2023 Grand Slam of Darts Preview

The 2023 Grand Slam of Darts will be the seventeenth renewal. It used to be the event where the top PDC pros played the top BDO players.

However, with the demise of the BDO, we now have entries from the likes of the Women’s series OOM, Junior World Championships, Challenge tour and Development tour winners, international qualifiers, a Pro Tour qualifying event as well as the winners and runners up of the big titles on the PDC calendar.

It is a very mixed field, missing some of the top pros while including a few no hopers. However, the format of the tournament does give the lesser lights a chance to cause a shock in the group phase.

The group matches are played in a best of nine leg format. That tends to increase the chance of a surprise result.

The group format does mean that a player can lose a match but still go on to win the title. It is not a format I like, at least not until the group stage is over and the tournament proper starts.

32 Players

There are a total of 32 players who are split into four pools of eight. Pool A are the top 8 ranked and seeded qualifiers, Pool B and C sixteen PDC tournament winners, runners up and tour card qualifiers.

Pool D is made up of the international qualifiers, women qualifiers and whoever else is left. It is all a bit of a dog’s dinner to be honest.

Players are drawn from the four pools to form eight groups of four who play a round robin format to decide the top two players from each group who then go into the knockout phase.

The last ten years have produced just five different winners. Michael van Gerwen (x3), Gerwyn Price (x3), Phil Taylor (x2) Jose de Sousa and defending champion, Michael Smith. Peter Wright is a three time runner up.

The strategy for this year is to minimise betting on group stage matches, unless something really stands out, but to look for the best value winners of each group and those that may go all the way to the final.

Group A

Michael Smith

The number 1 seed and defending champion. This is the tournament where he finally kicked down the major title door and he followed it up with the World Championship.

He came into last year’s event on the back of being runner up in the European Championship. This season he arrives with a record of some decent runs in tournaments but his last final of any description was winning PC13 in June.

In July he signed up with a new darts manufacturer after using Unicorn darts for 10 years. Since then, he has reached plenty of quarter finals and semi-finals, but no finals. It is fair to say that while his transition to new darts has not been a disaster, it hasn’t been an improvement, outside of his bank balance.

Smith is in decent form, winning six of his last ten matches. His tournament record is good, reaching three quarter finals, two semi-finals and finally the win last year. He has only gone out in the group stage once, on debut in 2013. He was won three from three matches in seven of his nine groups. Strong favourite to win the group once more. Group win ratio 0.78.

James Wade

Returned to form when reaching the final of the European Championship, losing 6-11 to Peter Wright. Echoes of Smith in 2022? There was no real sign of that coming, but he is a stubborn character and he did enough to regain his top 16 ranking having briefly lost it.

He was a runner up in 2010, 2016, behind closed doors in 2020 and was a semi-finalist on his last appearance in 2021.

Wade is in decent form, winning seven of his last ten, and while his averages are inconsistent, he is never one of the players that puts in a lot of ton plus averages, he just gets the job done with the last dart. Group win rate ratio 0.47.

Krzysztof Ratajski

Continues to struggle in the TV events. He has gone out early in all of the TV events in 2023. His record in this event is not good, failing to get out of the group stage in his last two appearances and only on debut did he go out in the second round.

His recent form is OK with five wins from ten. He hit four ton plus averages in those last ten and all averages were above 94 in nine. His scoring is fine, he just finds winning on TV very tough.

Nathan Girvan

Making his debut and qualified as runner up in the 2022 World Youth Championship. He has nothing to lose, but probably will. He plays on the development tour and his seasonal average is 84.8.

The Verdict

It looks likely that Smith and Wade will be the qualifiers. Wade has the better H2H record with 19-7, but it is 3-2 to Smith in their last five.

Group B

Jonny Clayton

Has won five of his last ten matches and there is too much inconsistency in his game to think he is a likely tournament contender. He was a quarter finalist in 2021 (The Year of the Ferret) and 2018. I suspect he would be pleased to get that far in 2023. Group win rate ratio 0.60.

Chris Dobey

Hollywood is consistency on a stick of late. He has won six of his last ten and he has only had one sub 90 average in this last 28 matches, and that was after he had been away watching his beloved Newcastle Utd beat Man United the night before. He may have been a little groggy after a late night?

