2023 Mexico GP Raceday Preview & Tips – JP
2023 Mexico GP Raceday Preview
Now, it’s time for James Punt’s 2023 Mexico GP Raceday preview. We were out of luck in qualifying where it was a surprise 1-2 for the Ferraris of Leclerc and Sainz.
2023 Mexico GP Raceday Update
What was going on in qualifying? As bizarre a session as you are likely to see in the dry. There was no rhyme nor reason for what panned out.
The combination of soft tyres, a high track temperature and the fact that we are racing at 2300 meters above sea level with the cars trying to generate some downforce with big wings may be to blame.
It seems that getting the tyres into the right window was very hit and miss. The sweet spot was a moving target. One minute Red Bull had it, the next Mercedes had it and at the very death, it fell into Ferrari’s lap.
Mixed up Grid
We are left with a mixed up grid and a few head scratchers to ponder. We are likely to have seen the last of the soft tyres this weekend. They will be no good for more than trying to set the fastest lap at the death, as Russell did last year. Racing on the hards and medium tyres should settle things down.
The start of this race sees the longest run into the first corner and it is not ideal to be starting from pole. The cars behind can really get the benefit of a two from the car in front and for the pole sitter, they are just punching a hole for those behind. The first sequence of corners at the end of the straight invites late braking and sometimes over ambitious moves which can end in tears.
Red Bull
Verstappen was fastest in every session until qualifying and he looked to have it under control until Q3 when he just overcooked his tyres. They had gone by the time he got to Q3.
He starts from third and as we have seen this year, starting from off the pole makes little difference. Sergio Perez starts from fifth place, which for him, is a decent result. Their long run pace was good in practice and Verstappen remains a firm favourite at 1.25 to win.
Perez has outqualified the two Mercedes and hopefully he can finish ahead of them. Verstappen needs to avoid any first lap shenanigans and use the cars pace to win, with the same patient approach he showed in Texas last weekend.
One problem for Verstappen is that he only has one set of medium tyres and that limits his strategic options.
Ferrari
Twenty two poles converted into just five race wins for Leclerc. That doesn’t bode well for his chances today.
It is unusual for a team to get their drivers on the front row of the grid, but not really know how. Leclerc and Sainz were as confused as everyone else. They did not think they were in the frame at all.
Their long run pace in practice wasn’t great and their form throughout the year has been to drop back over a race distance due to poor tyre deg. It is hard to see why that will not be the case once again. Tyre wear is said to have been low so far this weekend which may help Ferrari from dropping too much.
Sainz started and finished fourth last weekend, while Leclerc was put on a strange strategy and dropped from pole to sixth in the race.
Alpha Tauri
One of the real head scratchers is that Daniel Ricciardo qualified in fourth place, by far the team’s best qualifying result this season.
Riccardo has been one of the most consistent drivers of the weekend, being top 9 in every session. It seems the strange alchemy that is this circuit has played to whatever strengths Ricciardo and his car have. It is fair to say that he is out of position but his consistency so far says that he has every chance of finishing in the points.
Tsunoda was also putting in good times in practice and he will be getting all sweary at having to take a new power unit and to start nineteenth. He could be able to employ a long first stint strategy to make up places and he could make some good progress.
Merecedes
I’ve backed the wrong horse this weekend. Russell (and Hamilton) have shown flashes of great pace at times, but Hamilton says that he has no idea how the car is going to behave from one session to the next. That doesn’t really help us get a handle on their prospects, but their usual pattern on race weekends is to have a faster race car than qualifier.
Russell has qualified eighth twice before in 2023 and finished both GPs in fifth. Something similar would be no surprise. Their long run pace looked OK on Friday and they will look to have Ricciardo and maybe a falling Ferrari or two in their sights.
