2023 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Preview and Tips

What a weekend of racing lies ahead. The UK action is decent but the fare at Leopardstown this weekend is right out of the top drawer. We only managed one place last weekend, though with a more patient ride, Hurricane Bay might have won. Any News ran ok for a long way before tiring and Silver Hallmark ran no sort of race. Shanty Alley couldn’t dominate as he’d have liked and War Soldier found graded company too hot. Hopefully we can start February off with a flourish, check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Leopardstown DRF Saturday tips below.

1.20 – Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)

If they weren’t watering heavily at Leopardstown this week, we’d be racing on good ground. Instead, they’ve put half the River Liffey onto the track and the ground is yielding to soft. It is a track with exceptional drainage so even with all the watering, it will probably dry out to yielding or quicker during the day on Saturday. Horses that want middling ground will be fine, but anything that wants it properly soft or genuinely good will be goosed.

In this year’s opener at the Dublin Racing Festival a total of nine novices will go to post. The trip is 22f and course winner Good Land is a warm order at around 11/4. Barry Connell and Michael O’Sullivan have had a great campaign so far and this son of Blue Bresil hosed up over 20f in a maiden here last time. This represents a huge step up in class over two furlongs further and at the odds, he is probably best watched today.

UK Raider

One of the few UK raiders to make the short trip across the Irish Sea is Weveallbeencaught. The Twiston Davies clan team up with this son of Getaway and he landed a Cheltenham maiden on good to soft last time over 20f. His sole start in Graded company ended in a 10.5L defeat but that was his first ever run over timber so you couldn’t hold that against him. He showed he benefitted from the experience when winning that maiden and the form has been franked by Rock My Way. Odds of 11/2 look pretty generous.

The one that could go well at big odds is another last time out maiden winner. Deep Cave is trained by Henry De Bromhead and Blackmore rides. By Court Cave, this 5yo found just Absolute Notions too good when finishing a decent second on hurdling debut at Punchestown (19.5f yld). Davy Russell got there too soon and on his last start here (20f sft) Rachael Blackmore timed her challenge a lot better and got the job done, beating Lot of Joy by 0.5L.

It looked for a second like Deep Cove wasn’t going to go by the runner up when he came upsides but after having a little look, he stuck his head down and won going away. On that evidence, this extra 2f should suit and with plenty of these prominent racers, Blackmore should have something to aim at in the closing stages. Hopefully she can produce Deep Cave late to reward e/w support at odds of 20/1.

2023 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Tips: Deep Cave e/w @ 20/1

1.55 – Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)

Just eight runners in this G1 for the 4yos and six of them trained by Willie Mullins. Lossiemouth is long odds on after her 7L romp here over Xmas. She previously landed a Fairyhouse G2 by 4L and she is now unbeaten in three starts under rules. Her Leopardstown form hasn’t worked out yet but Comfort Zone, 6L behind her at Fairyhouse, has most definitely franked that win.

The horse that chased her home at this track in December, stablemate Gala Marceau, is the next best in the betting. Unlike Lossiemouth, she lacked a recent run going into their first meeting so theoretically, she has the potential to close the gap if stripping fitter.

It is double figure odds the remainder and it is hard to make a case for anything else winning bar the top two. Tekao is 14/1 but he was 10L behind Comfort Zone at Navan in November so he has it to do on that formline. So does Ascending, who was beaten by Tekao in a C&D maiden in December.

Take A Punt

It might be worth taking a punt that Willie has Cinsa fit for her Irish debut. By Gabynako’s sire, Tirwanako, this filly has had just one start. That came in the Auteuil race won by Lossiemouth (15f sft) and she came home in 4th, 12L behind the winner but only half a length off 3rd. In that race Cinsa sat in 2nd early behind Lossiemouth and she was far keener than ideal.

She actually rallied well in the closing stages, all things considered, and with that experience under her belt she could improve. The booking of Brian Hayes does suggest she is down the Mullins’ pecking order but it wouldn’t be the first time that one of his so called ‘lesser lights’ ran a nice race against more fancied stablemates. It’ll be a major shock if Lossiemouth doesn’t win but hopefully Cinsa can sneak some place money at odds of 40/1.

2023 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Tips: Cinsa e/w @ 40/1

2.30 – Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1)

Eight runners in the Irish Arkle and I cannot believe that Visionarian is 40/1. We backed him at silly odds here last time and he ran an absolutely massive race. It looked like he was going to win but Saint Roi just pulled out a bit more in the closing stages. It was still a clear career best by some distance and they were well clear of the likes of Fil Dor and Midnight Run. Fil Dor is 18/1 here, Saint Roi is 14s so why the hell is Visionarian 40s?

Peter Fahey’s charge was having his first run for almost three months in that race whereas Saint Roi had run just a month earlier so maybe, he just ran out of puff in the last 100 yards due to fitness. Appreciate It, Dysart Dynamo and El Fabiolo all made the running to win last time out, the latter two on their chasing debuts. On paper it looks like this will be run at a furious gallop and that should allow Keith Donoghue to sit in behind the likely leaders and hopefully, come with a challenge late.

Another area where Visionarian has an advantage is chasing experience. He has already had four runs over fences whereas four of the five market leaders have had just two or less. At this trip/speed jumping will be absolutely vital and I am hoping that those extra two chase starts will stand to Visionarian. There is no way he should be 40/1 and with trip, track and ground to suit, he is the e/w selection.

