2023 Melbourne Cup Ante-Post Tip – DS
2023 Melbourne Cup Ante-Post Tip
The Breeders’ Cup is at the forefront of most European racing fans’ minds right now but the 2023 Melbourne Cup is just a couple of days later. Our racing analyst Dave Stevos has been studying Flemington’s blue riband race this evening and he is keen on the prospects of a 66/1 outsider. We were out of luck in last year’s race, fingers crossed for a more competitive run this time.
04.00 Flemington – 2023 Melbourne Cup (Grade 1)
Damien Oliver has won the race that stops a nation three times and he has his final ever ride in the race on Alenquer. Trained by Mick Moroney, the trainer of the 2000 Melbourne Cup winner Brew, this horse will be familiar to UK racing fans.
Formerly trained by William Haggas, his last win came at the Curragh in May 2022. That victory came in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup (10f gd) and he had the likes of High Definition (116), State of Rest (120) and Lord North (120) in behind. It was his fourth stakes win, three of which have come at 10f, but he also won a G2 at Ascot on heavy over 12f.
Slow Start Down Under
After finishing a respectable 9th in the 2022 Arc, Alenquer headed to his new stable Down Under. He made his reappearance in March of this year at Moonee Valley (8f gd) and finished last, just like he did on his second start for new connections at Randwick (10f sft). Moroney decided to go back to the drawing board and Alenquer has been slowly rediscovering his form since returning from a five month break at Caulfield (9f gd) in September.
He attempted to make all in that G1 but he just didn’t have the pace over that 9f trip. However, he finished off his race pretty well and he was only 4.75L behind the winner Alligator Blood. Next time, over a furlong further at the same track, he was ridden a lot more patiently. The trip was inadequate and he made his challenge wide, so he did well to run on late for fifth, 6l or so behind Alligator Blood.
Trouble In Running
Alenquer was gelded after that run and he had his final prep for the big one in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Dropped out the back by Damien Oliver, he was still travelling pretty sweetly turning in. Oliver tried to switch wide but he met trouble on the home turn and he almost had to stop riding. 150m from home Alenquer was stone last of 14, when he hit the line he was 9th, just 3.5L behind the winner Cleveland.
Damien Oliver was very easy on his mount in the closing stages, which makes it an even better run. It was a clear sign of a return to form and the way he ran through the line suggested that this 16f trip could be within his compass. It was an absolutely perfect prep run and the horse will have gained plenty of confidence from the way he was passing rivals in the closing stages.
Nice Ground
It looks like the ground is going to be decent for the 2023 Melbourne Cup, which is ideal. We don’t know the draw yet but I reckon this horse is going to be dropped out early and produced late, so where he starts from isn’t hugely important.
The trip is the big unknown but Alderflug is a big stamina influence and he has sired a 3 mile G2 winner over hurdles (Maximillian). As mentioned earlier, trainer and jockey both know what it takes to win this race and that also has to rate as a big plus.
He has to give 4lbs to the 3/1 fav Vauban but on his best form, he should be well up to that task. Given the likely hold up tactics, a degree of luck will be required but if Damien Oliver can get his mount settled somewhere around rear-mid division and he gets a clear run in the straight, Alenquer has the ability to run into a place, at the very least, at odds of 66/1.
