2023 Monaco GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2023 Monaco GP Raceday Update
Max Verstappen broke Alonso’s heart with a sensational final sector to take pole in qualifying, denying us a lovely winner in the process. Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 Monaco GP Raceday Update.
2023 Monaco GP Raceday Update
It couldn’t have gone much worse for the tips so far. The two bets for pole came 2nd and 3rd and the two qualifying match bets lost. Norris to beat Russell was galling as he never got a chance to complete his flying lap thanks to Leclerc blocking him in the tunnel.
The Ferrari driver got a three place penalty but Norris remained stuck in tenth. Lance Stroll didn’t even make it into Q3 in the Aston Martin which was very poor performance.
Our bet for the race win, Carlos Sainz started the weekend well, but has slipped back ever since. Sainz blamed traffic for slowing him on his final qualifying lap but the Ferrari didn’t seem to have the pace of Verstappen and Alonso. Sainz starts from 4th place and nobody has won from 4th here this century. A place is still possible but the win looks very unlikely.
Tough To Overtake
The problem with Monaco is that it is very hard to make up places. Overtaking is all but impossible and places are made up mostly by attrition or making up places around the pit stops.
In the turbo hybrid era, attrition has become less of a factor. Since 2014 the average not classified rate is just 2.5. In three of the last four years it has been just one.
Getting into the points from outside the top 10 is hard. Since 2014 a total of 18 drivers have started outside the top 10 and gone on to finish in the points. Not surprisingly, those most likely to do so have started 11th, 12th,13th and 14th. They accounted for 14 of those occasions. There is some hope for Perez as a car starting from the very back or the pit lane has made the top 10 twice, but never finished higher than 9th.
Red Bull will be starting from 1st and last place. The very same thing happened in 2018. Ricciardo started from pole and won, Max Verstappen started form the pit lane and finished 9th. There is one advantage form starting from the pit lane, you are less likely to get caught up in someone else’s accident on the first lap.
Today’s Race
This is the race where anything can happen, or you get a dull procession.
In the turbo hybrid era it has not been kind to pole sitters with just three winning in eight races. Those three wins came from 3rd place and the other two from 2nd place. That suggests the winner will be Verstappen (1.36), Ocon (42.00) or Alonso (4.50).
The odds on Ocon do look on the large side given the past record of drivers starting third. Ocon got his only F1 win in Hungary 2021 in a very bizarre race which started in the wet, saw a first corner pile up and Ocon took the lead at the restart and stayed there. The Hungaroring being another track where overtaking is hard.
Driver’s Track
We have five teams in the first five places on the grid. The driver makes a difference here and it was a blinding final few corners and Red Bull’s extra straight line speed which got Verstappen 0.08 faster than Alonso. That he was the last man out in Q3 was also a plus as the track was getting faster lap by lap.
Verstappen is the 1.36 favourite and he has the easiest job to do. Keep the lead into the first corner and control the race from the front. The modern way to do this is to go slowly and bunch the field up to defend from any possible undercut.
The strategy for the cars near the front is straightforward. Start on the medium, switch to the hard for a one stop race. The hard tyre is durable enough to last a whole race and if we get an early safety car, do not be surprised to see at least some drivers stopping for hards and then running to the end without stopping.
Safety Car Likely
The problem with predicting strategies here is that the risk of safety cars is high and you don’t know when they may come. Teams at the back may well start on the hards and do what Ocon did in Baku. Run long and hope for a late safety car to make a cheap stop and pick up places that way.
Ocon didn’t get one, but it is a sensible plan for the cars at the back and even the midfield. Like Miami, those starting further back on the hards have the better strategy.
Those at the front would be concerned that starting on the hard compound would leave them open to getting jumped at the start. The golden rule here is not to give up track position at all costs as it is very difficult to get it back.
Higher Risk
A higher risk strategy would be to start on the soft to try and make up a place or two off the line and hope for an early safety car and jump to the hards for the rest of the race. The problem with this is that even with more grip off the line, it remains very difficult to get past anyone. The bottom line is that luck plays a big part as to if and when the safety car comes out as to whether you can get a benefit from it.
There was a lot of talk yesterday that it may rain for the race and that could mix things up. Wishful thinking from those who didn’t qualify well? maybe, maybe not. We have the classic clouds and rain in the hills above Monaco town but it has been a pleasant, warm and sunny day for the support races.
There are forecasts saying that the clouds are moving towards the sea and thus bringing the track into the firing line. It is far from certain however and it is said to be a 25% chance of rain at some point today but that drops to under 10% for the time of the race. There is some nasty stuff not too far away, so you never know.
Max Should Win
Verstappen should win the race, will win the race unless something strange happens. A mechanical failure, rare these days. A crash, quite possible on a track like this, especially if it rains. A collision, again, quite possible on a track like this.
The race from the start line to the first corner looks to be Alonso’s best chance to Jump Verstappen. The Red Bull had a few slow starts earlier in the season and Alonso is known to push hard on the first lap. The problem is that it is a very short run to the first corner. The pole driver just has to move to the right and take the inside line. Checkmate. It would take a really bad start for Verstappen to blow the lead.
It is a race that if Verstappen is to lose, something unusual has to happen. A torrential downpour, a first corner collision or a botched pitstop. Red Bull cost Ricciardo a win a few years back when he pitted and the team didn’t have his tyres ready. We were on him to win at 5.50, a disaster. It can happen and it makes 1.36 too short to be called value.
Alonso Odds Correct
Alonso’s odds of 4.50 look about right to me. He either needs to take Verstappen at the first corner or hope for good fortune. Ocon is the value bet given that the driver starting third has done well in recent years.
The Alpine doesn’t have the pace of the Red Bull or Aston Martin but a win for him would not be down to pace, just getting lucky. Being in the right place at the right time. He earned that chance yesterday.
2023 Monaco GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point e/w (1-2) Esteban Ocon to win @ 42.00 with Pokerstars
The points finish market is of some interest. It is hard for those outside the top 14 to make any impact on the top ten and even for those just outside, it may need the kind of attrition we don’t see that often anymore.
2014 and 2016 both saw 7 drivers not classified and there were 5 in 2017. Since then, it has been 1,1,1 and 3 last year. Lance Stroll started 13th in 2021 and finished 9th for Aston Martin and he will need something similar to spare his blushes this weekend.
He is not without a chance as the driver starting 14th has a 50% strike rate in the turbo hybrid era. Stroll has slower cars in front of him, which is not as important as usual, and his quick starts will be harder to produce here, but he is experienced in coming from behind. He is only a 2.10 shot to do it again and that’s not good enough.
Alpha Upgrades Working
We have Tsunoda backed for a top 10 and the Alpha Tauri upgrades do seem to have worked as Nyck De Vries starts from a season best 12th. Can he rise to the challenge of being told that his drive is under threat by scoring his first points of the season at Monaco? He is tempting at 5.00 but that may be too many eggs in the same basket.
The last bets are for fastest lap. It is not a market I often play in as it is a bit random. The idea here is that the drivers nearer the back of the field should be starting on the hards and finishing on the mediums, or even the softs if they leave it late to stop. Lance Stroll has a quick car and starts in the zone where the hard/soft strategy fits.
2023 Monaco GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Lance Stroll to set the fastest lap @ 41.00 with Hills, LivescoreBet
In the last three races here, the fastest lap has been set by a driver starting outside the top four. Pierre Gasly did it from 8th in 2019 and he starts 7th today, just far enough back to make the hard/soft strategy attractive. The Alpine has shown some good pace this weekend as they continue to develop the car race by race.
