2023 Friday Cheltenham November Meeting Tips – DS
2023 Friday Cheltenham November Meeting Preview
After the highs of last Saturday, Sunday at Naas was a reality check. Ataboycharlie wasn’t off a yard but he’s a horse we’ll be backing again this year, most likely in a handicap at the Irish Grand National meeting. Jazzy Matty was ‘backed’ but he ran as though he was well short of fitness. It can be tough at this time of year with lots of horses lacking a recent run but hopefully, we can get back amongst the winners this weekend. Check out our 2023 Friday Cheltenham November Meeting tips below.
1.10 – Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
Usually, we just focus on the live ITV races but it is hard to resist having a go at this big field handicap. The ground at Cheltenham is currently soft, good to soft in places. There’s more rain forecast this evening (1-4mm) so it could be soft all over on Friday.
A field of 20 will go to post in this 21f hurdle for conditional jockeys. It looks a wide open race and the two market leaders have both had the benefit of a recent run. Whether this track will suit Uncle Bert is debateable. His wins have come at Warwick (16f sft) and Perth (20f sft), two very different tracks to Cheltenham.
White Rhino won on a testing track at Carlisle last time. That is a right handed course but he has won going the other way so of the top two, he looks the most appealing. However, odds of 6/1 aren’t big enough for the blog, especially in a race of this nature, so we’ll look for something at a bigger price.
Ellison Back In Form
Brian Ellison returned to form with a vengeance last week. He landed the November Handicap with our NAP Onesmoothoperator and I think Son Of The Somme might be a tad overpriced for him here. This 8yo son of Yeats was pulled up on his return to action in a handicap chase at Carlisle in October but he ran much better back over hurdles last time at Ayr (24f gd/sft).
That trip probably just stretches his stamina but he was only beat 1.25L at the finish after helping to make the pace. He seemed to really respond to the application of first time blinkers and they have unsurprisingly been retained by connections.
Consistent
Apart from back to back poor runs in March/October this year, this horse has been pretty consistent. If you discount those two efforts, his form figures in handicaps for Ellison read 221223313, including a fine second to Romeo Brown in a valuable Kelso handicap hurdle in March 2022 off 110.
With Lewis Dobb taking off 3lbs he is effectively just 4lbs higher today. His last win came in a novice handicap chase off 111 last January at Sedgefield (21f sft), a testing, left handed track.
Has he got heaps in hand off his current mark? Probably not, but he’s had two runs so he’ll be fit, his trainer is flying and soft ground/21f is absolutely fine for him. Winning might be beyond him but if he reproduces what he did last time out, Son Of The Somme is capable of placing at odds of 28/1.
2023 Friday Cheltenham November Meeting Tip: Son Of The Somme e/w @ 28/1 (5 places) nb
1.45 – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Not quite as big a field for this 16f handicap chase but it looks competitive. Gold De Bois caught my eye a couple of runs back when finishing third to Tommy’s Oscar at Kelso (17f gd/sft) and Iain Jardine’s charge shaped nicely again over the same C&D last time out.
The handicapper dropped him to 123 after his seasonal return but he has left his mark alone after that last Kelso run last month. He finished 3L behind Bollingerandkrug that day and the winner has since franked the form, winning again off 6lbs higher on his next start.
Decent Run Last Year
Last year, Gold De Bois finished fourth in this race off 130. Yes, he was beaten 12L by Amarillo Sky but he went well for a long way and he is 7lbs lower today. His owner, Ray Green, is a shrewd operator and the market is usually a good indicator as to whether he fancies this horse or not.
It looks to me like this race might be his early season target and it seemed like he was coming to the boil last time at Kelso. He is 4lbs lower than his last winning mark and the booking of Harry Cobden catches the eye. Cobden has a 100% record when riding for Jardine, winning on both of his previous rides for him.
Slightly better ground would be ideal but he has won and placed on soft in the past so he does handle these conditions. If he can reproduce what he did here last year off his current mark, it should be good enough to place, at least. I think it is worth taking a chance on him at 22/1, hopefully the money comes for him tomorrow.
2023 Friday Cheltenham November Meeting Tip: Gold De Bois e/w @ 22/1 (4 places) NAP
2.20 – Arkle Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Just the four run here and the biggest priced horse is 5/1. An easy one to give a wide berth to. No bet.
2023 Friday Cheltenham November Meeting Tip: No Bet
2.55 – X Country Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Back On The Lash is bidding to complete a hat-trick of successive wins in this race. He’s 3lbs lower than he was for his 2021 win, he’s 2lbs lower than he was last year but this time, he has to contend with softer ground. He did win on soft over hurdles here in 2020 but the vast majority of his best form has come on ground with good in the description.
Thanks to the presence of the 160 rated Galvin, quite a few of these are massively wrong at the weights. Volcano, for example, is rated 118 over fences but he has to run off 134. Didero Vallis is 19lbs wrong and Debeden Bank is a massive 45lbs out of the weights.
To be honest, I can’t make a case for anything at a big price in this. Delta Work is fit after a run at Punchestown and with Keith Donoghue on board, he’ll probably take some stopping. Galvin chased him home at the Festival in March and a similar result would come as no surprise. We’ll have better betting opportunities in the coming days so it is probably best to sit this one out. No bet.
2023 Friday Cheltenham November Meeting Tip: No Bet
3.30 – Trustatrader Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
This is a cracker of a race. Eight will go to post and Captain Teague, third in last year’s Champion Bumper for Paul Nicholls, is odds on. He scored in the Grade 2 Persian War at Chepstow (19f gd/sft) on his seasonal bow.
The margin of victory was 9.5l but his jumping wasn’t perfect. He was big over quite a few of them and he made an error at the sixth and in this better race, he may not get away with a similar round of jumping.
Big Danger
Peter Fahey sends The Big Doyen across the pond and he’s been backed into 6s from 8s already. He has been transformed by stepping up in trip over timber and he won a good race at this trip at the Galway Festival (20.5f gd).
Last time he found just the well regarded High Class too good in a Listed race at Limerick (21f hvy), an excellent run considering he would have hated the heavy ground. He probably would prefer the ground to be a bit better today but he handles soft so once it doesn’t deteriorate further, he should be fine.
The form of his Galway win is arguably stronger than Captain Teague’s Persian War victory and if he’s ok on the ground, he is more than capable of putting it right up to the fav. It will come as no surprise to me if he beats him with the in form Keith Donoghue doing the steering.
Ground Concerns
Another Irish challenger is Kinbara for John McConnell. He won a Mickey Mouse race at Cartmel on his return, his second win from two runs over timber. His best bumper form came on good ground and while it was heavy last time out, he’d probably prefer a sounder surface than he’ll encounter here.
One horse who should relish the soft ground is Galway winner, Sequestered. Trained by PJ Gilligan, the form of his soft ground Novice win at Ballybrit was franked by the runner up, Stuzzikini. He came out and won a handicap by 30 lengths off 125 on his next start and the third, Walhaan, won on the flat at Dundalk on his next outing.
His jumping wasn’t great at Galway so he has room for improvement in that department. On his form behind High Class Hero at Listowel he probably has a few pounds to find with The Big Doyen too but this soft ground might suit him better than that rival.
He gets 3lbs from Peter Fahey’s charge and he also gets 5lbs from Captain Teague. On that Galway form, that could be enough to see him reach the frame so at odds of 12/1, he is the e/w play. I’d love to see The Big Doyen win for the Moneyforjam Syndicate and if he does do the business, hopefully Sequestered can pick up some place money behind him.
