2023 European Darts Matchplay Preview – JP
2023 European Darts Matchplay O/r Betting Preview
After the unique format of the World Cup of Darts, we get back to the usual sort of tournament this weekend. The 2023 European Darts Matchplay starts this afternoon and James Punt has a preview. Due to the clash with the F1 this weekend, James won’t be writing daily match previews, check out his outright betting fancies for this Euro Tour event below.
2023 European Darts Matchplay
We have had a month off the Euro Tour but it returns to Trier in Germany for the European Darts Matchplay. They say God loves a trier and I’ve been trying to end the run of tipping runners up on the Euro Tour.
Luke Humphries losing to Rob Cross at the European Grand Prix was our fifth Euro Tour runner up from the nine events held so far and the third in a row. Gerwyn Price was our only winner back at the International Open (ET3). However we have a 13.00 point profit from the ante post bets this season. So who’s name i6 on the runners up trophy this weekend?
Former Winners
The 2023 European Darts Matchplay is the seventh edition of the event. MVG has won three and been runner up once. James Wade (2016), Joe Cullen (2019) and Luke Humphries (2022) are the other three winners. Dave Chisnall has been runner up twice, the last time in 2016.
This season the Euro Tour has seen seven different winners. Dave Chisnall and Gerwyn Price have both won two and there have been wins for Michael Smith, Jonny Clayton, MVG, Peter Wright (yes, really) and Rob Cross. Luke Humphries has been a three time runner up in 2023 having won four in 2022.
Dave Chisnall tops the OOM (he was runner up in the Czech Darts Open as well as his two wins). Either Chisnall or Humphries have been in the final of five of the nine events played in 2023, and they played each other in the final of ET1.
Iceman Out
Gerwyn Price pulled out on Thursday. That was no great surprise as he said he was off on holiday after winning the World Cup. It is just a shame he left it so late. I don’t like re-writes. The seedings got a mix up, Ross Smith is elevated to seeded status, and after fellow Welshman Jim Williams again withdrew, Andrew Gilding and Callan Rydz got late call ups.
This is the last tournament before the cut off for the World Matchplay which begins on the 15th of July. Players such as Willie O’Connor and Simon Whitlock need deep runs to qualify, others like Luke Woodhouse and Ricardo Pietreczko likely need to make the semi- final, while Rydz and a host of others need to win.
Brendan Dolan, Kim Huybrechts and Raymond van Barneveld are provisionally qualified, but can be overtaken if they have early exits. Steve Beaton will be at home, just hoping that he has already done enough to keep his place. It is a big deal to qualify as you get £10000 of ranking money as first round loser in Blackpool, so those players are going to be extra nervous.
The Seeds
1 Luke Humphries
Once again Humphries is the defending champion. A four time runner up on the Euro Tour this season and allowed to go off at generous odds every time. He has a 70% win rate in 2023 and has won seven of his last ten matches. He has enjoyed a few weeks off to recharge his batteries and they probably needed recharging after losing three of the last four finals on the Euro Tour.
2 Dirk van Duijvenbode
Dirk is hard to place right now. His game was in great shape earlier in the season but then he injured his knee in a bizarre walk on accident. His win rate in 2023 is 73% but since he injured himself at the Dutch Darts Championship, he has played 16 and won 8.
He hasn’t hit a ton plus average in those 16 matches and while he hasn’t completely fallen off the cliff, he hasn’t been the player he was in the first three or four months of the year.
3 Dave Chisnall
A bit like Van Duijvenbode, Chizzy has gone off the boil recently. He was runner up in the Czech Darts Open in May and followed that up with a Players Championship quarter final. Since then he has played six and won three and his scoring has a taken a bit of a dip. It is now 17 matches since his last ton plus average. His last 25 matches have seen three ton plus averages, the 25 before that saw thirteen.
4 Damon Heta
Finally got over the winning line in Players Championship 14 a couple of weeks ago. He has lost four Euro Tour semi-finals so he may be due a win, in much the same way as Rob Cross won on the Pro Tour and followed it up with his first ever Euro Tour title last time out at the European Darts Grand Prix. He has won nine of his last ten matches so it is hard to fault his form.