Dobey has reached four quarter finals in the last two months. Two in majors, the World Grand Prix and European Championships, and two Players Championships. Consistency and groups go well together. His TV form in 2023 is very good, reaching four quarter finals and winning the Masters.

Josh Rock

Made a name for himself here last year, hitting a nine darter and giving MVG a huge fright, but going down 8-10 in the second round. Not a bad debut.

His form of late has been mixed. He has won six of his last ten matches and most of them saw good, or very good, performances but there was a 78 average in a 4-6 loss to Darius Labanauskas and one other sub 90.

He is playing better than he was a month or so ago. What is a worry is that he has gone out in the first round of the last three majors.

Berry van Peer

Is one of the more dangerous players to be pulled out of Pool D. He may not be a tour card holder but he is reasonably well experienced and played in this event back in 2016, reaching the knockout phase, despite suffering from dartitis.

His recent form is not good, losing six of his last ten matches, including both when he got a call up for the last two Players Championship events last week. His A game is very good, but his seasonal average is 89.75 and that is a fair reflection of his current form.

The Verdict

While Van Peer could cause a surprise in a group match, he looks up against it here and this looks to be between the three PDC stars.

Chris Dobey has been on my shortlist for a lot of events recently. His consistency is admirable and he is playing with more confidence, at least in the earlier stages of tournaments.

Jonny Clayton has looked well short of his best for a while now. Josh Rock had been struggling for form but seems to be getting back to something like his best now.

Clayton has beaten Dobey in their last five matches and is 4-0 in 2023. He is also 4-2 up on Rock and 2-1 in 2023. Rock has won his only match with Dobey, 6-2 on the Euro Tour back in May.

This is a tough one. I like the chances of Dobey, despite his poor H2H records against Clayton and Rock. Unless Clayton can find something near his A game, it could be Rock joining Dobey, but this will be a real dogfight of a group.

Group C

Luke Humphries

Cool Hand Luke is the seeded player and is amongst the favourites for the tournament, never mind the group. His win rate in 2023 is 75% and his consistency is excellent, rarely straying far from his seasonal average of 98.

He has won seven of his last ten matches and reached the semi-final here last year. Luke looks very likely to be one of the qualifiers.

Dirk van Duijvenbode

Has lost his great early season form. He has lost five of his last ten matches and his last four in a row. The last time we saw him he was suffering with a painful shoulder. He is having treatment and is said to be on the mend, but he is a very injury prone player.

His tournament record is limited with just two appearances and his best result was a second round exit. Hard to fancy. Group win rate ratio 0.33.

Gary Anderson

Says this is the one major he really wants to win. It is his favourite one but he has never gone all the way. He has made two finals and four more semi-finals and never gone out at the group stage.

His recent form sees six wins from his last ten matches and his 2023 form is excellent. Anderson’s win rate is up to 71% & his seasonal average is 98.81. The only blot on his copybook is that his form in the majors has been poor ever since he lost at the World Championship in 2022.

He went into the World Grand Prix in absolute top form but went out in the second round, losing 2-3 to Andrew Gilding and averaging just 89.75. He won Players Championships either side of that flop and it begs the question as to whether his is putting too much pressure on himself in the majors? Group win rate ratio 0.53.

Steve Lennon

Came through the tour card holder qualifying tournament. He has not had a good season for a while so just qualifying will be a boost to his confidence. Now ranked just 62nd in the PDC OOM, he needs some ranking money to keep his card. Even finishing third in the group gives him an additional £3k and that would be gold dust for him.

Lennon is playing better than he has a for a few years, but a win rate of just 52% isn’t going to get him very far. His recent form sees six wins from his last ten matches and while his averages are not in the same postcode as Anderson or Humphries, he has been quite consistent.

The very short format in these group stage matches will play to his strengths, or rather, away from his weakness. He has had a habit of making good starts in matches, only to get reeled in. A quick start in a first to five really puts pressure on your opponent, and he is worth considering backing against his illustrious opponents, at least on the handicaps.

The Verdict

It looks very likely that Humphries and Anderson will progress.

Group D

Gerwyn Price

A tournament specialist, winning three of the last five Grand Slams. His recent record in the majors is disappointing for a player of his standing, but he has to be on the shortlist in Wolverhampton.

His recent form is excellent, winning nine of his last ten matches which included winning PC29 last week. His last ranking major title was here in 2021, although he won the world series finals in 2022. Group win rate ratio 0.71.

Ryan Searle

Lacks the required pedigree in TV events to be considered as a potential winner. His most recent form will give him some confidence that he can have a decent run, winning eight of his last ten matches.

On TV, however, he has lost six of his last ten and he lost two of his three matches here last year, despite ton plus averages in both. That was his third group stage exit from three appearances.

Gian van Veen

Continues to grow as a player. He will be going full time as a professional player in 2024, giving up the day job at Schiphol airport, so expect his game to really take off next season.

His seasonal win rate is 76% but he still plays on the Development Tour which flatters that a bit. He is another player in this group who is in great form, winning eight of his last ten matches and reaching his first major semi-final at the recent European Championships.

This will be his Grand Slam debut and we have to remember that this will be only his fourth major.

Nathan Rafferty

Will be making his third Grand Slam appearance in a row despite being just 23 years old. He made the second round on debut in 2021 when he gave Gerwyn Price a real scare in his first match, going down 4-5. He then beat Schindler and Ratajski before going out to Jonny Clayton.

Last year he lost to Ross Smith and MVG, but got a win over Luke Woodhouse. At least he knows where the toilets are, but he couldn’t have been drawn in a tougher group. His recent form is six wins from his last ten matches but he looks to lack the fire power to survive in this group.

The Verdict

We have to expect Price to qualify, but who joins him? Can Searle improve on his TV form, or will the confident young Van Veen reach the knockout phase on debut?

Group E

Peter Wright

Returned to the major winner’s enclosure when winning the European Championship two weeks ago.

His game had been coming back after a poor season. It might not have been the best performance we have seen to win a major, but he was good enough to beat whoever was put in front of him. It was no more than his B+ game at times but it will have done a lot to restore his confidence, which is half the battle.

He followed that big win up with back to back defeats at the following two Players Championship events and he has won six of his last ten matches. His Grand Slam record is good, reaching three finals and one other semi-final, but he has gone out at the group stage for two of the last three years. Group win rate ratio 0.50.

Dave Chisnall

Chizzy was perfectly primed going into the Grand Prix. He had won a Euro Tour title and Players Championship title in close succession. This was going to be the one, the elusive major title. He lost in the first round, just as he did at the World Matchplay, and the UK Open.

Chizzy has picked up no less than three Euro Tour title and two Players Championships in 2023. He was runner up in another Euro Tour event and a Players Championship runner up three times. That is very close to nine titles. An each way backers dream. But on TV? He won one match at the Masters, and that’s it. I think he may be putting too much pressure on himself. Group win rate ratio 0.30.

Great Year

This has been a great year for Chisnall, five titles and won the Euro Tour OOM and the Pro Tour OOM. Outstanding. But on TV? He is like a different player. He will be well aware of it, and that only makes it harder.

Chisnall knows with the form he is in, he should at the very least be having good runs on TV, not bombing out early. Chisnall’s Grand Slam record is not good. He reached the final back in 2014, but his best outside of that is a solitary quarter final.

He has gone out at the group stage five times and only got beyond round two twice in ten appearances. His recent form is once again, excellent. He warmed up by winning the final Players Championship event of 2023 and he has won thirteen of his last fourteen matches. I doubt that will make much difference.

Stephen Bunting

Having a great run of form but he is another player who really struggles to convert great form into titles, especially big ones. At least Chisnall wins things outside of the TV tournaments. Bunting just has good runs.

Bunting has won eight of his last ten matches and he is playing with pretty good consistency, hard to beat with the odd drop in scoring, but there is no denying his form.

His Grand Slam Record is odd. He made the quarter finals in 2014 but in his three subsequent appearances, he has gone out in the second round twice and the group stage once. He has a good chance to make to the second round again. Group win rate ratio 0.75, and three out of four isn’t bad.

