2023 Leopardstown Guineas Trials Meeting Tips – DS
2023 Leopardstown Guineas Trials Preview and Tips
March was truly a ‘mensis horribilis’ but April marked a new beginning. Our dreadful winnerless run finally ended by Vadream at 12s and a nice place for Maysong at 25s. Havana Prince (5th) and Savvy Victory were also arguably a shade unlucky not to place but our Lincoln bets were beaten fair and square. Now, the focus switches to Dublin where we have an excellent card of flat racing on Sunday. Dave Stevos’ 2023 Leopardstown Guineas Trials previews and tips are below.
2.00 – Flat Is Back Fillies’ Maiden (3yo)
Of those with form in the book, Toistiun and Bold As Love are the only ones with form on ground as taxing as it will be at Leopardstown today. The latter horse, by Deep Impact, was a good 2nd on soft here over 7f in a backend maiden and as Drumroll demonstrated at Navan in midweek, these Deep Impact’s seem to handle testing ground well. Jim Bolger’s charge, Toistiun, was 3rd on bog like ground at the Curragh last week (7f) and she shaped like a mile would suit. Those two look to be by far the most likely winners on form.
The one I’ll take a small chance on at monstrous odds is Kitty McFee. Owned by DJ Deer, this filly is trained by John O’Donoghue in John Oxx’s old yard. O’Donoghue had a decent season in 2022 and this horse is bred to enjoy testing ground. She is by a top sire in Lope De Vega and he has produced plenty of mudlarks down through the years. Her dam, Titi Makfi, has won on soft and two of her half siblings had winning or placed form on bottomless ground.
The booking of Ronnie Whelan is a positive (1/22 with 8 top 4 finishes for this yard) and while her draw could admittedly be better, at least this is a mile race so they’ll have time to sort themselves out before they hit the first bend. Kitty McFee most definitely isn’t one for maximum stakes but if any of the outsiders are going to make an impression, she looks the most likely candidate. At 66/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
2023 LEOPARDSTOWN GUINEAS TRIALS TIP: KITTY MCFEE E/W @ 66/1
2.35 – 2000 Guineas Trial Stakes (Group 3)
Just seven run here and Hans Anderson heads the market. The son of Frankel is 1/4 so far, that win coming on good ground at the Curragh. He has already placed in G2 company, also on good ground, but his two runs on soft have resulted in defeat. That being said, this is not the strongest ever renewal of this race on paper and he might just have the class to get away with the conditions. However, would I be lumping on a horse with his profile at 4/5? No chance.
With bookies only paying two places, it makes sense to swerve this race. There are just too many unknowns on this ground. Bold Discovery ran well on yielding here in October but her win came on much faster ground. Caracci was beaten on soft on debut and the JJ Murphy pair have just one run apiece at Dundalk. Eyeeye could potentially outrun her odds but like I said, with just two places on offer I am more than happy to sit firmly on the fence. No bet.
2023 Leopardstown Guineas Trials Tip: No Bet
3.10 – 1000 Guineas Trial Stakes (Group 3)
With 13 fillies going to post, this is a cracker of a race. Never Ending Story is rated 103 after soft ground defeats at Longchamp (8f) and the Curragh (7f) on her final two runs of last season. They were both in G1 company and she saw the mile out pretty well last time at Longchamp despite only finishing 3rd. In conditions like this, that proven stamina could turn out to be a huge asset.
Zarinsk signed off last season with a pillar to post C&D win on soft. The runner up, Library, didn’t do much for the form and the 4th Clever and Cool, 3.5L behind, reopposes here today. After she won her first race on good to yielding Ger Lyons said she’d be better on nicer ground so even though she has soft ground winning form, it remains to be seen if she’ll be as effective on heavy. The same sentiment applies to Dame Kiri, a maiden winner on soft who is by Justify, a sire yet to have a heavy ground runner on these shores.
Matilda Overpriced
Matilda Picotte’s sire, Sioux Nation, has also yet to have a winner on heavy but he has had more than one run well on that sort of ground. This fast filly capped off a fine 2yo campaign with a scorching Listed win at Newmarket, gaining a deserved success after some superb efforts behind the likes of Meditate and Statuette. On form, she is by far the most overpriced of the market principals.
