2023 Japanese GP Qualifying Update

James Punt has already posted his outright, team by team preview. It can be viewed here. Now, it is time for his 2023 Japanese GP qualifying preview, check it out below.

2023 Japanese GP Qualifying

The first two sessions of free practice have seen normal service being resumed by Max Verstappen and Red Bull. It’s pretty much normal service for Perez as well, struggling to get into the top 10.

With the unseasonably high temperatures, the drivers are reporting a high level of tyre degradation but low grip. That should help Mercedes get their tyres up to temperature in qualifying, but it may mean Ferrari losing a bit of performance as the lap goes on.

Red Bull

Verstappen topped the time sheets in both sessions, fastest on the hard tyres and the soft. He was very happy with the car and he is favourite to be the fastest qualifier.

Perez was over a second slower in FP2 but he says that he knows what changes are needed to the setup to find that pace for qualifying.

Ferrari

The honours were even between the two Ferrari drivers with Sainz second fastest in FP1 and fourth in FP2, while Leclerc was fourth and second. They are few tenths off the Red Bull but looking to be best of the rest, over one lap at least.

McLaren 

Norris was third fastest in both sessions but not entirely happy with how the car felt. Room for improvement overnight but it was a positive start. Piastri was seventh and eighth, which reflects the fact that he is a track debutant.

Mercedes

With no soft tyre runs in FP1 the two Mercs were outside the top 10. They did soft tyre runs in FP2 but their pace was disappointing, with Russell fifth and Hamilton still outside the top 10, back in fourteenth.

Hamilton said that he had no confidence in his car and his tyres were overheating. Work to do overnight and they are playing catch up.

Russell was the quicker Mercedes driver again and he has more momentum going into Saturday. He wasn’t that happy with the car either and while he may outqualify his teammate for the fourth race weekend in a row, a third row might be as good as it gets unless they can find a better setup.

Aston Martin

A better day for Alonso who was sixth fastest in both sessions. Stroll was tenth and eleventh and it was an OK sort of day for the team. Being behind Red Bull, Ferrari (on one lap pace) and Norris was to be expected and they will be hoping that Mercedes won’t be able to unlock more pace from their car. Sixth may be as good as it gets.

Williams

This was not a track on which Williams expected to be particularly competitive but Albon was eighth and seventh in the two sessions. Sargeant, a track newbie, was well off his teammates pace, as per usual.

They are a pretty easy team to read and when they hit the ground running, then Albon usually remains up there. His problem may be the likes of Hamilton, Perez and Piastri all being able to improve tomorrow.

Albon has made Q3 six times in 2023 and five times in the last eight race weekends. Anything bigger than evens to make Q3 isn’t a bad bet. However, Albon wasn’t happy with their race pace and suggested that they may have to sacrifice some qualifying pace to improve their chances of scoring points on Sunday.

Alpine

Look to be where they expected to be, knocking on the door of the top 10. They are close enough to get one car in, but they haven’t had both cars into Q3 for the last eight races.

Gasly had an off late in the FP2 session and damaged the car, but nothing that is going to cause them any problems.

Alpha Tauri

As high as fifth and ninth in FP1 but eighteenth and fifteenth in FP2. Tsunoda was left feeling disappointed with their pace. He hasn’t made Q3 for the last nine races and looks unlikely to do so here. Lawson did make Q3 in Singapore but this is a different proposition altogether.

Alfa Romeo

Qualifying is not the teams forte and their FP times usually flatter them in terms of where they end up in qualifying. Getting both cars out of Q1 may be asking too much once again.

Haas

The hot conditions are not going to suit Haas and the low grip – high deg nature of the track means a horrible Sunday lies ahead. Hulkenberg is 11-4 vs. Magnussen and he looks the quicker of the two again this weekend. Haas have pulled of some qualifying surprises this season , but this doesn’t look like being another.

Interesting Match Bets

Having to post before FP3 takes place in the early hours of Saturday morning is far from ideal but there are a few interesting match bets.

Max Verstappen is the 1.33 favourite to be the fastest qualifier and he should justify the odds. He was comfortably faster in both sessions.

It is a question of which Ferrari driver joins him on the front row, or maybe whether Norris can find a bit more pace overnight. Sainz is on a roll and the setup of the car has moved in his favour. He has out qualified Leclerc in the last three races.

The market is still making Leclerc favourite to be the highest qualifying Ferrari, despite the shift in form towards Sainz. He can be backed at 2.10 with Unibet which nearly made the list.

Best Bet

The best bet for qualifying is not a big price, but the odds just look too big. McLaren have had both cars into Q3 for five of the last six races. That is the period in which both have had the updated car.

Piastri was denied a shot a Q3 last week as he was the first driver to arrive at the scene of Lance Stroll’s Q1 crash. Otherwise, I have no doubt that it would have been six from six.

Norris is a front row contender and Piastri should make the top 10 comfortably.

2023 Japanese GP Qualifying Tip: 4 points McLaren to have both cars into Q3 @ 1.57 with Ladbrokes

Liam Lawson has been very impressive as a stand in driver at Alpha Tauri. He has played himself into position to land a full time drive in 2024. He is putting pressure on both the absent Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda who is trying to please the home fans with a strong showing.

The Alpha Tauri saw upgrades brought for the Singapore GP and it is hard to say how much difference they have made. Lawson outqualified Tsunoda in Singapore and was just one place behind at Monza. That is qualifying twelfth and tenth for Lawson in the two events in which he has a full set of practice sessions.

Tsunoda’s average qualifying position in 2023 is 13.86. That suggests the two should be close in qualifying and maybe Lawson should be favourite? He looks the value bet here.

2023 Japanese GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Liam Lawson to out qualify Yuki Tsunoda @ 2.70 with Livescorebet

George Russell has upped his qualifying game since the summer break. He has outqualified Lewis Hamilton at the last three races. He is a 1.67 shot to do so again, which is a perfectly reasonable bet.

However, I will be more ambitious and back him to outqualify Perez. The Mexican is in the faster car but his performances in qualifying in 2023 leaves a lot to be desired. His confidence evaporated after crashing in the Monaco qualifying session and he has struggled at most venues ever since. His averaged qualifying position is 9.1. and since Monaco 11.1.

Perez was well off the pace again today and while he says he knows how to find the pace, talk is cheap. In their last eight qualifying sessions, Russell has out qualified Perez six times.

2023 Japanese GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point George Russell to out qualify Sergio Perez @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt