2023 Miami GP Betting Preview

The Azerbaijan GP went well for James Punt and he is back in action this weekend at the 2023 Miami GP. He has a bumper, team by team outright betting preview, check it out below.

2023 Miami GP

The Azerbaijan GP was a bit of a damp squib for a change but at least we had a nice few winners, if still littered with some near misses. The teams have packed up and now head to the USA and the second running of the Miami GP. It must be said that last year’s inaugural Miami GP was not great. The track left a lot be desired, not least the tarmac used to surface it.

It is a ‘street circuit’ albeit mostly running through a car park, featuring a long straight and another long flat out section, along with 19 corners. It is the end of the second sector which really lets the track down. There are six tight corners in a very short piece of track and it is a bit micky mouse, ruining the flow of the track.

Changes

There have been some changes made both on and off track for the 2023 Miami GP. The race is aimed at relieving rich US sports fans of as much cash as possible and the mega rich VIP’s felt a bit ripped off last year. The facilities were said to be poor and cramped so the paddock area has been expanded. The teams motor homes will now be housed inside the stadium.

A new hospitality building has been erected to give yet more eye wateringly expensive ‘experiences’. That is what this race is about. The ‘fan experience’. Not the racing, just providing somewhere for those who want to flash the cash to do just that.

Resurfaced Track

More importantly the track has been resurfaced. Herman Tilke has been brought in to reprofile the kerbs to promote closer racing and overtaking. So we might get better racing, but the track still looks a bit naff to be honest.

Last year the race was won by Max Verstappen after Charles Leclerc had started from pole position. The Ferrari was eating the medium compound tyres but with Perez suffering a loss of power he was unable to pass the two Ferraris in second and third. It is hard to read too much into just one race at the venue but the lay out is not unlike Albert Park in its demands.

2023 Miami GP Team-by-Team Form

Red Bull

The Constructor’s Championship may be all but over already, but there is just six points between the two Red Bull drivers. At some point that is going to get toxic, but with nineteen races still to go, that time is some way off.

Sergio Perez confirmed his street racing prowess in Baku, winning the sprint race and Grand Prix. He also won the other street race of the season in Jeddah. Albert Park is loosely called a street circuit but it is, like this one, a faux street circuit. There is nothing to suggest that one of the two Red Bull drivers will not win this race come Sunday.

The team introduced a new cooling package in Baku and a small side pod change has helped reduce drag. The fastest car got a bit faster and cooling improved in time for the summer races.

Aston Martin

They retained their second place in the Constructor’s Championship. Alonso wasn’t quite able to score his fourth consecutive podium finish in Baku but he was only 0.8 seconds away from doing so. He is likely to be close again.

They suffered with a DRS problem in Baku and while they eventually found a solution in the form of a lubricating spray, it will be worth watching to see if that problem re-emerges. With the Aston, Ferrari and Mercedes fight so close, they cannot afford any problems.

It seems their DRS actuator, the device that physically opens the slot on the wing, wasn’t quite strong enough to deal with the very high forces on the rear wing on the long straight at Baku. There is another long straight here, so there is potential for more problems, in qualifying at least, when the speed is at its highest.

Mercedes

Will be hoping the comparisons with Albert Park will extend to the results. They qualified 2nd and 3rd there, flattered a little by Perez’ woes, but Hamilton finished second in what was not a great race form guide wise. They are in the very tight battle between Aston Martin, Ferrari and themselves.

Was their good performance at Albert Park track specific? It may have been. The resurfaced track was smooth and allowed them to run a bit lower, increasing downforce. We don’t know what the track surface will be like here after the resurfacing.

Mercedes’ car has some potential but it seems very dependent on being able to get the ride height right. Too high and they lose downforce, but they can only run low if the track is nice and smooth with few bumps. The state of the track after resurfacing is particularly important for Mercedes.

Ferrari

Showed better pace in Baku and it was a track that should have suited them. Carlos Sainz was struggling and had no confidence in his car. That will be a worry for him as his teammate qualified on pole position in both qualifying sessions and scored a podium finish.

Upgrades are expected to arrive for this race. Their one lap pace is getting there and Leclerc is a live contender for pole position, but in the race, they still look to be about 0.5 seconds off the Red Bulls’ pace.

The upgrades are unlikely to cover that gap unless it can solve their higher tyre deg problem at a stroke. The Ferrari power unit is said to be the best in the field right now and that will help them in the fast sectors here. Best of the rest again? Probably.

McLaren

They are leading up what looks like the third division. They introduced their first upgrade package of the year in Baku and it worked but was only worth a couple of tenths. McLaren now have the car they should have started the season with but it is only good enough to be fighting for 9th and 10th unless the four teams ahead have problems.

Norris was reasonably optimistic that Miami should be more suited to the upgraded McLaren but he is not expecting anything more than a modest improvement. Straight line speed remains a problem and this track doesn’t look a great fit for even the upgraded car.

Alpine

Also had an upgrade for Baku and the team said it was working. It was hard to tell as they had a hellish weekend. Gasly missed most of the only free practice sessions after his car caught fire, he then crashed in qualifying and started the GP at the back of the grid. He was 19th in the Sprint race qualifying.

The plank on Ocon’s car had suffered excessive wear and the car’s set up had to be changed in Parc Ferme, meaning he had to start from the pit lane on Sunday. The races were a bit better, but they failed to score a single point and this season has been a disaster so far.

