2023 Gold Cup Stats That Matter by Dave Stevos
2023 GOLD CUP STATS THAT MATTER – ds
The stats are back! Last year, they more or less went out the window with A Plus Tard bouncing back from a defeat on his prep run to win easily. It was recent form that saw him discounted last season and it was the same stat that ruled out Minella Indo the year before. We are going to tweak our parameters for this year’s race, hopefully the 2023 Gold Cup Stats That Matter will help us find the winner.
AGE
This is always the first stat we use to narrow the field in all Cheltenham races. Since the turn of the century, the only 6yo to win was Long Run in 2011. The last 10yo to win was Cool Dawn in 1998 so the winner is by far most likely to be aged 7yo, 8yo or 9yo. Since 2000 there has been six 7yo winners, ten 8yo winners and five 9yo winners. So, we’ll focus on horses in the 7yo to 9yo bracket.
Usually, a heap of horses falter at this stage. However, this year the vast majority fit the correct age profile. The only three to be cut are the 12yo Coole Cody, the 11yo Frodon and the 10yo Minella Indo. The latter is the shortest priced of the trio at 20/1 but unfortunately, the former Gold Cup hero has got to go.
CUT: Coole Cody; Frodon; Minella Indo.
PREVIOUS CHELTENHAM FORM
Cheltenham is a track that not every horse handles. You’ve got to be able to jump well, travel well and stay well up the hill and not many are cut out for the test. Clan Des Obeaux is a good example, he was lethal on more conventional tracks like Kempton and Aintree but he was 0/6 when running at Prestbury Park.
Having previous course form is a huge positive and for this piece, we’ll discount any horse that has never run here or also that failed to place at the track before. By far the highest profile casualty here is the King George winner Bravemansgame. His sole run at this track saw him beaten 12L by Bob Olinger and he swerved the meeting last year. Another Clan Des Obeaux? Possibly. Irish Gold Cup winner Conflated also gets the chop. He fell on his sole Cheltenham start last year.
Capodanno was 4th on his only previous Cheltenham outing so he is gone, as is Royal Pagaille (0/2 here). US Grand National winner Hewick has yet to race here so he’s gone and even though Noble Yeats did finish 3rd here last time, only 6 horses ran so with e/w rules applied, it’s bye bye to him too. It is the end of the road for our ante-post fancy Franco De Port too, he’s run two stinkers over shorter in two previous visits.
CUT: Bravemansgame; Capodanno; Royal Pagaille; Hewick; Noble Yeats; Franco De Port; Angels Breath; Conflated.
Graded form
One stat that cannot be ignored is Grade 1 winning form. Every single winner since Cool Dawn in 1998 had won at least one Grade 1 NH race. This stat enables us to get rid of a few outsiders. GA Law is unlikely to pitch up here but if he does, the stats are against him. The Big Breakaway is another one at triple figure odds that fails to progress, as is his stablemate Eldorado Allen.
The Real Whacker loves Cheltenham but his peak form is at Grade 2 level. The improving Sounds Russian has never won out of handicap company so he’s gone too. The shortest priced one to be counted out here is Stattler. He landed the 30f Novice here last season but that is only a Grade 2.
CUT: GA Law; The Big Breakaway; The Real Whacker; Eldorado Allen; Stattler; Sounds Russian.
Stamina
I’ve always said that a turn of foot is required to be a Gold Cup winner but you need plenty of stamina too. That famous hill has found many a horse out in the past and the stats suggest that having wining form over 24f+ is a big advantage. Since 2011, eleven of the twelve winners had won at least once at 24f or longer, and eight of them had won twice.
So, we are now going to remove horses that haven’t won at least two races at three miles plus. Envoi Allen is only 1/3 over the distance so he’s got to go, as does Shishkin. Fury Road has form figures of 331PP4332 at 24f or further so that’s the end of him. That leaves us with six main contenders, but who is going to win?
CUT: Envoi Allen; Shishkin; Fury Road.
2023 GOLD CUP stats that matter: THE VERDICT
Monkfish has made it this far but he is far more likely to pitch up in the Stayers. It would be some ask if he did run given how long he’s been off the track. Galvin went off at odds of 10/3 for last year’s renewal after his win over Xmas at Leopardstown. He came home 4th but he was 17L behind the winner. However, he is currently 100/1 in a place for this and as short as 6/1 for the Cross Country so he is another unlikely runner.
Galopin The Fav
Willie Mullins will have been delighted with Galopin Des Champs at Leopardstown. I have doubts about him staying 26f at this track, mostly because of his pedigree. However, he did impress with how he won on Saturday. Townend got him settled and switched off nicely and if he can do that in the big one, it’ll greatly enhance his mount’s chance of getting home up the hill. He drifted slightly for this race after Leopardstown but to my eye, he was good and he’s going to be a big danger here.
Ahoy Senor beat Protektorat here last time out but I’d be shocked if he did it again. Lucinda Russell’s stable star is a gutsy, brave horse but the Skelton horse was clearly unfit and they weren’t hard on him at all. Even though he was badly in need of the run (and was handled tenderly) he was only 5.25L behind the Scottish horse at the finish. I expect to see a much sharper and fitter (and more vigorously ridden) Protektorat come Cheltenham Gold Cup Day.
Pulled Up
A Plus Tard absolutely hacked up in this last year. It was a seriously impressive performance but it is hard to know what to expect this time. He came into the 2022 race on the back of two solid runs at Haydock and Leopardstown but this time, he pulled up on his sole start of the campaign. Henry De Bromhead’s charge hasn’t been sighted since and while I don’t doubt De Bromhead’s ability to get his horse ready after 118 days off, eleven of the last dozen Cheltenham Gold Cup winners had run within the previous 80 days.
To be honest, I think Protektorat is the one to be on at 16/1. Yes, he was beat by Ahoy Senor last time but I’m convinced he’s a much better horse than that. His win at Haydock was hugely impressive visually and if he turns up here in that form, I can see him winning this. Galopin Des Champs is the biggest threat by far, and it could turn out to be a battle between those two up the hill. My money is going to be on the Skelton horse to come out on top.
2023 GOLD CUP stats PREDICTION
- Protektorat @ 16/1
- Galopin Des Champs @ 7/4
- Ahoy Senor @ 12/1
- A Plus Tard @ 8/1
