2023 Las Vegas GP Raceday Preview

James was hoping to get back amongst the winners in Sin City and he did exactly that. Charles Leclerc took pole this morning, landing a whopping 3 point bet at 7.00. Can he find more winners tonight? Check out his 2023 Las Vegas GP raceday preview below.

2023 Las Vegas GP Raceday Update

It was good to land the three pointer on Leclerc to get pole position this morning, but the race looks altogether trickier.

We have had four, sorry three and bit, sessions with the cars on track and it is hard to get a good feel for it. It seems a bit boring to be honest. Yes, the cars are hitting impressive top speeds, but the lack of any great corners is noticeable. Will it provide good racing? If it does, I will forgive the dull layout, but we shall just wait and see.

The start, as always, will provide threats and opportunities. With all the long straights here, the start line has been placed very close to the first corner and there won’t be much time to find some room. There has to be a big chance of collisions, especially as the first corner is a left hander which turns into a right hander which can create gaps for an ambitious driver to try an exploit.

Overtaking Opportunities

There should be enough overtaking opportunities to allow faster cars to make progress, but the drivers are not sure about how effective the DRS will be.

When running in a low downforce set up, there is less gain when the slot on the rear wing opens, as the wings are in low drag configurations. It is much the same thing as we see at Monza with cars running close down the start – finish straight with DRS and not making any great impact on the car in front.

Being late on the brakes into corners five, twelve and fourteen look to be the best passing places. However, with a low grip surface and cool brakes at the end of the long straights, you need to be brave to throw the anchors out late.

Tyres

Tyres are going to be a big talking point. All the teams are expecting graining to be a problem, rather than the usual straight degradation. Managing graining is a dark art, some drivers can manage it and after a while the tyre will get through the graining phase and be fine, others may have to stop for new tyres.

A one stop race is the plan, but I have heard some drivers say multiple stops may be needed. Of course, we may get safety car deployments which can provide opportunities to change tyres without incurring much time loss.

We have a decent bet on under 16.5 classified finishers, but I’m not so sure now. There has been very little in the way of drivers crashing so far, but with 20 cars on the track and racing, that hopefully will change. It looks like clearing away a crashed or broken down car will be difficult, as is the case at most street circuits.

2023 Las Vegas GP raceday: Team-by-Team

Ferrari

The track has proven to be a good fit for the Ferrari, but the usual caveat still applies. Their car is a better qualifier than a racer. Is there any reason to think it will be any different today? It might be.

On a cold track, cars that get heat into the tyres go well in qualifying, hence Ferrari and Haas going well so far. In a normal race, that trait then becomes a problem as tyre deg becomes an issue and it has blighted Ferrari all season.

There is a chance that the cooler conditions will help Ferrari keep the tyres cool and reduce the rate of degradation. Not having raced here before, it is hard to say if this could be the case, but Ferrari are more optimistic than they would normally be.

They are happy that the problem will be graining rather than over heating of the tyres. Carlos Sainz starts twelfth after getting a grid penalty after the car was rebuilt following the incident in FP1. He should make good progress from there.

Red Bull

Like Ferrari, Red Bull have one car on the front row and the other down the pack in eleventh after a bizarre decision to pit Perez in Q2 just as the track was ramping up. I thought we might get a good run for Perez this weekend and land our three point ante post bet, but it is never plain sailing for Perez.

The car is quick and like Sainz, he should be able to make good inroads. Verstappen is the 1.50 favourite to win the race and with seventeen races under his belt in 2023, 1.50 might well be a decent bet.

There is one thing to point out. Of the three races he didn’t win, all were on street circuits: Jeddah, Baku and Singapore. These kind of layouts do not play to the car’s many strengths as much as normal circuits. Verstappen is not a fan of street circuits due to the lack of high speed corners.

Mercedes

Yet another team with one car up at the sharp end, and the other in the midfield. George Russell will start from third place, Hamilton tenth. Hamilton is good at tyre management and may cope with graining better than some, but he doesn’t look particularly up for it this weekend.

Russell is particularly concerned about the graining and he is worried that it could force him into multiple stops. The car is slower than both the Ferrari and Red Bull and though the team do not consider themselves to be in the hunt for the race, a podium is a possibility.

Alpine

And another team with one driver up front and the other at the back. Ocon didn’t get out of Q1 while Gasly ended up fourth. The Renault is the weakest of the power units and you would think that they would struggle on a track dominated by straights.

It is fair to say that the team are as baffled as everyone else as to how Gasly is so far up. Of course, he is helped by the likes of Perez, Hamilton, Sainz and Stroll all being out of position. They are the hardest team on the grid to understand, but I would expect Gasly to drop back.