Stowe Bunce

The North American qualifier. I have never seen him throw a dart and he had been a fringe player in North American darts for years, but never threatening to get into the big events.

However, in August his form went through the roof, winning a CDC Pro Tour title and he followed that up with two more to make it three on the bounce. Then last month he won the CDC Continental Cup.

That means he has qualified for this, the World Championships and next year’s US Masters. His season average is 86.5 but his A game is ton plus, so he could be a disruptor if he is up for it. Or he could lose all three group matches.

His dress style is influenced by Snakebite, so you may want to adjust the colour settings on your TV for that match.

The Verdict

Wright and Bunting for me.

Group F

Danny Noppert

Reached the semi-finals of the European Championship a couple of weeks ago, ending a poor run in the 2023 TV events. That is his strongest major, but in the Grand Slam he has played four and made the knockout phase twice, losing both his second round matches.

His recent form sees eight wins from his last ten but his consistency has been poor with four sub 90 averages included. He has won two Players Championship events in 2023, including PC22 in September. Group win rate ratio 0.25.

Andrew Gilding

Has lost five of his last ten matches and that reflects a lack of consistency in his performances. By winning the UK Open and reaching the semi-final of the Grand Prix he has had a great season, but he went out in the first round in the Matchplay and European Championship.

It is hard to see a long run here unless he finds his A game pronto. Gilding has played in one Grand Slam but went out at the group stage.

Brendan Dolan

Will be playing in his sixth Grand Slam and he has gone out at the group stage in four of them. His recent form is poor, losing six of his last ten, so it was a surprise to see him coming through the Pro Tour qualifier last week.

Dolan just plugs away, tries his best and if the darts go in, he can win matches, but his current form is not his best.

Haruki Muramatsu

The PDC Asian Championship winner. The 46 year old has played in four World Championships, the last being way back in 2014, and he has won three matches. He was a World Cup semi-finalist in 2019 so he has some experience of playing on PDC TV stages.

His seasonal average is 87.8. He has been in the UK playing in the Modus Super Series and it did the trick as he went back to the Asian Tour after that stint and won the Asian Championship last month.  His low average in that championship was 75 and his high was 101. He can play, but consistency is not to be expected.

The Verdict

This group is very winnable for a good player and that looks like Noppert, despite not being in top form. Who will join him? I will go for Andrew Gilding. He is 3-0 against Dolan in 2023 and is playing a bit better. That said, it is a soft group and maybe Muramatsu can play his part in deciding the outcome.

Group G

Michael van Gerwen

A three time winner of the Grand Slam but his grip on the event reflects his weakening grip on the sport in general. From three consecutive wins, followed by two semi-finals and then three quarter finals. It is still a fine record, but no longer one of dominance.

His recent form is decent with six wins from his last ten, but defeats to the like of Gian van Veen, Ricardo Pietreczko, Ryan Joyce and Dave Chisnall in matches at the business end of tournaments sums up where he is. Vulnerable to defeat.

There are too many good players around for him, or anyone else for that matter, to dominate. He still has the Mighty Mike tag, but it is very rare to see him at backable odds. Group win rate ratio 0.73.

Rob Cross

Another top player who is just finding winning matches at the business end very hard. In his last fifty matches Cross has lost five quarter finals and a semi. He won a couple of World Series events in August but they are soft events and his last ‘proper’ win was on the Euro Tour back in May.

Voltage keeps on playing well, but losing when in sight of the winning post. I have been suckered into backing him a few times and it is just too expensive and at increasingly modest odds.

Cross has won eight of his last ten matches, he should qualify and may well make the quarter finals, but then his backers should worry. He has always made the knockout phase and has lost two quarter finals. Which sounds almost like a prediction. His group win ratio of 0.17 is surprisingly poor for someone who has always made the second round.

Martijn Kleermaker

Another surprise Pro Tour qualifier. The giant Dutchman has a win rate of just 48% in 2023 and he won his three qualifying matches with sub 90 averages. He has lost five of his last ten matches and he really isn’t playing well at all. He is very hard to fancy.

Fallon Sherrock

Gets her chance thanks to being runner up in the Women’s Series OOM. If she hadn’t, I’m sure the PDC would have found some way to shoehorn her into the event.

