2023 German Darts Championship Betting Preview – JP
2023 German Darts Championship Preview
This weekend James Punt will be focusing on the 2023 German Darts Championship. We had a decent couple of days at the World Grand Prix last week, fingers crossed for more profit in the coming days.
2023 German Darts Championship
This will be the final Euro Tour event of 2023 and the eleventh German Darts Championship. Halle 39, Hildesheim has been the venue for the last nine.
There have been eight different winners of the German Darts Championship and four of them are in the field this weekend. They are Dave Chisnall, Michael van Gerwen (x3), Peter Wright and Daryl Gurney.
The event has seen some surprise finalists, such as Devon Petersen who won in 2020 and landed us a nice 67.00 winner. Ricky Evans made his only Euro Tour final here in 2019, losing to Daryl Gurney who won his only Euro Tour title here. James Wilson made his only Euro Tour final here in 2018, Alan Norris won in 2016 and Justin Pipe was a finalist in 2014, losing to Gary Anderson.
Chizzy Tops OOM
Dave Chisnall tops the OOM having won three titles in 2023 and been runner up once. World Grand Prix winner, Luke Humphries, is second on the OOM having won one and been runner up five times.
These two have dominated the Euro Tour in 2023 and met in three finals. Being on different sides of the draw means they could make it four come Sunday night. That is if all the seeded players turn up.
Those that have safely qualified may decide to take the weekend off, in which case we have the likes of Ross Smith, Mike de Decker and Steve Beaton as the three alternates, ready to take any spare places. Ross Smith is safely through but Beaton would love to get a crack at a first round and De Decker just needs a couple of wins to take his place.
Price Out
We have got the full complement of big guns entered and hopefully they all turn up for the last event of the Euro Tour season. I was hopeful, but Gerwyn Price withdrew on Thursday, necessitating a bit of a re-write. Git.
As a result of Price’s withdrawal Ross Smith is elevated to sixteenth seed, and an additional local qualifier will get a first round berth.
There are a number of players in the field who need to have a good weekend to make the European Championship finals. Chris Dobey, fresh from a decent run in the Grand Prix, needs to win one match to take Steve Beaton’s place as the final qualifier, and then hope not to get leapfrogged by others going for a late qualification.
Dylan Slevin needs to reach the quarter finals, Alan Soutar the semi-finals. Joyce, Mansell and Lee Evans need minimum semi-finals. Players not here and sweating at home are Beaton and Dolan, while Razma and Clemens may need a to win a match to confirm their places.
2023 German Darts Championship: The Seeds
1 Dave Chisnall
It was another disappointing Grand Prix for Chizzy. I expected more, he expected more, but it was a first round exit and another TV major went abegging. Chisnall is the winning most player title wise on this year’s Euro Tour and a past winner here, albeit back in 2013, when he beat Peter Wright in the final.
He has won eight of his last ten matches having won PC23 a few days before the start of the Grand Prix. He didn’t do much wrong, averaging an adjusted 102, when losing 4-6 to the in-form Luke Woodhouse. Chisnall had won ET12 before that and you can’t really fault his form.
2 Damon Heta
The number two seed but yet to reach a final in 2023. His seasonal average has dropped by 3.4 points in 2023 and he has lost four of his last ten matches. He has had some good runs, however, losing three quarter finals and four semi-finals. Each way Heta backers must be banging their heads against the wall in frustration.
3 Luke Humphries
Will be on cloud nine after winning his first major on Sunday night. Mental let down could be a big problem here and I would not be surprised to see him have the weekend off. If he does turn up it could be difficult for him to be fully dialled in after reaching the peak last weekend. His seasonal win rate is 75%, the best in the field, and he has won eight of his last ten matches.
4 Dirk van Duijvenbode
Still looking for that elusive first win on stage. A two time runner up on the 2023 Euro Tour and he looks increasingly frustrated. He has lost two finals, two semi-finals and two quarter finals.
His recent form sees six wins from his last ten and he went out in the first round of the Grand Prix, losing to Brendan Dolan, which did nothing to improve his mood.
5 Josh Rock
Inevitably Rock was going to hit a few bumps on the road and he has hit a few in recent weeks. He has only won one of his last seven matches and hard to fancy as a result.
6 Rob Cross
Finally picked up his first Euro Tour title at the European Darts Grand Prix in late May. However, since winning it, he has won just the one Euro Tour match since and his recent form sees six defeats in his last ten matches. He is just a bit off at the moment.
7 Jonny Clayton
Winner of the Austrian Darts Open back in April, he is another player who hasn’t really thrived in 2023. He did reach the Matchplay final in July but his father’s death knocked him after that.