Alpine are under pressure to deliver a competent performance and they will be keen to get plenty of laps in the three free practice sessions. The mechanics had a very hard weekend in Baku, changing power units, gear boxes, repairing fire and crash damage. It was then straight on a 14 hour flight to Miami and a nice bit of jet lag.

Questionable Upgrade Timing

The wisdom of, or lack of, introducing a significant upgrade in a sprint race weekend was questionable and they have to nail this weekend if they are to move forward and have any hope of hitting their target for the season.

They have another, smaller upgrade coming for this weekend and the one bit of good news was that the new floor worked as expected, or a little better, so factory to track correlation is working as well as last year.

I remain optimistic of Alpine hitting the sweet spot sometime soon, but it is wise to wait and see where they are after practice this weekend.

Haas

The home team here, but the Americans are unlikely to be getting behind them. They like winners and Haas are not winners. They struggled in Baku, even with Hulkenberg who had been quite impressive in the opening three races. With McLaren having made a modest step forward with their Baku upgrade, getting points for the bottom four teams has just got tougher.

Alfa Romeo

Started the season looking OK, scoring an 8th place in Bahrain, but apart from a very lucky 9th for Zhou in Melbourne, they have looked very poor. They seem more likely to be fighting for last place than for points.

Alpha Tauri

Showed flashes of better performance in Baku but ultimately ended up empty handed. Nick De Vries looks out of his depth, it must be said, and if Tsunoda is your best driver, you have a talent problem. The team’s future is open to question and long-time team boss, Franz Tost, is to stand down at the end of the season, being replaced by Ferrari’s Laurent Mekies.

They have scored a point in the last two races and to be fair on Tsunoda, his finishing positions of 11/11/10/10 are probably as good as the car deserves, if not better. The new floor which was introduced in Melbourne is said to have improved performance.

Williams

Their slippy car will enjoy the long straight and flat out part of sector two. Albon qualified 8th at Albert Park and their cars one lap pace in Baku was decent, but the race not so much and there are enough corners here to give them a problem.

2023 Miami GP: The Weather Forecast

There has been some weird weather in and around Miami in recent weeks. Parts of the track were under water a couple of weeks ago after heavy rain caused flooding. The following week saw a tornado a few miles away. Hopefully this week will see neither, but there is a threat of some wet stuff.

Friday’s two practice sessions will be held in warm and sunny conditions with temperatures reaching 30 degrees and no rain. For Saturday the temperatures remain at 30 degrees, but there is a 25% – 40% chance of a thunderstorm. These are very localised and hard to forecast.

For race day on Sunday the weather is expected to turn cloudier, breezy and there is an 60% chance of rain in the afternoon. That is not a definitive ‘it is going to rain’ forecast, but there is a reasonable chance.

Ante Post Selections

With only having had one race here in the past and with the track having been tweaked and resurfaced, at least partially, it is wise to be cautious and hold fire until we have more information about the changes and indeed, the weather forecast. Ferrari have their first upgrade of the season and again, we will have a better idea of how that has worked after free practice.

Red Bull go into the 2023 Miami GP as the 1.14 favourites to win the race, which is very fair. Verstappen is the 1.50 favourite to be the winning driver. Perez is second favourite at 4.20 and on a street circuit that seems generous. But is it real a street circuit? Not in my book.

We have four real street tracks. Baku, Monaco, Singapore and Jeddah, and even that one is marginal. Montreal, Melbourne and Miami are, at best, hybrid street/purpose built racetracks. Just having concrete barriers lining much of the circuit does not make it a street circuit. Street tracks have shitty, bumpy surfaces, manhole covers and so on. For that reason, I don’t expect Perez to have the edge he had last week.

Not Enough Data

I am not going to get involved in any outright betting, or side markets at this stage. The top 10 market has eleven drivers odds on and it looks like we have McLaren, Alpine and Tsunoda fighting over the final two points scoring places, unless the top four teams have attrition. Last year there were three drivers not classified, Norris and Gasly as a result of a collision. There isn’t enough data to say what to expect in terms of attrition for this weekend.

One Bet

There is one bet which I will place ante post and that is in qualifying. We had a nice win with Leclerc to get pole last weekend and he looks to be worth supporting again. Ferrari had a front row lock out here last year and we know that the Ferrari has good one lap pace but suffers with too much tyre deg in the race.

We get this with some cars every season. Quick in qualy, slow in the race, and vice versa. It comes down to the tyres and how the car uses them. A car that is hard on the tyres tends to have its best performance in qualifying but suffers in the race. Others have better race pace thanks to being gentle on the tyres, which is not great for qualifying.

Red Bull Better In Race

The very best cars have the ability to be good in both qualifying and the race and this year that is Red Bull, but even they have a bias to being better in the race, and that is where the points are scored. Ferrari have a quick car that is too hard on the tyres but it is competitive in qualifying. The main concern, outside of Red Bull’s performance, is the Ferrari upgrade.

If you have a car that is losing out on race pace thanks to being too harsh on its tyres, you might want an upgrade package to address that issue. My worry is that Ferrari may be about to sacrifice some qualifying pace for improved race pace.

However, Leclerc is still a beast over a single lap, probably the best on the grid at extracting everything the car has to give. When it comes down to a tenth or two, the driver can make the difference. He is worth backing but not to huge stakes.

2023 Miami GP Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier @ 3.75 with Unibet, Betfred, SpreadEx, Betvictor

There will be the usual updates for qualifying on Saturday and the race on Sunday.

-JamesPunt