McLaren
It has been a horrible weekend for McLaren. It looked good to start with. Norris right in the mix, but in trying to save a set of soft tyres in Q1, he made a mistake and then his final attempt was ruined by a yellow flag. They gambled and lost. Piastri qualified seventh but he hasn’t really been on it as he gets used to this strange track.
Norris started from eighteenth place here in 2021 and finished tenth. Gasly came from twentieth to finish tenth in 2018 and Alonso came from eighteenth to finish tenth in 2017, so it can be done, despite this not being a great ‘come from behind’ track.
Alfa Romeo
Both cars into Q3 for only the second time this season. It all went tits up for them off the line in Hungary the first time, so hopefully they won’t trip up again.
Bottas sat out FP1 but he has been top nine ever since. Zhou was struggling a bit but he has gradually dialled things in and they are looking at their second double points finish from their last three races.
Alpine
Had looked OK in practice on Friday, but they were dreadful in FP3 and qualifying. They have had at least one car home in the points in six of the last seven races and maybe Gasly can have his fourth points finish in Mexico City. There are cars ahead of him, who he would normally beat so he is in with a shout, but with Alpine, you never really know.
Haas
Hulkenberg starts twelfth, Magnussen a more usual sixteenth. Tyre deg has not been a big issue this weekend, outside of the softs, so their major weakness may not be as cruelly exposed here as at some circuits, but they remain hard to fancy.
Aston Martin
Their downgrade introduced in Texas is still wreaking havoc on the Aston Martin. Alonso has had two telltale spins and Stroll failed to get out of Q1 for the sixth race in a row. Their long run pace was not good on Friday and Alonso may miss out on points for the second time this season, and the second time in a row.
Williams
A mystery this weekend. Albon went from pole position contender to only just making Q2. He was second fastest in two practice sessions but fourteenth in the other two timed sessions.
Sergeant’s fortuitous points finish last week is but a distant memory as he could not even set a time in qualifying yesterday. Albon was not happy about having a lap time deleted for track limits, he thought he was in, but the car has good pace and don’t write him off, even from fourteenth place.
Summary
After yesterday’s very strange qualifying session it is hard to know what to expect. A return to normality over a race distance? Hopefully. The soft tyres seem to be the confounding factor and they should only come into play late in the race if at all.
There have been a few drivers who have performed well all weekend and they are the ones I will concentrate on. Bottas, Ricciardo and, to a lesser degree, Albon.
This is a track where overtaking is quite hard despite the long straight. It is not a great come from behind track and track position is important.
2023 Mexico GP RaceDay Bets
The Alpha Tauri just looks the better car on this track. But for his power unit penalty, Tsunoda would be starting nearer tenth than twentieth. He will not now be starting last as Sargeant has a bigger penalty and Stroll now has to start from the pits after Aston Martin basically rebuilt his car with different floor, side pods, wings, the lot.
Clearly, they have no clue about their new car and have retreated to an older spec which Stroll will not have driven at all this weekend. It’s a bit of a shambles.
2023 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to beat Lance Stroll @ 1.87 with Unibet
Ricciardo definitely has track position, starting fourth to Norris’ eighteenth. Norris has the faster car, but not by that much here, and he will do well to make the top 10. Ricciardo will be looking to hold on to a top 8 at least.
2023 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Ricciardo to beat Lando Norris @ 1.70 with Livescorebet
The Finn has been top nine in all three of his sessions. Indeed, his ninth place in qualifying was his worst position.
The Alfa Romeo’s finishing position tends to be better than its starting position and Bottas has a good track record here, only once outside of the top 10 in his seven races. He even managed it for Alfa Romeo last year. He loves a low grip, smooth track surface and he hast just that here.
2023 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Bottas to finish in the points @ 2.75 with BET365
Hopefully Albon can find the pace that took him to second place in FP1 and FP3. Even the hapless Sargeant reached eleventh place in FP3, which does suggest there is points scoring potential in the car. Having to start from fourteenth is the biggest worry but he is worth a modest bet.
