2023 Hungarian GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2023 Hungarian GP Raceday Update
James Punt got off the mark for the weekend in thrilling style on Saturday. Lewis Hamilton took pole by the narrowest of margins to land his 7.00 bet. You can James’ outright preview here, his 2023 Hungarian GP Raceday Update is below.
2023 Hungarian GP Raceday
It was nice to get the pole position bet up at a nice price yesterday and we now have a bit more of a race on our hands this afternoon.
The upgraded Red Bull hasn’t quite found its sweet spot on this track with Verstappen unhappy with the balance of the car. It is not bad however and he remains the big 1.53 favourite to make it seven wins in a row.
Verstappen is the runaway championship leader and not under any pressure, but he, and Red Bull, would love to do the near impossible and win every race of the season. They are ten from ten so far but the pack is closing.
Pressure On Perez
Their chances are getting slimmer thanks to the collapse of Sergio Perez who once again bombed in qualifying. He put himself under enormous pressure by thinking he had some sort of chance of winning the championship after winning two of the first four races of the season. His crash in qualifying at Monaco fully extinguished his dreams and he has spiralled out of control ever since.
The return of Daniel Ricciardo to the Red Bull family will not have gone unnoticed in Camp Perez. Ricciardo stuck the worst car on the gid into 13th place yesterday, only four places behind Perez in the best car on the grid.
Hopefully Red Bull do not just do the obvious and get the Aussie into the Red Bull for the second half of the season, as that ends any hope of our ante post bet on Perez to win without Verstappen.
Liability
However, Red Bull have got form for doing just that and you couldn’t blame them as Perez is a liability, and a waste of the prime seat in F1.
Perez job is, once again, to make the most of a bad job. At least he has plenty of practice of doing that, but it won’t be easy here. There are really only two overtaking opportunities here, the first hairpin and the 2nd, 3rd and 4th corner complex. If you get the first one wrong, you won’t be able to do it in the following corners, so in reality, you have one chance a lap.
Come From Behind
There have been some good come from behind drives here. In 2014 Hamilton finished 3rd having started from the pitlane. It was a controversial race as he ignored team orders to let Rosberg past in the race.
Rosberg had started on pole, Hamilton from the pits, he compounded that by spinning off at the second corner to drop even further back. He made his way up to 13th when a safety car bunched the field and caused the top four to miss the pit lane and after it settled down, Rosberg was 4th from 1st.
Hamilton picked up four more places before a second safety car mixed things up again. Hamilton stayed out a got track position ahead of Rosberg when the latter stopped for new tyres. That was when Hamilton defied team orders, ruined Rosberg’s race but got his own podium from a very unlikely starting point.
Outlier
It can be done, but it needed an extraordinary combination of events and conditions to allow it. Raikkonen made up 10 places in the same race and it was a real outlier in terms of what usually happens here. The double safety car made the difference and we don’t usually see one very often here, just once in the last five years for example.
In 2015 Alonso finished 5th from 15th. In 2016 Raikkonen made up 8 places to finish 6th. Ricciardo made up 8 places to finish 4th in 2018, as did Albon in 2020. The 2021 race was fully mental. Ocon won from eighth, Sainz was 3rd from 15th, Latifi 7th form 18th amongst others. That was a result of a wet start and a huge pile up at the first corner which took out many of the front runners.
Last year Verstappen won from 10th on the grid and Vettel made 10th from 18th. Verstappen had lost out form lap time deletions and had the a huge car advantage.
Tough
The lesson is that coming from behind here is tough. If you have a big car advantage you can make up about 8-10 places, anything more than that needs something more, like rain or multiple safety cars to mix things up.
It isn’t going to rain today and full safety cars are not common here. A virtual safety car yes, but they do not tend to mix up the order quite so much.
The pole sitter has not had a great record here in the turbo hybrid era, winning just three from nine. Two have been won from third and one from second, one from fourth, one from eighth and one from tenth. The one from eighth was the 2021 mental race, and last year it was Verstappen from tenth.
The attrition rate has averaged out at 2.78 but last year saw no retirements, three years saw just one, but two saw six. I guess that we should be back to one or two at most unless we have crashes.
Team by Team
Red Bull
They have got a bit more on their plate today. Verstappen does not start on pole and on a track where overtaking is difficult he may have to work for a win. He started second in Azerbaijan and finished second, losing out to Perez who was still a racing driver at that point.
They also have two quick McLarens right behind and Verstappen lost out to Norris at the start at Silverstone. If he finds himself behind Hamilton, or Hamilton and Norris, it could take a while to get in front and he may have to take risks to do so.
DRS
The powerful Red Bull DRS could rescue him here, but the wind has shifted 180 degrees today. It is behind the cars going down the straight and that will lessen the effect to some degree.
Perez is not really in the frame. He is now slower on merit to the McLarens, he has zero confidence, but at least he starts in the top 10. I heard a pundit saying how well Perez had done to make Q3. I assume they were taking the piss.
Mercedes
Hamilton starts from pole for the first time in over a year. He knows the ropes here and he should be able to keep Verstappen behind at the start.
The Red Bull hasn’t been the class of the field off the line at times, not least at Silverstone, and Hamilton will be hoping that one of the McLaren’s could get between him and Verstappen, just to make things more interesting.
The Mercedes’ race pace is traditionally better than qualifying pace and they were very close to Red Bull in the long runs in practice. Russell starts from 18th and he has his work cut out to finish in the points.