2023 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Tips: Visionarian e/w @ 40/1 NB

3.05 – Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1)

It’ll be exactly 41 days from the day of this race to the Cheltenham Gold Cup. That will be the primary target for the top two in the betting here, Galopin Des Champs and Stattler. The former is long odds on for this race (and for the big one in March) and I’d imagine Mullins is hoping for an all the way, unchallenged and easy win. I have my doubts about him staying 26f at Cheltenham, but 24f around Leopardstown on pretty okay ground should be within his capabilities.

Stattler had a hard race at Tramore on his comeback. He was beat a neck by Minella Indo on bottomless ground and the step up from 22f will help him. The Gold Cup in March is probably his main objective too and I doubt connections will want him to have another hard race before his seasonal target.

Definite Trier

One horse who is guaranteed to be doing his very best is Kemboy. Rachael Blackmore gets the leg up on the 2021 winner of this contest and this is his Cheltenham. He has finished 2nd on his last four starts, including here behind Conflated last time out. Now an 11yo, he clearly isn’t the horse he once was but even so, he had some decent sorts in behind him here last time (including Fury Road and Franco De Port). 14/1 looks a big price and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him finish 2nd again.

Fury Road was only 1.25L behind Kemboy last time. He was a G1 Novice winner here in 2021 and the 9yo should appreciate the slightly better ground today. Any Second Now ran a cracker in the Aintree Grand National last season and with a mark of 162, he surely won’t want a hike in the weights ahead of a probable repeat bid. The Big Dog looks well worth a crack at this level but whether he’s a Grade 1 chaser remains to be seen. He’s had some hard races already this season too.

Over A Cliff

I was sure our Cheltenham Gold Cup ante-post selection Franco De Port was going to run in the Thyestes. He instead is kept to G1 company and that has to be viewed as a plus. We backed him last time over today’s C&D and it was an extremely strange ride. I’m not sure how many pulls Danny Mullins took but even after those shenanigans, the son of Coastal Path ran on really well after the last and if the race was a furlong further, he’d have gone close to finishing ahead of Kemboy and Fury Road.

His previous two runs came in France on bottomless ground and I’m not sure he wants it that soft. Today’s conditions should be perfect and he showed last time out that he was capable of mixing it at this level and at this track. I’m convinced this horse has a G1 staying race in him at some point, and so is Willie Mullins judging by how he has been campaigned.

If he settles better than last time and jumps well, he is more than capable of beating at least four of these and if either of the top two flop, who knows, he might even sneak some e/w money. Given that he has 1.75L to find with Kemboy (14/1) and 0.75L to find with Fury Road (25/1), Franco De Port looks overpriced at 50s and he is the e/w selection.

2023 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Tips: Franco De Port e/w @ 50/1

3.40 – Handicap Hurdle (Grade B)

I’m going to keep faith with another horse we have backed in the past in this handicap hurdle. We were on Freedom To Dream in last season’s Martin Pipe (20f gd/sft) and he ran a huge race, beat just 4L behind Banbridge off a mark of 135. He warmed up for that with a more than decent effort in a G1 Novice here behind Minella Cocooner so he has run well at this track before.

Peter Fahey decided to go chasing with this lad this season but it hasn’t gone to plan. He ran okay to a point on his seasonal return behind Gerri Colombe but his jumping wasn’t great. It was even worse here last time out and he was pulled up. It is no surprise to see him returned to the smaller obstacles now and with Michael O’Sullivan’s claim, he is effectively 9lbs lower than he was at Cheltenham in March.

This step up in trip should suit the son of Secret Singer and over 3 miles, his jumping won’t be under as much pressure as it would be over a shorter distance. Now, it could be that Fahey is weighing up a return trip to the Martin Pipe and he’s giving O’Sullivan a sighter ahead of that race. However, if he does try and he is in good form, there is no way he should be a 20/1 shot given how well treated he is. There are clear risks involved but at the odds, a small e/w interest is justified.

2023 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Tips: Freedom To Dream e/w @ 20/1 (5 places)

4.10 – Sandyford Handicap Chase (Grade B)

We backed Barnacullia last time out at Navan but he wasn’t off a yard. I was hoping they were there to exploit his lower hurdles mark but it wasn’t to be. He has better form over the bigger obstacles but my record when tipping Mulvany horses has nosedived in the last few months so I am going to look elsewhere for some e/w value. Watch him piss in now!

Against my better judgement, Espion Du Chenet is the e/w pick. Cian Quirke again takes off 7lbs so he is effectively in off 122 today, 5lbs lower than he was when last winning at Punchestown. We backed him at big odds last time and for a fleeting moment or two, it looked like we were home for place money. However, Quirke had given him too much to do and in the end, his effort petered out and he finished 5th, 13L behind the winner Final Orders.

10lbs Swing

He was getting 8lbs from the winner that day and this time he is getting 18lbs, a 10lb swing. Grange Walk finished less than a length ahead of Louise Lyons’ charge in that contest and he is 12/1 here yet Espion can be backed at 25s. Rebel Gold looks to be on a high mark, Get My Drift has no handicap chase experience and A Wave Of The Sea is dropping hugely in trip. Espion Du Chenet has less questions to answer than a few and at odds of 25/1, hopefully Quirke can time his challenge better and steer his mount into the places.

2023 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Tips: Espion Du Chenet e/w @ 25/1 (4 places) NAP

-DaveStevos

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