Sherrock is another player to be found honing her game in the Modus Super Series and she has picked up five Women’s Series titles in 2023. Four wins all came recently, with four in a row in WS 20, 21,22 and 23.

Her record afterwards in the Modus Series was played 23 and won 11. Her seasonal average is 85 but we should expect her to up her performance on TV.

Novelty Wearing Off

It must be said that the novelty factor is wearing off. When she ‘broke the glass ceiling’ at Ally Pally in the 2020 World Championships, the crowd gave her opponents hell and she rode the wave well. That earned her further TV appearances but without much success.

Since that headline writing run to the last 32 in the 2020 World Championships, she has played 24 TV matches and won just 5. Three of those five wins came in the 2021 Grand Slam when she beat Mike de Decker 5-0, averaging 101.5, and Gabriel Clemens 5-3 to make the knockout stage.

Sherrock beat Suljovic (again) in the second round but lost narrowly to Peter Wright in the third round. Since then her TV record is played fifteen and won two.

The Verdict

It would be a huge surprise if MVG and Cross were not the two qualifiers.

Group H

Nathan Aspinall

The Asp is the seeded player here. His recent form is the worst in the tournament, losing eight of his last ten matches. He showed no interest in trying to qualify for the upcoming Players Championship finals, withdrawing from four events to spend time with his wife on her birthday.

It is not that long ago that he was runner up in the World Series final and he won the Matchplay back in July. Why he has seemingly lost his mojo I have no idea. Maybe it was a really expensive birthday.

The Asp was runner up here last year and a quarter finalist in 2020 and I wouldn’t write him out of making the knockout phase. However, there are others that make more appeal. Group win rate ratio 0.25.

Damon Heta

Was a quarter finalist on debut in 2020 but narrowly went out at the group stage last year. His recent form is very good, winning eight of his last ten matches, including three qualifiers to get here.

The Heat has been playing some very good stuff and has to be fancied to make the knockout stage.

Ricardo Pietreczko

Has been in great form recently. He won the final Euro Tour event of the season and followed that up with a Players Championship semi-final and a quarter final. He has won six of his last ten matches and is hitting a lot of ton plus averages.

Pietreczko may lack the rock solid consistency to win the whole shebang but reaching the knockout phase is within his grasp.

Beau Greaves

It will be interesting to see how Beau has progressed since making her big PDC debut at the World Championship. It is fair to say that she was a bit nervous on debut and lost 0-3 to Willy O’Connor.

Since then, Greaves has continued to dominate the Women’s game, winning twelve Women’s Series titles and winning seven singles titles in 2023. She got some stick for deciding to play at Lakeside for the 2024 WDF world Championship, rather than return to Ally Pally, but she has time on her side, so why not win that World title before joining the big boys at the very top?

Greaves has not kicked on in terms of her average in 2023, it is up by 1 point on 2022, but she is caught in that no man’s land between being too good for the Women’s game, but not yet good enough to be playing against Pro Tour players week in week out.

2023 Grand Slam of Darts Group Winner Selections

Group A

It is now a Grand Slam tradition to back Michel Smith to win his group. It has paid out for the last five years in a row and with a Group win ratio of 0.78, Smith is the most prolific group winner in the tournament. James Wade is the alternative at 4.00.

2023 Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 2 points Michael Smith to win Group A @ 1.83 with SpreadEx

Group B

A much more open looking group. Clayton has won three of his previous five groups and his Premier League record tells us he likes league tables. His recent form is not his best however. 

Chris Dobey hardly puts a foot wrong at the moment and that sort of consistency can be rewarded in a group format. Josh Rock has the talent and he only missed out on a group win on debut last year by leg difference.  

Clayton is the 2.88 favourite to win the group, Dobey 3.00 and Rock 3.20.

2023 Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 1 point Chris Dobey to win Group B @ 3.00 SpreadEx, Boylesports, Betvictor

Group C

Luke Humphries is the 2.20 favourite, Gary Anderson 3.25, Dirk van Duijvenbode 5.00 with Lennon the 17.00 rag.