5 Rob Cross
Finally won his first Euro Tour title in ET9, getting revenge on Luke Humphries who beat him in the 2022 final. He has won three of six matches after that win and has won seven of his last ten. He has won two of his last six tournaments and has to be a serious contender.
6 Michael van Gerwen
Hasn’t played since the US Masters World Series four weeks ago. Missed out on the World Cup due to suffering after some dental work. He had been in great form before his break, winning nine of his last ten matches. He won the Premier League final and followed that up by winning the US Masters. MVG has won 50% of the European Darts Matchplay titles held so far and been runner up in another.
7 Michael Smith
Never got going at the World Cup but he was running hot going into it, winning eight of his last ten matches and winning PC13 a couple of weeks ago. He won the German Darts Grand Prix but outside of that he hasn’t enjoyed much success on this year’s Euro Tour, going out at the second or third round stage five times.
8 Nathan Aspinall
Has a win rate of just 56% in 2023 and he has won six of his last ten matches. He was runner up in the German Darts Grand Prix and has reached the quarter final of the last three Euro Tour events. His scoring has been excellent recently and he is hitting a lot of big numbers. He will be fresh after a little break and he is on the short list.
9 Danny Noppert
Not near his best form scoring wise. He has won six of his last ten but despite reaching a semi-final and three quarter finals on the Euro Tour this season, he doesn’t look like a winner in waiting.
10 Josh Rock
Rock hasn’t been at his best recently, losing four of his last ten. He was runner up in PC12 five weeks ago but since then his scoring has been patchy.
11 Ryan Searle
Heavy Metal was on fire in the first three months of the year, winning PC1 and being runner up in two other Players Championships. Since losing the final of PC6 in mid-March, he has only played 18 matches and lost 10 of them. He has lost seven of his last ten and is struggling for form. He averaged just 79.69 in the last Euro Tour event, going down 1-6 to Madars Razma.
12 Jonny Clayton
Picked up his second World Cup of Darts two weeks ago and his confidence will be high. Won PC 12 last month, won ET5 in April, so a trophy a month for The Ferret. Can he win the first tournament of July? He certainly needs to be considered.
13 Martin Schindler
Still searching for that first PDC title. He has won five of his last ten matches and is scoring well in the main, but still lacks for consistency. He has reached one Euro Tour semi-final and a couple of quarter finals so you can’t rule out a good run on home soil.
14 Joe Cullen
Took the last month off so we don’t have any recent form for Cullen. He played some really good stuff in PC 11 & 12, reaching the quarter finals of both, but that was nearly five weeks ago. He had won seven of his last ten matches.
15 Dimitri van den Bergh
Has lost five of his last ten matches and is struggling for consistency. There have been four sub 90 averages in those last ten matches and he has yet to get beyond the third round on the Euro Tour this season.
16 Ross Smith
Has won six of his last ten matches, is a major champion and made the semi-final last time out in Sindelfingen, losing to eventual winner, Rob Cross. His win rate in 2023 is 68% and he is worth considering. He was initially unseeded so he has got a nice little bonus thanks to Gerwyn Price staying away.
Notable Non-Seeded Players
No non-seeded players have made a final in 2023. The best result for a non-seed was Daryl Gurney’s semi-final spot in the Austrian Darts Open. It really is hard to get too excited about the prospects of these players who have the disadvantage of having to play an extra match compared to the seeded players.
Looking at the seeding of the players who have made the nine finals. The number 1 seed has not won a title in 2023, but been runner up three times. The number 2, 3 and 4 seeds have yet to make a final. The fifth seed has made two finals.
The sixth seed has been very successful, winning three titles and been runner up twice. The eighth seed has been almost as successful, winning three and been runner up once. The 10th and 11th seed have both won one and the highest seed to win was the 13th in Austria.
That event also saw the highest seeded runner up with the 15th seed making the final. It was also the event which saw the highest placed non seeded player.
If you’re betting as a numerologist, the 6th and 8th seeds are the one’s for you! This weekend that is Michael van Gerwen and Nathan Aspinall.