She ran a massive race in the G2 Lowther at York on quick ground but her Newmarket win came on good to soft and she has run well on all three previous attempts on yielding. Her dam enjoyed soft ground but was beaten on both tries on heavy. Kieran Cotter’s filly is unraced beyond 6f but there is plenty of hope that she’ll stay at least 7f in her pedigree. It is going to be a big ask on bottomless ground on her first run of the season but if she does stay, the world is her oyster.
Outside Chance
The one I’ll take a punt on at a price is the Jim Bolger trained Clever and Cool. Bolger’s horses have returned in super form and this daughter of Vocalised will absolutely relish these attritional conditions. As was mentioned earlier, she has a few lengths to find with Zarinsk on their meeting here in September. The ground probably wasn’t soft enough on her next three runs and this will be her first time on heavy since she won on debut at Cork.
Vocalised’s progeny tend to love the muck and this filly is no exception. She is actually out of a Whipper mare who was best on good ground but the dam’s full brother was a two time heavy ground winner for Bolger. Do I think this filly is going to go on and win the Guineas after this? No, but she won first time up last season on similar ground to this and in the hope that first time out is the time to catch her, Clever and Cool is the e/w selection.
2023 Leopardstown Guineas Trials Tip: Clever And Cool e/w @ 22/1 (4 places)
3.45 – Ballysax Stakes (Group 3)
Frustratingly, just seven runners and with no bookies offering extra places, it’ll be a no bet race. If you can get on for three places, White Birch is an interesting contender. By Ulysses, he shaped as though this sort of trip on heavy would be ideal on his debut at Naas.
He showed he had a bit of toe when landing a 7f heat at Dundalk by 6L in October and the booking of Shane Foley indicates that a decent run is expected. Whether he’ll be good enough to beat enough of the O’Brien battalion to get second is the worry and for today, he is best watched.
2023 Leopardstown Guineas Trials Tip: No Bet
4.55 – 8f Handicap (50-85)
Nothing appeals in the 3yo handicap but I do like one at a nice price in this heat. Marvelosa has been running ok in maiden company at Dundalk throughout the winter and she now makes her handicap debut off a mark of 74. She has had just two runs on the grass and she shaped with clear promise on both occasions. At the Curragh (12f gd), she ran a lovely race on her second start, finishing 4th, 4.5L behind the winner Fennela.
It was another fine effort on her next turf run at Listowel. This time, on soft ground, she again finished a decent 4th, 3L behind White Caviar. She won a handicap off 81 on her next start and she is now rated 90. This will be Marvelosa’s first run on testing ground since and the fact we know that she stays further than a mile is a positive given the conditions. Both of Richard O’Brien’s last two runners finished 2nd so he has them in good form and as we saw at Listowel, this filly goes well fresh. From a favourable draw in stall 4, hopefully Ben Coen can steer Marvelosa into the money.
2023 Leopardstown Guineas Trials Tip: Marvelosa e/w @ 16/1 (4 places) nb
5.30 – 8f Handicap (47-70)
If he can repeat the form he showed when 3rd at Sligo, Wayne R Walker is capable of winning this. Trained and owned by Donal Kinsella, this son of Outstrip shaped very nicely on his first run of the season last weekend at the Curragh (8f sft/hvy). He finished 7th of 19, beat 9.5L behind Razdan, but he should be a lot sharper now with that outing under his belt.
The day we backed him at Sligo the ground was officially described as yielding. However, it was most certainly a lot softer than that because it absolutely lashed down prior to racing. Wayne R Walker ran two more lovely races in handicaps at the Curragh (8f gd) and Tipperary (9f gd) after that Sligo run before a disappointing effort on his last run of the season at Punchestown.
Kinsella also has this horse entered up here over 9f next week so presumably the plan is to win this and then possibly claim off him on Wednesday. Niall McCullagh is on board this afternoon and he had a sighter on him last time out. He is in off a mark of 48 here, 5lbs lower than for that 2L Sligo defeat and if he strips fitter for his comeback, Wayne R Walker can run into the money at odds of 14/1.
