse both won Royal Ascot handicaps at 12f on fast ground, so conditions should suit her at Epsom.
Hard to make a case for on form but is plenty of positives to take from her pedigree. Should improve for quick ground but will need to. If she does, a place is not out of the question.
7. Red Riding Hood
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Wayne Lordan
Best Odds: 66/1
A strong looking filly. Has run four times and has just a 10.5f Dundalk maiden win to her name. Good run on debut at Ascot (9f gd) last September, beat 3L into 2nd by Alseyoob. Beat by stablemate Jackie Oh on heavy at Naas on first run of 2023 and then got off the mark at Dundalk in April. At Naas last time it was a strange run. Seamie pushed her to the front then took a pull and that seemed to light her up. She kept on galloping to the line but was outpaced by two faster rivals close to home.
She is by Triple Crown winner Justify, a sire who has yet to have a UK winner at 12f (0/1). Milwaukee, out of a Galileo dam like Red Riding Hood, is his only previous runner at the trip and he didn’t stay. Her two half-siblings won at 6f/7f and her dam was a G1 mile winner. Not much stamina there.
Very hard to fancy on what we have seen so far. It looked like she might stay further last time but like Be Happy, her job might be forcing a strong pace for Savethelastdance.
8. Running Lion
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Best Odds: 6/1
Very straightforward daughter of Roaring Lion. 2.5l behind Alseyoob on debut at Newmarket (7f gd/fm) but stayed on really nicely. Hasn’t tasted defeat in four subsequent runs. Scooted home upped to a mile at Lingfield next time and landed a Novice under a penalty at Chelmsford on her final 2yo run.
Won a 3yo conditions race on her return at Kempton, again at 8f. Then, last time out, she absolutely hosed up under hands and heels on soft in the Pretty Polly at Newmarket (10f). She probably didn’t beat much but boy, was she impressive.
This filly is by Roaring Lion and she is the second stakes winner produced by her Dansili dam. Her half sister Majestic Glory won a 7f G3 at Newmarket and she is from the same family as G1 winning miler Zafeen. You couldn’t be 100% sure that she’ll stay 12f on breeding but her style of racing should give her every chance of getting it. Rock solid e/w claims if she does stay.
9. Savethelastdance
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Best Odds: 5/4
Made favourite for the 2023 Epsom Oaks after her spectacular 22L demolition job at Chester (11.5f sft). Well beat only start at 2yo but has looked a different horse this year. Sprang a 20/1 surprise when winning on her return in a Leopardstown maiden (10f hvy), beating Boogie Woogie by 2.25L. That form has been franked by the runner up and third. Probably didn’t beat a whole lot at Chester but it was a visually impressive performance.
This filly has yet to race on decent ground. The scary thing is, she is bred to be even better on quick turf. Galileo’s progeny are well known for improving on good or better and her Scat Daddy dam was a three time winner, including a G1, on firm. Her half brother Mongolian Saturday also won on good/firm ground. All the signals suggest that good to firm ground is going to bring about improvement.
If that turns out to be the case, this filly is going to be very hard to beat. A worthy favourite.
10. Sea Of Roses
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Rob Hornby
Best Odds: 50/1
Twice raced at 2yo, runner up in a Ffos Las novice on debut (8f gd/sft) and won a Doncaster maiden (8f sft). Ran well in defeat on return in a French G3 on soft but then was well beaten on good ground behind Soul Sister in the Musidora at York. Hung left handed and looked a suspect stayer that day and may need soft ground.
She is by Sea The Moon, a sire whose progeny often enjoy cut in the ground. Her US bred dam has produced plenty of winners, the best being Desert Icon (by Sea The Stars). He won on good to firm but his career best efforts came on good to soft and over 10f.
All the available evidence suggests that this filly needs soft ground. Unless it rains, she could be set to struggle.
11. Soul Sister
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Best Odds: 5/2
Last, but not least, we have Soul Sister. Frankie rides and he was on board for both of her runs this season. She won a backend maiden at Doncaster last season (8f sft), her only juvenile run. That day she got away with the ground but it found her out when she returned in a G3 at Newbury (7f sft). She trailed in 22L behind the winner and connections immediately blamed the ground. They were proved right when she absolutely hacked up in the Musidora at York, her first run on decent ground.
She is by Frankel, whose progeny usually handle most types of ground, and she is out of a Dansili dam who has produced four other winners, three of whom relished fast ground. Her full brother, Herman Hesse, won twice at 14f so stamina shouldn’t be an issue and she shaped as though 12f would pose no problems at York.
She is clearly a very talented filly who has her ideal conditions, the question is whether she’ll be good enough to topple the O’Brien hotpot. Not much value in her odds but should run a big race.
2023 Epsom Oaks – The Verdict
This revolves around Savethelastdance. Her Chester win was spectacular and there is plenty of substance to her maiden win too. On breeding, you could make the case she has been winning in spite of soft ground and my money would be on her being even better on good, good to firm. If she does improve on the ground, she should be up to giving Aidan O’Brien his seventh Oaks winner in nine years and his fourth in a row.
Of the remainder, Running Lion is my idea of the biggest threat. She did everything so easily when winning at Newmarket and she should be equally as (if not more) effective on better ground. The trip is a slight doubt for her on breeding but she probably represents the best value of the market leaders at around 6/1.
Place Claims?
Do any of the outsiders have place claims? The money is coming for Heartache Tonight but will she handle quick ground? I’m not too sure. Maman Joon is the most lightly raced horse in this field and it might be worth taking a punt that she takes a huge step forward now tackling better ground for the first time.
It was a pleasing debut on soft at Newbury (10f), despite the margin of defeat. You could see that Kevin Stott didn’t want to give her a hard race on the ground and he only gave her one tap of the whip. She should have learned loads from that run and she’s bred to be at her best on fast ground over 12f.
To be honest, the top two or three in the betting do look the most likely winners but there isn’t much depth to the race. In the hope that one of the market leaders doesn’t produce their best and 3rd is up for grabs, a speculative e/w bet for small stakes on Maman Joon at 50s is recommended.