Anderson has won eight of his previous fifteen groups, which shows his experience, but Humphries is now a major champion and keen to get more. Humphries and Anderson are two of the heaviest scorers in the game and they look the likely qualifiers.

Dirk’s fitness remains an issue while Lennon has become a bit of a fringe player. I do wonder if Anderson will be a bit tight again as he tries to win the one that has got away from him in the past.

Anderson is 4-3 with Humphries and on TV 1-1. My head says Humphries, but Anderson looks better value. I’ll swerve this one.

Group D

Tournament specialist Gerwyn Price is the 1.67 favourite to win this group. He is a prolific group winner with five from seven played. He is also in great form and should justify those odds.

Ryan Searle is not my idea of value at 5.00 on TV. Gian van Veen is quality, and very much at home in first to five leg matches thanks to all his development tour matches. He is also in very good form and I’d fancy him to qualify.

Nathan Rafferty is a better player than odds of 26.00 suggest, but he has landed in a very tough group.

2023 Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 2 points Gerwyn Price to win Group D @ 1.67 with SpreadEx

Group E

I like the odds for Stephen Bunting to win this group. He has a group win ratio of 0.75, second to only Michael Smith. He is also in great form.

It will not be easy as he is up against the newly crowned European Championship winner, Peter Wright and the very much in-form Dave Chisnall. American qualifier Buntz is unlikely to get through.

Wright is the 2.63 favourite, Chisnall 2.88, Bunting 5.00 and Buntz 21.00.

Chizzy has only won three groups in his ten appearances, Wright five from ten and while they both have good chances, so has Bunting and at far better odds.

2023 Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 1 point Stephen Bunting to win Group E @ 5.00, BET365 with Betvictor, Fitzdares

Group F

Not the strongest group but Noppert makes the most appeal despite being a little inconsistent. Neither Dolan or Gilding are in good form and the Japanese qualifier is a bit of an unknown quantity but looks to be lacking the firepower to win the group.

2023 Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 1 point Danny Noppert to win Group F @ 2.00 with Betvictor

Group G

Needless to say that MVG is the 1.62 favourite to qualify. With a group win ratio of 0.73, he is up there with Smith, Bunting and Price as serial group winners. His odds are shorter because the market still overrates him compared to other players.

Rob Cross is in better form than MVG but his group win ratio is a very poor 0.17. He has the ability to win it but he probably won’t. Cross has a poor record against MVG, and their match is likely to decide the group winner.

MVG is 25 – 7 but more recently, Cross has started to improve that record. He has won three of their last seven matches and that should make him feel less intimidated when facing his old nemesis.

Cross is 3.25 to win the group but this is one that I am happy to pass by.

Group H

This is interesting. Nathan Aspinall, who has lost eight of his last ten matches, is the 2.50 favourite. He has only won one of his groups in his last four visits.

He can be opposed with Damon Heta, a 2.75 shot and winner of eight of his last ten matches. Or the in-form and exciting Ricardo Pietreczko at 4.50. Then there is the best female player in the world, Beau Greaves at 17.00.

I will have a go with Damon Heta. His floor form has been excellent lately and if he can take that to the TV stage, he could go 3-0. He was unlucky here last year, going out in the group stage on leg difference (by 1 leg) despite winning two of his three matches. He also won two from three in his other appearance in 2020.

2023 Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 1 point Damon Heta to win Group H @ 2.75 with Spreadex

Outright 2023 Grand Slam of Darts Winner

With another major title under his belt, the new European Champion is back on the radar. Wright has made the final in three of the last five years and his odds are good enough for an each way bet.

2023 Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 1 point e/w Peter Wright @ 17.00 with Betfred

Chris Dobey’s major form is improving and he is getting used to have good runs on TV. I think his time in this year’s Premier League did him a lot of good and he feels like he belongs at the top table. Dobey seems happy with how things are going and he lacks for nothing in terms of ability. His odds look a touch generous to me.

2023 Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 1 point e/w Chris Dobey @ 34.00 with Spreadex

There will be daily updates for the 2023 Grand Slam of Darts but not on a match by match basis at the group phase. Betting in those matches has been a bit brutal in the past so I’ll be trying to be very selective and try and find a few value bets, but it has been hard to win in those very short format matches.

-JamesPunt