Luke Woodhouse
Worth mentioning. Woody is playing near the top of his game and enjoying his best ever season. His win rate is up to 61%, his best since getting a tour card in 2018. He is set to break his career best year in terms of prizemoney earned by some way and he will be feeling confident after reaching his first ever Players Championship final a couple of weeks ago, losing to Damon Heta.
He has won eight of his last ten matches, but it must be said that that six of those saw sub 90 averages and he only managed 77 when losing that final. Woodhouse is not without a chance of making the Matchplay, but he needs a deep run.
James Wade
Will be changing his walk on song to ‘I’m Still Standing’ by all accounts, sending a message that he is still here. He won this back in 2016 but there isn’t much to suggest that he will be repeating that feat. He has won six of his last ten matches, has a seasonal win rate of 63% and an average of 94.47. Good figures, but the competition is tough these days and not just in the latter stages.
Gian van Veen
Picked up his fourth Development Tour tile of the season three weeks ago on the back of his first Euro Tour quarter final last time out in Sindelfingen. He played great darts that weekend, averaging 100 across his four matches. He averaged 106 in his 4-6 loss to Luke Humphries.
Van Veen is the kind of player who could be that unseeded player to make a final, and maybe more. Sadly, he is becoming ‘exposed’ and the bookies are wising up to his potential, so we won’t be seeing 201.00 about him anymore. He is a best priced 126.00 this weekend. If he can get past Christian Kist in the first round, he will face the in-form Damon Heta in the second, a very tough draw for both.
The 2023 European Darts Matchplay Draw
1st Quarter
There is no easy quarter this weekend. This one has the ultra-consistent and four time 2023 finalist Luke Humphries as the top seed, joined by Ross Smith, Nathan Aspinall and Danny Noppert.
Noppert is the only one that I can cross out with any confidence. Aspinall is playing some good stuff but he isn’t a serial title winner. He is yet to win on the Euro Tour but was a runner up earlier in the season. He needs to up his game at the business end of tournaments.
Ross Smith has the capability of having a good run, as he did last time out. Smith has struggled against Humphries and is 1-7 in their last eight matches. Aspinall has a winning H2H record vs. Humphries, but not on the Euro Tour. I suspect the quarter will be Humphries vs. Aspinall. It is a hard quarter, however, so Smith isn’t ruled out.
2nd Quarter
Another tough quarter with just no real weak link. Damon Heta is the leading seed and comes here in great form. He has lost four Euro Tour semi-finals this year and a couple of quarters so he is having good runs, but he hasn’t rewarded his each way backers so far. On the back of winning the last Players Championship title, is he ready to take the next step?
If he is, he needs to get past Clayton, Cross, and Schindler as the other seeds. Schindler is the weakest contender, home crowd or not, but he has been a tough nut to crack for Heta. Heta also doesn’t find Clayton easy to beat. He is 7-6 overall but 1-3 in 2023.
Cross In Form
Rob Cross didn’t fire at the World Cup but is in good form outside of that, winning the last Euro Tour event and a recent Players Championship title. Cross is 3-1 vs. Heta and 3-0 in 2023. He is 7-3 vs. Schindler so he has positive H2H record with all three of the other seeds. He gets the vote. But…what about this quarter’s dark horse?
Gian van Veen, the brilliant Dutch youngster, is still gathering experience and that makes it hard to see him go all the way, but he can ruin a few players weekend. Heta is likely to be his second round opponent and Heta is 2-0 so far. That said, Van Veen can beat anyone, but non-seeds have not thrived in 2023.
3rd Quarter
Dirk van Duijvenbode is the top seed in the quarter but his recent form has not been what it was earlier in the season. He does look like he is getting back to full fitness but he has lost five of his last ten matches, so we are only hoping he has, but I need to see some evidence before putting down any cash on him. Dirk has very poor H2H records vs. Van den Bergh and Smith.
Dimitri van den Bergh is not at the top of his game and is passed over, despite a very good record against Dirk. Michael Smith hasn’t fired on the Euro Tour outside of his win in the German Darts Grand Prix. He is in good form and he can kick on at any time, but others make more appeal.
