2023 Lingfield and Ascot Saturday Preview & Tips – DS
2023 Lingfield and Ascot Saturday Preview
Finally, a place at Chester on Friday. Certain Lad landed the e/w money in 3rd at 14/1 but that was it. Witch Hunter, who we backed on his last two turf starts, finished 3rd at 50/1 and that just about sums up the week. Thankfully, we are back on more conventional tracks tomorrow, check out our 2023 Lingfield and Ascot Saturday tips below.
1.30 Ascot – Peroni Handicap (Class 3)
A class 3, 12f handicap kicks off proceedings at Ascot on Saturday. The ground is soft, heavy in places so it is going to be a slog. The top two in the betting, Nathanael Greene and Sir Rumi, both handle it but the former horse lacks a recent run. In conditions like this, Sir Rumi’s fitness edge may well prove to be decisive. The next three in the market all would likely prefer better ground so at 14/1, maybe Rhythmic Intent could go well.
Trained by Stuart Williams, long time followers might remember backing this horse in the 2020 November Handicap at Doncaster (12f sft). He was a fast finishing second at 28/1 and that testing ground seems to bring the best out of him. His last win came on good to firm over 14f in September 2021 but his other three victories all came on ground with soft in the description.
He ran well on his sole previous visit to Ascot on unsuitably quick ground. We only saw him twice last season and he was a shade below form on his return at Epsom. However, that 10f trip was a tad sharp and this test will suit much better. He should be fit now, he is 2lbs below his last winning mark and at 14/1, hopefully Rhythmic Intent runs into the money.
2023 Lingfield and Ascot Saturday Tip: Rhythmic Intent e/w @ 14/1
1.50 Lingfield – Fitzdares Handicap (Class 5)
A good old Class 5 handicap on a Saturday. 7f is the trip and a dozen are due to line up in the stalls. The one I’ll take a chance on at 25/1 is Watermelon Sugar. Trained by Chelsea Banham, Joey Haynes rides and though he ran poorly last time at Wolverhampton, his previous run over 5f here was eyecatching.
Running off 75, Watermelon Sugar was pulling double as they turned into the straight but he got absolutely no luck in running. Once in the clear Haynes gave him a squeeze and while the race was more or less over at that stage, he ran on strongly and finished around 2.5L behind the winner Lihou.
He didn’t produce his best last time back up at 6f next time at Wolves but on his run over 6f there in December, this 7f trip should suit. When he won his four races at 6f for Archie Watson he made all but more patient tactics seem to suit him too. If he can get luck in running this time, Watermelon Sugar could go close at odds of 25/1.
2023 Lingfield and Ascot Saturday Tip: Watermelon Sugar e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)
2.05 Ascot – Peroni EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2)
Sly Madam has run twice on soft ground this season and they were close to career best efforts. On her second run of the campaign she hacked up at Windsor (8f sft) off 77. 10f and good ground conspired against her next time at Brighton but she soon regained form returned to testing conditions at Nottingham (8.5f sft).
Running off 84, the daughter of Sixties Icon found just Belhaven too good. She finished a neck in front of Farrh To Shy and on this ground, I’d expect her to uphold that form. Belhaven won the race by 3.5L but Sheena West’s charge is now effectively 10lbs better off with that rival thanks to William Carver’s 3lbs claim. The softer the ground, the better for her and at 20/1, Sly Madam looks well worth chancing e/w.
2023 Lingfield and Ascot Saturday Tip: Sly Madam e/w @ 20/1 NB (4 places)
2.25 Lingfield – Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3)
The top four in the betting are well clear on ratings here. Sacred brings rock solid G1 and G2 form into the race and she goes well fresh. Ryan Moore looks a notable booking. Sandrine is another one with form at the top table and Balding and Murphy are in flying form at the moment. She has won on the all weather at Kempton but she needed a few runs to hit top form last term.
Queen Aminatu didn’t enjoy what was very taxing, tacky ground at the Curragh last time. She had previously reeled off a hat trick of a/w wins, including one here, and though she is rated 6lbs lower than Sacred, she could be a huge danger under William Buick. White Moonlight represents 1000 Guineas winning trainer Saeed Bin Suroor. She has been in Dubai and may be best watched on her return to action.
Huge Price
At a huge price, Candle Of Hope could sneak into the frame. She ran a blinder over this C&D in a Listed heat on her seasonal bow. She was squeezed out at a crucial time but was still only beat less than 2L. Heavy ground was no good to her at Goodwood a week ago and she must still be in good form if Hughes is running her again this soon.
