2023 Grand National Outsiders Preview – DS
2023 Grand National Outsiders
We managed to nick a nice place with our NB Marvelosa at Leopardstown on Sunday. Two of our selections were non-runners, Clever And Cool blew the start so it was a relief to see Richard O’Brien’s charge run on late for e/w money at 14/1. Aidan O’Brien took both Guineas Trials but Matilda Picotte emerged with real credit from the 1000 trial. I’d imagine she’ll head to Newmarket now and on better ground, she may well be hard to peg back. However, we are going to focus on finding a couple of lively 2023 Grand National outsiders today, hopefully we can nick some place money.
Weather Watch
If it has been anywhere near as wet on Merseyside as it has been in Ireland, the ground is going to have plenty of moisture in it. There is rain forecast for tomorrow and Thursday but after that, the outlook is mostly dry. However, you cannot trust weather forecasts beyond a few days at the most so the plan is to back two 2023 Grand National outsiders, one that will enjoy soft ground and one that would like to see good in the description.
Before we look at the outsiders, I think Any Second Now is overpriced at 16/1. His course form is top drawer and he impressed me massively when I saw him win at Navan. After a 20f slog on heavy ground he wouldn’t even have blown out a candle and the only way you’d know he had run a race was a small bit of sweat under his saddle. All ground comes alike to him and while the handicapper hasn’t taken any chances, he looks sure to run a massive race.
Enjoy D’Allen
There was a lot of hype around Ciaran Murphy’s horse coming into last year’s race. After a superb effort when staying on for 3rd in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, JP McManus got the chequebook out. Enjoy D’Allen was sent off at just 20/1 at Aintree but he unshipped Conor Orr after the first obstacle. Connections then decided to roll the dice nine days later at Fairyhouse where a couple of bad mistakes cost him any chance of victory.
In that race he was never really comfortable from the outset. A mistake at the 2nd put him on the back foot and though he tried, his jumping just wasn’t slick enough to get him back into it. Clearly, his Aintree experience dented his confidence and I’d imagine that Murphy has being trying to restore that confidence this season.
Hurdles
His first two outings this term came in handicap hurdles over inadequate trips at Navan. He finished well beaten in both, but he jumped a lot better, especially in the second race. Murphy then went back to Leopardstown to run in the Paddy Power again. This time Keith Donoghue rode and he had him in a good position from the outset. When he jumped into the lead at the third last it looked like a huge run was on the cards but he got badly outpaced turning for home and ended up finishing 10th, 14L behind the winner. He jumped nicely throughout, ran through the line pretty well and it was a very encouraging effort.
Murphy decided to give him a final prep run in a G3 Chase at Fairyhouse. There wasn’t a whole lot of positives to take from that effort but there is no way he was there to do his best. On the evidence of his two Irish National efforts, this horse will surely be suited by going up to a marathon trip and while he’s effective on decent ground, his two career wins have come on soft/heavy. If he can negotiate the first couple of fences at Aintree and he gets into a decent rhythm, Enjoy D’Allen could surprise a few with a big run at odds of 80/1.
2023 Grand National Outsiders Tip: Enjoy D’Allen e/w @ 80/1 (5 places) NRNB
Minella Trump
It is fifty years since Red Rum won his first ever Grand National for Ginger McCain. His son Donald fires one bullet this year and if the ground comes up good to soft or better, Minella Trump has the form in the book to run a massive race. This 9yo son of Shantou has a superb strike rate over fences. He has won eight of the twelve chases he has contested and he’s only finished out of the first three once.
Now, it has to be said that most of his winning has been done in small fields. However, while the fields may have been small the level of opposition has been pretty strong and he looks potentially well handicapped on a couple of pieces of form. His first couple of runs over fences were pretty moderate back in the Winter of 2020 but he was a different horse when tackling chases again on summer ground.
Six In A Row
On his first chase run of 2021 he hacked up at Perth, beating Eskandash by 7L in a match. That was ordinary form but on his next run, over 24f at Cartmel, he beat Hewick by 0.5L. He was racing off 127 and with Shane Fenelon’s claim, Hewick was effectively off 130. He is now rated 170 and if he was running here, Minella Trump would be getting 23lbs from him rather than 3lbs.
On his next start, over 20f at Perth, he gave 2lbs and a 7 length beating to Corach Rambler. He only has to give him a pound in this race yet he is over 10x the price of that rival. After that victory Minella Trump reeled off another three wins at Sedgefield, Sandown and Catterick before his winning spree was brought to a halt by Scene Not Herd at Ludlow off a mark of 140. McCain gave him a nice break after that spell of seven runs in five months and he returned in April 2022 with two 24f wins at Perth off 140 and 145.
Quiet Run
After a year off following those two wins, he had a quiet prep run for the Aintree National at Bangor over hurdles in March. That should have him spot on fitness wise. He’s a prominent racer, which is a positive in the Grand National, and he is unbeaten over 24f, the furthest trip he has tackled to date (form figures 111). There could be more to come over this longer distance and if the ground is good to soft or quicker, Minella Trump could outrun his odds of 66/1.