Josh Rock is the final seed in the quarter and while he isn’t quite in top form, like Smith he is capable of great things but he is still learning the ropes. Like Dimitri and Smith, Rock has a winning record over Dirk. Rock has won both his Euro Tour matches vs. Smith and this is a quarter that is hard to call, but Smith or Rock make the most appeal.
4th Quarter
Another mini puzzle. Dave Chisnall, twice a runner up in this event, has been very successful on the Euro Tour this year and he doesn’t top the OOM for nothing. His form had cooled before the recent break, and maybe he isn’t favourite to win the quarter.
Michael van Gerwen has been off for nearly a month so he will be fresh, or he may be rusty. Before his time out he won the Premier League final and the US Masters world series event. He has won nine of his last ten and if he is up to speed, he will be in contention for a fourth European Darts Matchplay title.
Joe Cullen is another past winner of this event (beating MVG in the final back in 2019) and is in decent form but he hasn’t played much lately, not since late May. Ryan Searle is bang out of form and passed over. It looks like 2023 Euro Tour OOM leader or MVG for me.
Ante Post Selections
While Luke Humphries has yet to win a Euro Tour event this year, he has come very close, four times. He hasn’t got an easy draw but nor is it the worst. Aspinall looks his biggest threat to reaching the semi-final but I’d take Humphries over the Asp at the business end of a tournament.
Humphries’ odds are a little shorter than in recent Euro Tour events, but he is only the 5th favourite and still his odds are in double figures. He should be shorter.
2023 European Darts Matchplay Tip: 1 point e/w Luke Humphries to win @ 13.00 with Betfred, Hills, Unibet, BET365
It took Rob Cross a long time to win his first Euro Tour event. Ironically, he won two European Championships before his first tour title, but that little monkey is off his back. He won PC11 in late May after losing two semi-finals so he should be feeling confident. He is in a tough group but has a winning H2H record over the other seeds.
2023 European Darts Matchplay Tip: 0.5 point e/w Rob Cross to win @ 15.00 generally available
Michael Smith looks to have a reasonable chance to win the third quarter but he goes off as the 8.00 second favourite and his Euro Tour form hasn’t warranted that in my book. Josh Rock is equally overrated at 11.00 and while one of those two should make the semi-final, they don’t quite make enough appeal value wise.
The bottom quarter looks to be between OOM leader Dave Chisnall and Michael van Gerwen. The fact that both have taken some time off clouds things.
Chizzy did play in PC13 and PC14 a couple of weeks ago, not with much success, while MVG has not played for a month. Chizzy’s heavy scoring has been absent for about six weeks which is a negative, while MVG was in great form before his enforced month out. Chisnall used to be one of MVG’s whipping boys but more recently it has been very close between the two. It is 1-1 in 2023.
MVG is the 4.50 favourite, Chisnall 17.00. I will go with the OOM leader but we need to hope that he has sharpened up his power scoring during the break and hope Van Gerwen is a little rusty.
2023 European Darts Matchplay Tip: 0.5 point e/w Dave Chisnall to win @ 17.00 generally available
The clash with this weekend’s Austrian GP with its double race format, means I’ll not be able to cover the daily darts updates for the 2023 European Darts Matchplay.
There is one match bet this afternoon which I will put up now, however.
Stephen Burton vs. Callan Rydz
Burton got his tour card back in January and while he hasn’t set the world on fire, he did have his best run at the last two Players Championship events a couple of weeks ago. He won five of his seven matches, hitting some big averages and some poor ones.
Callan Rydz has been suffering with mental health problems, stuck in a vicious circle of needing wins to hold his ranking, feeling the pressure, losing, getting more pressure, performing worse and so on. He has lost seven of his last ten matches and the last time he got a late call up as a reserve he averaged 75.2 in a 1-6 loss to Kim Huybrechts.
Darts can be a brutal place when you’re playing for your living but would rather be anywhere else on earth. Rydz is the better player by some margin but if he is still stuck in his vicious circle, he will find it hard to perform.
