2023 Festive E/W Lucky 15 Horse Racing Tips – DS
2023 Festive E/W Lucky 15
We had a great day at Cheltenham and Doncaster last weekend. Our 12/1 NAP Madara won easily, our 14/1 NB Moon D’Orange got the place and we also had another 12/1 winner with Glory and Honour at Donny. Twoshotsoftequila was backed off the boards from 9s but he could only manage a place. Hopefully we are hitting top form ahead of the busy Xmas period, Dave Stevos’ 2023 Festive E/W Lucky 15 tips are below.
26 December
1.35 Wetherby – Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Premier)
Sixteen horses have been entered for this valuable Premier Handicap Chase. Into Overdrive won it last year and he is back to defend his crown. He’d already had a couple of runs before winning it though and this time, he lacks a recent outing.
At bigger odds, course winner Grandads Cottage is interesting. Trained by Olly Murphy, this horse has three entries on Boxing Day. I’m hoping he runs in this seeing as he has won around here before. That Wetherby win came over 19f on soft last season and he added another victory over the same trip at Market Rasen on his last start of his campaign. That came off 127, he is 3lbs higher here.
Up In Trip
Murphy decided to try 25f with this son of Shantou on his seasonal reappearance. To my eyes, it looked like a prep run for something else. James King lost around 15 lengths at the start and that was not ideal for a usual prominent racer. He actually made up a bit of ground to half move into contention 4f out but he got very tired in the last 2f.
It could be argued that he didn’t stay at Cheltenham but I’m not sure. It seemed to me that the run was badly needed and he is certainly bred to stay 3 miles. He’s a full brother to Super Duty, beaten a head over 25f here in a G2 Novice back in 2013 on soft and another brother, Howaboutnever, placed in a handicap hurdle here on soft over 3 miles and he also won on heavy at 26f.
Olly Murphy has an outstanding record at Wetherby. 88 runners, 18 winners and 41 top 4 finishers, a frame hitting strike rate of over 67%. Until Cheltenham, this horse had form figures of 3211 on heavy/soft and he should get his favoured ground on Boxing Day. At odds of 20/1, Grandads Cottage hopefully gets us off to a flyer.
2023 Festive E/W Lucky 15 Tip: Grandads Cottage e/w @ 20/1 (3 places 1/5 odds)
2.30 Kempton – King George VI Chase (Grade 1)
Allaho has been all the rage this week after this was confirmed as his Xmas target. Willie Mullins’ 9yo is on a six timer and he made an ok return to action after almost two years off at Clonmel last month. He beat Janidil, who wouldn’t have enjoyed the heavy ground, by 9L but he enjoyed a very easy lead with zero pressure applied at any stage of the race. A glorified schooling session.
This will be a much stiffer test of his credentials. The ground will be quicker and with The Real Whacker in the field, he will face competition for the lead. With that in mind, I think Hewick could be worth taking a punt on at decent odds.
Shark Hanlon’s son of Virtual will love the forecast good to soft ground and he’ll be well suited by a strongly run affair. He has made the running in the past but he won’t mind sitting just behind the early pace, just as he did when winning big handicap chases at Sandown and Galway last year.
Right Handed
I don’t think it is a coincidence that this horse’s best form has come on right handed tracks. Yes, he won the American National going left handed but his signature wins have come at Sandown (x2) and Galway, both right handed tracks.
There are no concerns regarding the trip. Hewick has won over 29f at Sandown and Sedgefield so we know he’ll stay and he has gone well fresh in the past. Bravemansgame hasn’t looked the same horse on both starts this season, Gerri Colombe might want a stiffer stamina test, The Real Whacker ran a stinker last time and who knows what version of Shishkin will show up. So, at odds of 16/1, Hewick is the e/w selection.
2023 Festive E/W Lucky 15 Tip: Hewick e/w @ 16/1 (3 places 1/5 odds Hills)
27 December
2.50 Chepstow – Welsh Grand National (Premier)
This is a race where it often pays to be close to the pace. What I look for is a horse that likes to race prominently that stays at least three miles and at massive odds, Charlie Uberalles fits the bill. He hails from the shrewd Dianne Sayer yard and he landed a nice little pot at Perth (24f gd) off 121 on his final run of 2022.
That form is strong. He had the 139 rated Ballyandy 2.5L behind and Gevrey, who was racing off 133, was nearly 6L back in third. He has since landed the Munster National at Limerick off 138 and he is now rated 146. Charlie Uberalles got hiked 5lbs to 126 for that impressive performance and in hindsight, that looks a tad generous.
Soft Ground?
The unknown for this horse will be soft ground if the rain comes. His sole start on soft came in a P2P when third but his pedigree suggests he could relish testing conditions. His full brother, Atomic Angel, has won four handicap hurdles at up to 27f with three of those coming on bottomless ground.
This 7yo’s dam is out of a full sister to 32f soft ground chase winner The Risky Viking and his sire, Geordieland, has already produced a couple of talented soft ground performers (including Trelawne who I am a huge fan of).
Sayer gave her charge a pipe opener over hurdles at Kelso last month so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. If the rain doesn’t come, he’ll be fine on better ground and that would obviously be preferable. If it does come, we’ll have to wait and see how he goes on it but given his pedigree, it is worth chancing that he does handle it at odds of 50/1.
2023 Festive E/W Lucky 15 Tip: Charlie Uberalles e/w @ 50/1 (4 places 1/4 Odds)
3.00 Leopardstown – Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Listed)
Off 8lbs lower than when beat 3L in this race in 2021 I have to give Enjoy D’Allen one last chance. We have backed him on two of his last three starts. At Aintree in the Grand National he could never get into the race and then last time at Cheltenham, he just never seemed to be travelling.
That being said, he did stick to the task pretty well despite being off the bridle early and he finished 7th, 13L behind the very easy winner Latenightpass. He had shaped pretty well on his previous outing over the banks at Punchestown so hopefully those two spins on unorthodox tracks might just spark him back to form ahead of his return to regulation fences.
Course Form
Ciaran Murphy’s charge has run well at Leopardstown on a number of occasions in the past. As I mentioned earlier, he was third in this race in 2021 and while he only finished 10th in it last year, he was likely using the race as a stepping stone towards Aintree in April.
The 9yo son of Network clearly didn’t stay the 4 miles plus trip on Merseyside and given that he has run well on two of his three visits to this track, this does look the most obvious target for him. Those two cross country runs might have sweetened him up a bit and best of all, the handicapper dropped him to the lowest mark he has raced off since finishing second in a valuable Navan novices’ handicap chase in March 2021.
He’ll carry a nice low weight in this and I’d imagine Eoin Walsh might take off 3lbs after riding him the last twice. If Enjoy D’Allen is ever going to recapture his best form it’ll most likely be around Leopardstown so at odds of 40/1, we will follow him over the cliff one last time.
