2023 Haydock and Kempton Saturday Preview – DS
2023 Haydock and Kempton Saturday Preview
Dave Stevos has already posted his Leopardstown Saturday tips. See them here. He is also going to preview all eight live races on ITV this Saturday so it is going to be an incredibly busy day. His 2023 Haydock and Kempton Saturday preview is below.
1.35 Kempton – September Stakes (Group 3)
The race made famous by Enable. She won it in 2020 and in 2018 and last year, the very talented Mostahdaf landed it. Bay Bridge is the class act this year and he is just 5/4 to bring home the bacon. Israr looks the biggest threat on paper but he has to concede 5lbs to the Stoute horse even though he is rated 6lbs inferior.
Candleford needs to improve plenty to beat the top two and this is a race I am happy to swerve with just seven runners. No bet.
2023 Haydock and Kempton Saturday Tips: No bet
1.50 Haydock – Superior Mile Stakes (Group 3)
If Light Infantry repeats the form he showed in France last time out, he wins. However, he hasn’t won since October 2021 and all of his best recent runs have come on the other side of the English Channel. To be fair, he usually runs at a higher level than this and he won’t have many better opportunities to end his long losing run. At 15/8, he is the one to beat.
We backed Misty Grey last time out in the G2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury (7f gd/sft). After breaking well he got badly outpaced 3f out and he dropped out to the rear. He then got a second wind in the final furlong and ended up staying on late to get up for fifth, 8L behind the winner Witch Hunter and 4l behind Chindit in third.
On that evidence the step up to a mile today should suit. The son of Dark Angel already has form at this trip, including a Listed third on the all-weather at Wolverhampton. He went close in a G3 at Goodwood just over a year ago (7f gd) and he ran respectably in two previous visits to Haydock. Over this distance he should be able to close the gap to Chindit and at 20/1, a place is not out of the question.
2023 Haydock and Kempton Saturday Tips: Misty Grey e/w @ 20/1
2.10 Kempton – London Mile Final Handicap (Class 2)
Off a mark of 87, Keyser Soze is of interest here. Richard Spencer has his string in fine fettle and this horse is fairly nicely handicapped. His last all weather win came over this C&D off 3lbs lower back in January, a win that earned him his place in this race. I’d imagine this has been the plan since so I wouldn’t read too much into his last few starts.
The son of Arcano has had 100 days off since his last outing at Yarmouth. His absence isn’t a big worry as he has gone well fresh before. That Kempton win came after a 68 day absence and he has run big races after even longer breaks in the past. He has had four previous runs at Kempton, returning form figures of 1331 with the two thirds coming off 91 and 94.
A hold up sort, he is best suited by a strongly run race and it looks like he’ll get that today. The likes of Imperial Sands, Bear Force One and Two Tempting should ensure it is a truly run affair and hopefully they’ll set it up for a closer. Luck in running will be needed from stall 2 but even so, Keyser Soze is worth backing e/w at odds of 25/1.
2023 Haydock and Kempton Saturday Tips: Keyser Soze e/w @ 25/1 (4 places) NB
2.25 Haydock – Betfair Handicap (Class 2)
After looking at this race for well over half an hour, I am still no nearer to finding a bet. The two outsiders are both Johnston horses and my record when tipping anything from that yard is atrocious. The Goat may need softer ground and the rest are all chalked up at single figure odds. On a busy day like today this is an easy race to swerve. No bet.
2023 Haydock and Kempton Saturday Tips: No bet
2.35 Ascot – Bet365 Handicap (Class 2)
Ropey Guest finally landed the big pot he deserved last time at York. The step up to a mile really suited him but as we know, he is effective over 7f too. However, his last couple of runs at Ascot have been underwhelming and after his York win George Margarson said it was the change in scenery that sparked his return to top form. He probably hasn’t got much in hand off 99 either so the percentage call is to oppose him this time.
Up until last year’s Royal Meeting, Top Secret boasted a 100% record on fast ground over 7f at Ascot. He landed handicaps off 72 and 82 in 2021, the latter win coming in this very race. His only other run at the track came on rain softened ground and that didn’t suit the son of Anjaal.
Ground Key
He is now down to a mark of 86, dropped 2lbs for a poor run on soft at Newbury last month. However, his last start on good to firm was a cracking effort at Salisbury where he found just Bluelight Boy 1.25l too good.
He has run into second on two of his four runs this season so the ability is still there, hopefully the return to this track enables him to pull out the little bit extra he needs to get his head back in front. At odds of 33/1, Top Secret is the e/w selection.
2023 Ascot Saturday Tips: Top Secret e/w @ 33/1 (4 places)
3.00 Haydock – Old Borough Cup Handicap (Class 2)
We backed Caius Chorister in the Ebor and she was very unlucky in the run. She met trouble at the worst possible moment before staying on strongly to get up for place money in sixth. Unfortunately, the silly odds about her are no more on the back of that run and she is just 11/2 to make amends. Outstanding claims with Jamie Spencer taking over and once the run doesn’t come too soon, she should go very close.
We aren’t in the business of backing 11/2 shots though so instead, I’ll take a chance on last year’s fourth, Haliphon. One of two runners for Ian Williams, this son of Showcasing is in off 86 today. In the 2022 renewal he was beat just 3.5l off 94 after meeting trouble in running so off 8lbs lower, you’d think the 6yo will be very competitive here.
His best run this term came at York two runs ago off 85. He was narrowly beat over 14f by Alnilam and he is just one pound higher today. Last time at York it was a non-event over 16f but the drop back in trip here should suit. He is now 4lbs lower than his last winning mark, 8lbs lower than he was in this last season and Ben Curtis is 16/110 with 42 Top 4 finishes for Ian Williams. At odds of 25/1, back Haliphon e/w.
2023 Haydock and Kempton Saturday Tips: Haliphon e/w @ 25/1 (4 places) NAP
3.10 Ascot – Lavazza Stakes Handicap (Heritage)
Another valuable handicap but unfortunately, e/w value is thin on the ground. Nine horses have been declared and at the time of writing, none were bigger than 12/1. This is another race we’ll give a wide berth to. No bet.
2023 Ascot Saturday Tips: no bet
3.35 Haydock – Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1)
We are already on Run To Freedom ante-post at 20s for this race. You can read my reasoning here. Hopefully he can follow in the hoofsteps of his half brother Twilight Son, the winner of the Sprint Cup in 2015. Drying ground is fine, I’m happy with the draw and jockey booking and everything looks set for the son of Muhaarar to run another huge race for us.
With such a big field it makes sense to back another one and Annaf fits the bill. Trained by Mick Appleby, it is just a couple of months since this lad ran a cracker for us at massive odds in the King’s Stand at Ascot. Only Bradsell and Highfield Princess finished ahead of him and he was only 1.75L behind the latter horse.
Denied A Clear Run
Since then, he has run respectably in the Charge at Sandown, denied a clear run and beat 2.5L into fourth. The ease in the ground was against him on his penultimate outing at Newbury and then he was far too keen in a Listed heat at Newmarket last time. He is a much better horse than he showed on that occasion and he should settle better today.
His best turf run was in the King’s Stand over 5f but three of his four wins have been at 6f. On the form of his Duke Of York run (6f gd) and that Ascot effort, he is more than capable of running into the money here. If Ali Rawlinson can drop him out, get cover and chart a clear passage, Annaf can surprise a few with a big run at odds of 66/1.