McLaren
Had spent the buildup saying that this was going to be a hard track for them and downplayed expectations. That has been exposed as BS by locking out the second row. Their long run pace was close to Red Bull and Mercedes.
Tyre wear was said to be good in practice, but like everyone else, they are going to be facing a much hotter track today. They are racing for podiums. A double podium following a near miss at Silverstone? Why not?
Alfa Romeo
I fancied Bottas to get a top 10 in the preview, but bottled it and didn’t back him at 6.50. It turns out they have the fourth best car on this track, better than Ferrari, better than Alpine, better than Aston Martin.
Their heavy fuel runs were impressive and out of the blue, Alfa Romeo have hit their sweet spot. There are no really fast corners here so their weak point is negated.
Bottas is good here but it was Zhou who qualified a career best 5th. Bottas starts a creditable 7th and they can legitimately race for a top 6 finish.
Ferrari
Their car remains difficult to drive and traditionally they are slower in the races than qualifying. Sainz failed to make Q3 and starts 11th, Leclerc from 6th. Leclerc may well face the prospect of losing out to both Alfa Romeos, a customer team. Embarrassing.
Aston Martin
The Hungaroring was supposed to be a track that was going to suit the downforce rich Aston. Well it hasn’t so far outside of when it was wet in FP1. Other teams are developing much more effectively than Aston Martin and their balloon has popped.
Alonso starts 8th, Stroll 14th. Alonso is usually good enough to make up a couple of places but he might struggle to do that today. 8th place looks to be where he should finish.
Haas
Hulkenberg made into Q3 once again. He has been phenomenal on Saturdays, but the car only has reverse gear on Sundays.
Alpine
From unlucky, to promising to underperforming. Is the next step the basket case for Alpine? They looked promising in FP2 but have dropped off the radar since then. Starting 12th and 15th is very poor. Getting Ocon home in 10th looks to be the best possible result in a normal race.
Alpha Tauri
A good news story for a team that has been so poor in 2023. They have plugged Daniel Ricciardo into the car and BANG, he qualifies 13th. It is hardly earth shattering but the car had been failing to get out of Q1 in recent races.
Has Ricciardo just devalued Tsunoda’s reputation? There had been insane talk that Yuki was good enough to replace Perez at Red Bull. I guess Daniel has put himself above the Japanese driver in one qualifying session. 13th may be as good as it gets for Ricciardo as their long run pace is not promising.
Williams
Expected to be less competitive here and so they are.
2023 Hungarian GP RaceDay Selections
The experimental qualifying session was hard to assess. We do have a different looking grid, but is that track specific or qualifying system induced? I suspect a bit of both, but mostly the track.
Hamilton was able to out perform Verstappen, by just 0.003 seconds, by driving a better lap. He was helped by the Red Bull not being at its best, or even average, level on this track. They have not been fastest in any session so far and they may actually be beatable.
It needs Verstappen to have a difficult day but he hasn’t enjoyed the weekend so far. McLaren are rampant, Lewis looks like a dog with two tails and once again, Verstappen’s teammate is not in a great position to help.
Time To Dream
Can we dream of a non-Red Bull win? I would say that there is some hope. Norris and Hamilton are good enough drivers to get the most out of their machines and if there is a weakness in the newly upgraded Red Bull, maybe they just didn’t get the set up right, then the playing field may be as level as we have seen all season.
The Mercedes is a bit of a diva. The sweet spot is small but Hamilton found it yesterday. My only concern is rear tyre wear. The new Merc still has a loose rear end. This track with its lack of fast corners hides that to some degree, but the Mercedes may tend to suffer with a bit more rear tyre deg than the Red Bull and McLaren.
The worry with the McLaren is that they may struggle with the front tyres. They have tended to overheat them in the past and the high track temperature today could find them out. However, this is a heavily revised car. It has improved by a remarkable amount, so they may have found a cure for that problem. We can only wait and see.
Verstappen Odds On
Verstappen is the 1.53 favourite and for good reasons. But he can’t win them all….surely? Lewis Hamilton is the 4.25 second favourite and he knows how to win around here. Mercedes are still a slick operator and can give him his best chance to win.
McLaren are not as used to running at the front but they have two very good drivers and the car is transformed. They will be in the podium hunt from here to the end of the season. Ferrari are not safe in in the constructors’ 4th place.
I’ll Take speculative punt on Norris. This race has seen debut Formula win wins for the likes of Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button and most recently Esteban Ocon. Norris WILL win races so maybe the magic of the Hungaroring can work for him this time.
2023 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point e/w Lando Norris to win the Hungarian GP @ 10.00 with B365
2023 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point double points finish Alfa romeo @ 7.00 with BET365, Hills
I’ll also jump on the Alfa Romeo band wagon. Their pace is real and their race pace is usually decent, albeit from a much lower starting position. The track suits the car and few others are struggling.
2023 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point double top 6 finish for Alfa Romeo @ 26.00 with Hills
Ricciardo can write his own script with a decent race on a track on which he is a past winner. He has out qualified his teammate and starts four places ahead on the grid. Those two are grouped with Williams Alex Albon who starts 16th in a Williams car not expected to be strong here.
2023 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Daniel Ricciardo to win Group 4 @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes
The last bet is a match bet on Piastri to beat Perez. Piastri, 4th at Silverstone last time out, and unlucky not to be on the podium, starts 4th, five places ahead of the struggling Perez. The Red Bull is not that much faster on this track and with making up ground expected to be hard, Perez looks overrated.
