2023 Miami GP Qualifying Update and Tips

It is almost time for 2023 Miami GP qualifying and James Punt is on the case. His ante-post outright preview can be viewed here.

2023 Miami GP Qualifying

With the three practice sessions over we have a better picture of how things are panning out in Miami.

The first thing is that the re-surfaced track is playing its part. It is a very smooth surface, quite a dark tarmac which sucks up the heat, but like all new surfaces, it has been very green and lacking in grip. It is evolving lap by lap and is likely to do so right through qualifying.

Everyone will want to be running on track at the end of every session to get the most grip. A busy track can cause its own problems and traffic might get the blame for many sins.

The weather has behaved so far, and we don’t really want rain to wash off the rubber that has been put down. There are still showers in the forecast for qualifying, indeed a 65% chance of showers for the hour of qualifying. It doesn’t look like rain but it’s very humid.

Personally, I don’t think it will rain, it is showery rain and it has to fall on a very small bit of real estate to affect the track. The track is also very hot at 40+ degrees so any rain will evaporate very quickly.

Red Bull Strong

Red Bull, or I should say Verstappen look very strong. Max was 0.406 faster than Charles Leclerc in FP 3 and they both went out in the dying minutes so had the same conditions. Perez has not been on the pace this weekend and looks second best to his teammate.

The Ferrari update may have worked but it doesn’t look to have made too much impression, relative to Red Bull. I expect the 0.4 second gap to shrink, but it is hard to see it overturned. Carlos Sainz looks much more competitive than last week.

Aston Martin will be disappointed by having both cars outside the top ten in FP3. Not only that, but behind Alpine. Stroll may be unable to reach Q3 but I expect Alonso to get through. Stroll was marginal in Baku and with the Alpines looking better, he may get squeezed out.

Alpine Top 6 Contenders?

Alpine have had the start from hell to the 2023 season but they are too good to let that derail them. With proper practice sessions they have been able to get the car set up properly and get the most out of their recent upgrade package. They look like top 6 contenders. Ocon is 3-1 with Gasly in qualifying, 2-1 this weekend in the practice sessions and might just have the edge this afternoon.

Mercedes started the weekend well, first and second in FP 1. But like last year, they have gone backwards ever since. The very smooth track surface should suit them but they are saying that just making Q3 is not certain.

Head Scratcher

The real head scratcher is Bottas in 7th place in FP3. He set the time reasonably early in the session, so it wasn’t taking advantage of an improving track. They have struggled to get out of Q1 in recent races so surely Q3 is out of the question?

Haas look to be fairly competitive and I fancy Hulkenberg to make his third Q3 session of the season. The car looks well balanced and he has made the top ten in two of the three sessions. Magnussen is a bit closer as well which suggests the car is dialled in.

Alex Albon is once again putting himself in contention for a Q3 slot. The Williams doesn’t have great race pace, but it’s slippery and liking a lot of this track. He has only managed it once in the first four races, so we should not go overboard, but he did it in Melbourne and this track is not dissimilar.

The Alpha Tauri looks dreadful and McLaren are confusing.

2023 Miami GP Qualifying Selections

We are on Leclerc ante post for pole position and he looks the most likely to beat Verstappen but sadly, I don’t think he will. Max is now the 1.44 favourite and that is realistic. Charles is out to 5.25 and again, the margins in practice suggest his chances are slim. I really don’t fancy anyone else’s chances. A late shower might mix things up but that sort of alchemy is beyond me. There are three bets for qualifying which are backable.

2023 Miami GP qualifying tip: 1 point Hulkenberg to reach Q3 @ 1.83 with Ladbrokes

He has done it twice from the first four races and only flopped in Baku. Car looks good and he should be in contention.

2023 Miami GP qualifying tip: 1 point Russell to out qualify Hamilton @ 1.92 with Unibet

Russell is 3-1 up so far and looks the value here.

2023 Miami GP qualifying tip: 1 point Ocon to beat Gasly @ 1.92 with Unibet

Ocon is 3-1 in qualifying vs. his teammate in 2023 and has been ahead in two of the three sessions so far this weekend.

-JamesPunt