2023 Irish Guineas Ante-Post Betting Tips – DS
2023 Irish Guineas Ante-Post Tips
After a decent start to the week at York, things took a turn for the worse over the weekend. Nine bets across Saturday and Sunday and not even a place to show for it. Hopefully we have got the losers out of the way now and we can look ahead to Guineas weekend at the Curragh. Dave Stevos tipped up Romanised for the 2000 at 40s a couple of years ago, he found Mac Swiney at 10/1 in 2021 and last year we nicked a place with Imperial Fighter at 50/1. Check out his 2023 Irish Guineas ante-post e/w tips below.
3.40 Saturday – Irish 2000 Guineas (Group 1)
The forecast is warm, dry and settled this week so both the 2000 and 1000 Guineas should be run on good to firm ground. After the final forfeit stage just 12 colts remain and Paddington is one of four runners for Coolmore. Aidan trains three of them, headed by Paddington, and he’ll be joined by stablemates Age Of Kings and Cairo. Proud And Regal is their other representative and he’s trained by Donnacha.
Newmarket 2000 Guineas 3rd, Royal Scotsman, has been supplemented for the race. Hi Royal, runner up at Newmarket, has also been left in and those two spearhead a strong UK challenge. They have obvious form claims and both Galeron, the Goffs Million winner at this track, and Charyn, aren’t without a chance either. That is more than reflected in their odds though and I’m taking a chance on one at a much bigger price.
Fast Ground Key?
The interesting one at 25/1 is Bold Discovery. Since he won his maiden in taking style at Naas (7f gd) he has only raced on soft or heavy ground. He has run well in testing conditions but I think that was in spite of the ground and not because of it. Given his pedigree, rattling quick ground could hold the key to him.
It was yielding/soft when he finished 3L behind Cairo in a Leopardstown G3 on his final 2yo start. He made his return as a 3yo over the same C&D on heavy and ran another decent race, staying on from rear to nick 2nd behind Hans Anderson. On his last outing at the Curragh he flopped behind Paddington over a mile but he scoped dirty afterwards so put a line through that.
Stable Form
Jessica Harrington’s horses were not running to form at that stage of the season. Her string has certainly turned the corner now and she had a Listed/G3 across the card double on Saturday. She also has Quar Shamar in here, a son of Shamardal that should also love the ground, but Bold Discovery has much stronger form in the book.
He is by Bolt D’Oro, a top class juvenile on the dirt in the US a few years ago. He was Champion first season sire in the US last season and while Bold Discovery has been his sole runner to date in the UK or Ireland, he has produced plenty of US winners, mostly on dirt but a couple on fast ground. Bolt D’Oro’s sire is Medaglia D’Oro and his progenys’ strike rate is much better on quick ground. His dam is by Arch and he is another sire that has produced plenty of classy quick ground performers.
Jockey Booking
Dusty Foley has ridden both of the Harrington horses on all their runs to date. He’ll be on the one they think has the best chance and if he picks Bold Discovery, you’d imagine his price will shorten considerably. On the form they have shown so far, Bold Discovery looks the logical pick, especially if they expect improvement on quicker ground.
Hi Royal, the supplemented Royal Scotsman and Galeron set the standard on their 2000 Guineas form at Newmarket but this is going to be a very different test on faster ground. Paddington is unproven on quicker than soft and Galeron would like to see rain too. Bold Discovery is 1/1 on ground with good in the description and if the rain stays away, he will hopefully run a huge race at odds of 25/1.
2023 Irish Guineas Tip – Bold Discovery e/w @ 25/1
3.50 Sunday – Irish 1000 Guineas (Group 1)
On Sunday, the girls take centre stage in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Tahiyra, a gallant runner up behind Mawj in the English version, is odds on to make amends. She looked like she’d come on plenty for that Newmarket run and Weld said beforehand he’d have liked another fortnight to prepare. She should be spot on now though and this better ground should suit her well.
Meditate is a very classy filly who struggled on soft ground at Newmarket. These conditions will be much more to her liking. The daughter of No Nay Never hacked up on firm ground at the Breeders’ Cup over a mile last season but this will be a stiffer test. Will she stay a mile at the Curragh? Maybe, but her sire is best known as a speed influence and he has a 44% winner to runner strike rate at 5-6f compared to just 31% at 7-9f.
Soft Ground Form
Aidan O’Brien also has Never Ending Story in here. She has won a G3 on good ground but her last four starts have come on soft/heavy. Her career best effort came two starts ago in the 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown (7f hvy) where she beat Matilda Picotte by 2.5L. The mile trip shouldn’t be an issue for her, you’d just wonder is she up to this standard on quick ground.
Another one that has recent soft ground form in the book is Aspen Grove. She ran an eye catching race behind Zarinsk and Tarawa in a Leopardstown G3 (8f sft/hvy) three weeks ago on her seasonal bow. She was drawn wide in stall 10 and Mark Enright was trapped on the outside for the entire race. Tarawa (12/1 here) got a lovely gap in the home straight and had 1.25L to spare over Aspen Grove at the finish. However, if Fozzy Stack’s charge had a kinder trip she would have finished in front of her.
C&D Winner
The daughter of Justify is the sole course and distance winner in the field. That win came the last time she got good ground and it was a decisive victory in a Group 3. In that contest she was held up in rear and 2f out she looked an unlikely winner. Mark Enright switched her wide as they approached the last furlong and she sprouted wings, flying home to win going away by over a length.
Admittedly, that wasn’t the strongest stakes race ever but the 3rd home, Eternal Silence, finished 3rd behind Tahiyra and Meditate in the Moyglare and she had Never Ending Story 2L behind her in 4th. She is a 16/1 shot here and Aspen Grove is 25/1. In my opinion, the Stack filly should definitely be shorter than her. On a line through Eternal Silence she has around 2L to find with Meditate and over this C&D, she may well outstay that filly. Tahiyra is the one to beat but at the prices, Aspen Grove looks well worth chancing e/w.
