2023 Irish Oaks Ante-Post Betting Tip – DS
2023 Irish Oaks Ante-Post Tip
We finished off the July Festival in flying form. Pride Of America got us off the mark for the day at 33s under an inspired Frederick Larson. The highlight for me though was Run To Freedom’s cracking effort in the July Cup. Winners at 20s (NB), 33s and a place at 33s (NAP) ensured we had a profitable week overall, hopefully we can carry the momentum into this weekend. First up, a 2023 Irish Oaks ante-post tip, see who Dave Stevos’ is backing below.
Saturday: 2.25 Curragh – Irish Oaks (Group 1)
After forfeits this afternoon just nine fillies remain in the running for the Irish Oaks. Six of the field are trained by O’Briens, five for Aidan and one for Baby Joseph. The other trainers represented are Ralph Beckett with Bluestocking, Jim Bolger with Comhra and Dermot Weld with Azazat.
The weather over here in Ireland has taken a turn for the worst in the past week or so. It has been wet, wet, wet and there is more rain forecast in the coming days. At the moment the Curragh is reportedly yielding to soft, soft in places but with the unsettled conditions set to continue and at least 10mm forecast before the race, the ground is going to be pretty testing.
Ground To Suit Fav
The 2023 Irish Oaks ante-post favourite is Savethelastdance. By Galileo, she is 2/3 on soft/heavy. A 10f maiden win on heavy was followed by a 22l Listed win on soft at Chester (11.5f) and she found just Soul Sister too good in the Epsom Oaks, her first try on fast ground. The return to softer conditions is clearly a massive plus for her and she is the one to beat.
Warm Heart is next best in the betting. By Galileo, she has won/placed on soft/heavy but those efforts came in maiden company. Her last two runs, the best of her career, came on good to firm. She beat Bluestocking by a head at Newbury (10f gd) and then she ran out an easy winner of the Ribblesdale, beating Lumiere Rock by 2.5L and increasing the gap to Bluestocking to 3.75l. Will she be as good on soft? I wouldn’t put the house on it.
Overpriced
Two horses look overpriced here. If the ground somehow came up good, I’d be all over Comhra at 33s. She is crying out for this sort of trip on nice ground. We backed her last time when she bombed out but she reportedly was suffering with allergies after her trip to Ascot. I have no doubt she is better than that but she has finished weakly on her last couple of starts on slow ground.
Azazat, on the other hand, has plenty of form on testing ground. Trained by Dermot Weld, who has amazingly only won this race twice (1981 & 1996), this daughter of Camelot has form on slow ground with Savethelastdance. She finished 2.75L behind her over 10f on her seasonal return at Leopardstown on heavy, a fine effort.
Munster Oaks
Weld’s filly got off the mark at the third attempt, landing a 12f maiden at Leopardstown by 5l. Her next assignment was in the Munster Oaks where she took on Rosscarbery. Paddy Twomey’s 5yo just prevailed in a thrilling battle and she was running a cracker when badly hampered in the Pretty Polly on her next start so the form looks pretty solid.
Azazat should find things easier now taking on fillies her own age and she is bred to be a G1 3yo winner. Her Sea The Stars dam is a half to St James’ Palace Stakes winner Azamour and her sire Camelot is also the sire of Even So, the winner of this race back in 2020 (also liked soft ground).
The likes of Warm Heart, Bluestocking and Lumiere Rock are all shorter in the betting than Azazat but they have yet to prove their credentials in pattern company on testing ground. The Weld filly has just 2.75l to find with Savethelastdance on their 10f Leopardstown form and over this trip, she could well close that gap markedly. At odds of 16/1, Azazat is the 2023 Irish Oaks ante-post selection.