Williams

Their first double Q3 for some time, with Albon lining up fifth and Sargeant sixth. When Sargeant is quick you know the car must be good.

Albon is hopeful that setup changes will mitigate the graining problems they suffered on Friday. Their good straight line speed should make them hard to pass and hopefully they can get one of their cars in front of the Alpine and land our ante post bet to win without the big five.

Alfa Romeo

And just to continue the trend, Alfa Romeo have Bottas starting seventh and Zhou seventeenth. Bottas does thrive in low grip conditions and the new track surface here holds no fear for him.

He has been on it from the start, while Zhou has slow all weekend. Hard to say if Bottas can stay in the top 10, but with the likes of Perez and Sainz behind him, it will be touch and go.

Haas

Another team for whom the cold conditions have suited, in qualifying at least. Magnussen is running the upgraded car, Hulkenberg the old one. Like Ferrari, we shall have to wait and see whether the cold track will negate their traditional tyre destroying race characteristics.

Hulkenberg starts thirteenth but Magnussen is in eighth place and he will be hoping that he can score on another street circuit, having finished tenth in Jeddah and Singapore. He is in the same position as Bottas, with a few faster cars behind him.

Aston Martin

Had looked competitive on Friday, but they have regressed as the weekend has gone on. No doubt Alonso will have a decent race but clearly, they are not as competitive here as in Brazil. He starts ninth but Stroll starts from the back row after a poor qualifying performance and a five place grid penalty.

Alpha Tauri

At last, a team that have both cars close to each other. It is not good for Alpha Tauri and they look to be the worst of all the teams this weekend. Ricciardo thinks their race pace is better, but it is hard to see much progress from them.

McLaren

This track was never going to be good for McLaren, but to fail to get either car out of Q1 is a bit of a shocker. They had looked to be heading for a marginal Q3 qualifying position, but both drivers bombed.

They tried to get away with using just one set of soft tyres and that was a mistake. Both drivers should make some headway in the race but they look marginal for points.

2023 Las Vegas GP Raceday Summary

It is a very strange looking grid with eight different teams having a car in the top ten and the two McLarens out at the back. On a brand new track, we are stepping into the unknown.

We have had a good result in qualifying and still have two ante post bets which look interesting. I am reluctant to add too many more bets because there is so much doubt as to how the track and tyres will get on. So far, it has been relatively sane, the Ferrari destroying water mains cover excepted, but one look at the grid and things are far from normal.

Race Winner

It does look like a two horse race between Leclerc and Verstappen. Leclerc has a terrible pole to race win conversion rate, while Verstappen is a winning machine. There are two good reasons to think that this time it might be different.

Firstly it is a track which is much more suited to the Ferrari than the Red Bull. Secondly, the cold temperatures, which might just mean that Ferrari will not suffer their usual race ruining tyre degradation. It might, we don’t really know, but it might. I will reinvest a little of the Leclerc pole money on him to finally convert a pole position in 2023.

2023 Las Vegas GP raceday tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to win@ 3.25 with Unibet

Podium Finish

George Russell is just 1.80 to finish on the podium. He won’t get many better chances but the car doesn’t really look that good here. He looks more of a top 6 contender, but with Sainz, Hamilton and Perez all out of position, he has got a bit of an open goal.

Alex Albon makes some appeal at 26.00. Williams should have a good race car, a hard to pass race car, and his straight line speed could bother the Alpine and Mercedes, neither known for being that quick in a straight line. I will leave this market alone.

Top 6 Finish

There are plenty of contenders for this. From the likes of the Williams drivers, Alonso, Perez, Hamilton and Sainz. We are on the Williams to win without the big five teams at 4.00. Is backing them again enough to tempt the double backed curse to strike?

I expect Albon to be able to get past Gasly and run top four and then it is likely to be him waiting for one of the faster cars to make their way through the field. I’m not sure that Hamiton has the pace to do it but Sainz does and Perez shouldn’t be far off either.

That should still leave an opening for Albon. I’ll risk a small bet that he can hang on to his top six position.

2023 Las Vegas GP raceday tip: 1 point Alex Albon to finish in the top 6 @ 3.50 with Hills, Ladbrokes, Unibet

Points Finish

Twelve odds on shots for ten places. Sargeant at 1.95 makes some appeal but that really would be putting too many eggs in the Williams’ basket.

That is it for me. It’s been a good weekend so far and hopefully we can add to it later.

We are off to Abu Dhabi for the final race of the season next weekend.

-JamesPunt