His more recent form has been promising, reaching the quarter final of PC23 and the semi-final of PC24, but he got dumped out of the Grand Prix by Ross Smith in the first round. He is still on the radar, however.
8 Michael van Gerwen
It was another major let down for Mighty Mike last week, losing his second round match to Chris Dobey at the Grand Prix. It is just getting harder, for him, or anyone else to dominate anymore.
He is in decent form, winning seven of his last ten matches but it is his lack of tournament wins that will be frustrating him. His seasonal win rate is down to 70.45%, his lowest since 2011. He is a three time winner of this event and in this venue, so he has plenty of good memories to draw on.
9 Joe Cullen
A good run to the semi-final of last week’s Grand Prix has elevated Cullen to number 10 in the world rankings. He played three very good matches and a stinker. By his own admission, that is the difference between him and the top players, he has too many stinkers.
His season has been very consistent, but frustrating in equal measure. Across all his Pro Tour, Euro Tour and major events, he has lost five quarter finals and seven semi-finals. Is he due one, or has he got a mental block?
10 Peter Wright
With a seasonal win rate of just 51% and dropping 3.2 points on his seasonal average, 2023 has been poor for Snakebite. There’s been some positive signs more recently.
His last title win was back in May, with a surprise win at the Czech Darts Masters, but more recently he reached a Players Championship semi-final last month, the World Series finals semi-final, and the Grand Prix quarter final last week. It is far from peak Snakey, but he is finally pointing in the right direction.
Ready to win again? Maybe not. He has won six of his last ten and the consistency is still lacking, but he didn’t look likely to win in Prague and did just that.
11 Michael Smith
Smith’s last title was a Players Championship in June and his last Euro Tour title was in April. He has been knocking on the door again and reached the semi-final in last week’s Grand Prix, a tournament were he had never gone beyond the second round before.
Bully Boy has won seven of his last ten matches and is still a bit away from his best, but he is getting closer as the big events draw near. He is in a quarter that he can win this weekend and he is on the short list.
12 Danny Noppert
A player who has yet to win a Euro Tour title but one who is in very good form. He has won eight of his last ten matches having won PC22 a couple of weeks ago.
He lost to Gerwyn Price in the first round of the Grand Prix last week, but he does have problems with Price. The Welshman’s absence has to be a positive for the Dutchman.
Noppert has lost one Euro Tour semi-final in 2023 and four quarter finals. Another good run is more than possible, but will he come up short again, or will that recent Players Championship title kick start his A game?
13 Martin Schindler
Still hunting for his first title. Schindler reached the quarter final of the Grand Prix last week, taking his season prizemoney won to £185k, nearly twice as much as his previous best ever year. He has to be winning something soon, surely?
To do so, he needs to start stringing more wins together. It is no good winning two, or maybe three, then losing one, and that is what he does. His seasonal win rate is just 58% and perhaps he has been given a bit too much of a leg up with so many Euro Tours played in Germany.
A bit like Clemens, if he isn’t seeded and doesn’t qualify, he gets in as a top German seed anyway and trousers a decent cheque. He has to do better.
14 Nathan Aspinall
Has lost his form in very recent matches, losing six of his last ten and his last four in a row. Aspinall is another player still looking for his first Euro Tour title. He was runner up in the German Darts Grand Prix in April but has lost four Euro Tour quarter finals in 2023.
15 Ryan Searle
Reached the semi-final of ET1 and played very well, just losing out to Luke Humphries 6-7. Since then he has played fifteen Euro Tour matches and lost nine. He has never realised his potential in Europe for whatever reason.
His recent form is OK, winning six of his last ten, but he hasn’t strung a good run together for a couple of months.
16 Ross Smith
Has lost five of his last ten matches and three of his last four. He reached a couple of Players Championship quarter finals last month and a Euro Tour semi-final in May, but he just hasn’t got it all together very often.
He had failed to qualify for this event but got in as first reserve. After Price’s withdrawal he got made a seed. Buy a few lottery tickets with your guaranteed £2k young man.
Notable Unseeded Players
Chris Dobey
Currently 33rd on the European Championship OOM and he needs a win, maybe two. After that he can free roll. He is in good form, winning seven of his last ten matches and he has reached 18th in the World Rankings and close enough for a semi-final here to put him in the frame for a top 16 spot.
That is good motivation in terms of seeding for the big money events coming up. He hasn’t played much on the Euro Tour this year and only won six matches.
James Wade
Precariously sitting in sixteenth place in the world rankings. He has only gone beyond the second round once on the Euro Tour in 2023, reaching the semi-final of the European Darts Matchplay. He is OK for the European Championship, but under some pressure to keep his longstanding top 16 ranking.
Wade is playing OK, winning six of his last ten, but he is finding winning tough work.
Martin Lukeman
With a win rate of just 50%, Smash is finding things more difficult this season. He had a few good runs on the Euro Tour last season, including a final, but not much has gone right in 2023.
Lukeman did show some really good form in the three Players Championship events a couple of weeks ago, hitting four ton plus averages and only just losing out to Gary Anderson, the eventual winner, in the quarter final of PC24. He could be worth following in the early rounds.
Gian van Veen
Just missed out on qualifying for the Grand Prix but he is well in the European championships having reached two quarter finals and won nine of his fourteen Euro Tour matches in 2023.
He was putting himself under a lot of pressure trying to get into the Grand Prix and his performances suffered as a result. Hopefully he can now just get his head down and play like he has done for most of the season, which is brilliantly.
New Sponsors
He has lost five of his last ten matches, but I expect him to play better this weekend. He is signing up new sponsors and just this week joined the Toto Darts Kings, an all Dutch ‘Team’ made up of Van Gerwen, Van Duijvenbode, Danny Noppert, Van der Voort and Van Barneveld.
The team aims to collect performance data from the darts players to improve their decisions during matches. It also focuses on the mental aspect of the sport and supports players to improve in all areas. For that reason, it has a nutritional coach, biohacker, chiropractor and osteopath in its ranks.
Stephen Bunting
Has been playing his best stuff for some time since switching to an 18 gram dart. Reached the final of ET11 last month and followed that up with a Players Championship semi-final two weeks ago. Expect another good run, but will he still fold at the business end?
Ryan Joyce
Has hit one of his patches of good form, winning eight of his last ten. Always a very good player on the outer ring, when his scoring perks up, he is dangerous.
He reached the semi-final of PC19 at the start of September and was runner up in PC24 two weeks ago. He took a few notable scalps that week, including Joe Cullen, Michael Smith, MVG and Jonny Clayton. One to keep on your side this weekend.
Madars Razma
World ranking is now 32nd and he is very much on the cusp of dropping out at just the wrong time. He should be OK to make the European Championships, but he would like a couple of wins to just make sure. His recent form has been pretty dire, losing seven of his last ten matches.
The 2023 German Darts Championship Draw
Quarter 1
Chisnall, MVG, Cullen and Ross Smith are the seeds and the only unseeded player who looks like posing any real threat is former champion, Daryl Gurney.
Chisnall has nip and tuck H2H records vs. Ross Smith and Gurney, so his third round looks tricky. He should have no problem winning his first round vs. Clemens or Jensen. He has losing H2H records against MVG and Cullen, but he been ahead of both in recent matches.
It isn’t a very clear cut quarter, but Chizzy has a decent chance if he has put the disappointment of his first round exit at the Grand Prix behind him. Last year he was in a similar position. He won ET12, lost his first round match at the Grand Prix and then lost his first round in ET13, but, he did average over the ton.
Chisnall or MVG? Chizzy gets my vote. He isn’t the number 1 seed by accident.
Quarter 2
This looks to be between Dirk van Duijvenbode, Danny Noppert and Stephen Bunting. Josh Rock is out of form and Schindler will likely hit The Wall at some point.
Dirk’s head goes to mush at the business end and he is overrated as a result. Noppert is in very good form but his record of losing quarter finals is a worry. He did win on the Pro Tour recently so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.
Stepehen Bunting is playing well enough to have a deep run, but he may have to get past Noppert to do so and he is 2-4 vs. Noppy.
Quarter 3
Damon Heta invariably has a good run but comes up just short far too often. Peter Wright is threatening to click back into place but everyone has got used to beating him now.
Chris Dobey needs to win his first round match or he is out of the finals. I fancy he does and he could have a good run, but he is in line to face Jonny Clayton and Clayton has had his number, winning their last five matches.
Clayton was one of my main fancies for the Grand Prix, but he went out in the first round. I like his draw here and can see a path to the semi-finals.
Quarter 4
The quarter of death. Luke Humphries is the top seed but looks like facing a potential banana skin in the shape of Ryan Joyce in the second round. That would be a tough match despite winning his last three vs. Joyce.
Aspinall is not in good form, ditto Rob Cross. Michael Smith looks like he is coming to the boil and reaching the semi-final last week was a good result, bearing in mind his previous poor Grand Prix record.
Gian van Veen is one of the unseeded players and if he can get past Wilson and then Cross, he should face the World Champion, whom he beat 6-3 last month. That could be the decisive match, but Humphries, of course, could steam through the lot.
2023 German Darts Championship: Ante Post Selections
We drew a blank in the last two Euro Tour selections but remain +25.00 points up on the outright picks. Hopefully we can bow out with a bit more in in the profit column.