It is probably a bit early in the season to be backing 3yos against the older horses but with the top two lacking a recent run and doubts about some of the others, maybe she can take advantage and nick some more precious black type. The 12lbs 3yo allowance gives her an outside place chance on the figures, hopefully she can hit the frame at odds of 66/1.
2023 Lingfield and Ascot Saturday Tip: Candle Of Hope e/w @ 66/1
2.40 Ascot – Peroni Victoria Cup Handicap (Heritage)
Soft ground, 7f, Ascot, Heritage Handicap. It can only mean one thing…Ropey Guest is back. This horse may be hard to win with but he has been some money-spinner for us. We’ve been backing this horse at silly odds ever since his 2yo days and he has rarely let us down. Last season, he placed three or four times for us at odds ranging from 16s to 40s and off a career low mark of 90, I’m not going to abandon him now.
In his 2yo days this son of Cable Bay loved the muck. He only got soft ground once last year and he ran a cracker off 92 over a mile at Newmarket. Previous to that he was beat 0.5L over this C&D off 92 so he is handicapped to go close again. Last season he was 5th in this race on good ground off 93, beat 4L by Vafortino. He is now 13lbs better off with that rival but unlike him, he will relish the testing ground.
Ropey ran a cracker in this race in 2021 too on his seasonal return. That day the ground was soft and he was only beat 2.25L off a mark of 98. It is about time that Ropey Guest added to his paltry return of two career wins, hopefully today is the day at odds of 28/1.
2023 Lingfield and Ascot Saturday Tip: Ropey Guest e/w @ 28/1 (6 places) NAP
3.00 Lingfield – Oaks Trial Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)
Nine runners but on what we have seen so far, only six have a realistic chance of winning. Unfortunately, the six that have chances are all 11/1 or shorter. Be Happy is 15/8 for Ballydoyle and if she handles the surface, she’ll probably be hard to beat. Bright Diamond ran very well in a G1 on her last start of 2022 and she could be the value of the market leaders at 11/2. With an upset unlikely, this is a race we’ll swerve. No bet.
2023 Lingfield and Ascot Saturday Tip: No Bet
3.15 Haydock – Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Premier)
Just when you thought the jumps was finished…The feature at Haydock is the Swinton Handicap Hurdle and we have a big field of 17. The ground is good to soft right now but the forecast is warm and dry so those looking for faster conditions should be pretty happy. It has been tough this season for those trainers who have been lining up their horses for ‘Spring Ground’ at the various festivals only for it to come up soft.
I’d imagine Donald McCain was hoping for good ground when he sent Fruit N Nut to Aintree. On his last good ground start he won a decent race at Newbury (16.5f gd) and though he did win his bumpers on softer ground, the son of Casamento seems much more at home on sounder surfaces. His form figures on ground with good in the description over timber read 11331 and he is only 2lbs higher than he was when last winning at Newbury.
Champion jockey Brian Hughes is back on board and he has won four times on this horse. After he won at Newbury Theo Gillard said ‘a long straight over two miles suits’ and he’ll have that at Haydock. He meets Black Poppy off identical terms as at Newbury where he had 1.75L to spare yet that horse is 16s and Fruit N Nut is 25s. Nibiru is another one entitled to respect on this ground but at 25/1, McCain’s horse is the e/w selection.
2023 Lingfield and Ascot Saturday Tip: Fruit N Nut e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)
3.35 Lingfield – Derby Trial Stakes (Listed)
Maybe Waipiro can outrun his odds of 16/1 here. Trained by Ed Walker, this son of Australia shaped well enough on his only previous a/w start at Kempton over an inadequate trip of 10f. He stayed on well for 6th and though he was 10L behind the winner, it was an encouraging debut.
At Newmarket on his first 3yo start he confirmed that promise. He was sent off at 25/1 but he relished the step up to 10f and won going away by 3.5L. The horse he beat into 2nd is rated 90 so it is solid form and Walker’s charge is well drawn for a front runner in stall 2.
Looking at how he finished off his race the last day, 12f should suit him well. He’s a half to a 12f flat/19f hurdle winner and his sire is renowned as a stamina influence. I’d be more confident of a big run if this race was being run on good ground but if he takes to the surface, Waipiro can hopefully go well for e/w backers at odds of 16/1.
