2023 Newbury Lockinge Meeting Saturday Tips – DS
2023 Newbury Lockinge Meeting Tips
So York is now finished and we went ever so close to landing a whopper on Friday. Maries Diamond was chinned on the line at 40s but our other two bets didn’t feature. Bellarchi was outclassed but Glenlaurel ran better than it looked and I remain convinced she has a pattern win in her at a mile or maybe further. We have top table action on ITV this Saturday, check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Newbury Lockinge Meeting Tips below.
1.50 Newbury – Carnarvon Stakes (Listed)
I’m puzzled to see Rumstar as big as 18/1 for this Listed sprint. Johnny Portman’s charge owes us nothing after winning for us at 16s on his final run of last season. That was a 5f Newmarket G3 and it earned him a rating of 106. It means he has to improve a fair chunk to beat the fav Noble Style (rated 117) but apart from him, only Aesop’s Fables is rated higher at 110.
His trainer went ever so close to landing a big punt here on Friday with Sweet Reward, an encouraging sign that his horses are hitting form. Rumstar went close on his debut last year so he goes well fresh and he’s by Havana Grey, a sire that has already had a heap of 3yo winners this season.
Good/good to firm ground is absolutely fine and Hector Crouch has a good record when riding for Portman (7/50 with 16 top 4s). At odds of 18/1, Rumstar should go close, once he is fit for his seasonal bow.
2023 Newbury Lockinge Meeting Tips: Rumstar e/w @ 18/1
2.05 Newmarket – Aspall Cyder Handicap (Class 4)
Paul and Oliver Cole’s horses are in great form at the minute. They’ve had 3 winners and six places from their last dozen runners and She’s Hot represents them in this 3yo only handicap. This consistent filly had an excellent Juvenile campaign. In seven starts she finished out of the first two just once, when beat 6L into 9th by Meditate at Royal Ascot.
She won two races, a maiden at Ffos Las (7f gd) and an 8.5f Novice at Wolves. The form of either of those races isn’t earth shattering but she did get to within 3.5L of the 97 rated Sparkling Beauty in a class 2 contest at Goodwood which isn’t bad form.
On her return to action at Brighton connections tried 10f for the first time. The fact she was keen early didn’t help her stay the trip and this drop back to a mile should be much more up her alley. Luke Morris was narrowly beaten on his only previous ride on this filly so he knows her well he has a solid record when riding for Fitri Hay (12/100 with 44 top 4s). At odds of 20/1, She’s Hot is the e/w selection.
2023 Newbury Lockinge Meeting Tips: She’s Hot e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
2.25 Newbury – Al Rayyan Stakes (Group 3)
Just the seven run and at the time of writing none of them are bigger than 12/1. Yibir is a short price considering he has won just one of his last four, though on ratings he is the one to beat. Haskoy’s run in the St Leger was boosted on Friday at York and with Frankie on board he looks a danger. The first time tongue tie is a slight worry though. Old Harrovian could be the fly in the ointment after his two impressive all weather wins but his sole turf run was a shocker. A race best watched. No bet.
2023 Newbury Lockinge Meeting Tips: No Bet
2.40 Newmarket – Aspall Handicap (Class 2)
Hayley Turner ended our drought on Wednesday aboard Scampi at York. She then denied us a big winner with Point Lynas with her only ride on Thursday. She rides Ararat here on handicap debut for David Simcock and the son of Kodiac could go well.
He was gelded during the winter after finishing second in two of his three 2yo starts. At Yarmouth (6f gd/sft) he was 4L behind Zoology and then in November at Wolves he was 2.5L behind Tough Enough. A poor effort over 7f at Redcar was sandwiched between those two runs and the assessor awarded him an opening mark of 77.
Harry Magnus was 3L behind Ararat at Wolves and he won a handicap off 80 on his return. Zoology is now rated 93 and was 4th in the G3 Greenham last month. Proverb was 1.5L back in 3rd in that Yarmouth heat and he is now rated 104 and a Listed winner. That initial mark of 77 for Ararat looks a bit generous when you look at that Yarmouth form so at odds of 25/1, he is the e/w selection.
2023 Newbury Lockinge Meeting Tips: Ararat e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)
3.00 Newbury – London Gold Cup (Heritage)
I pointed out that Silver Sword would be interesting off a mark of 82 in our Wednesday York preview. Empress Wu admittedly let down the form a bit but he also has form behind Military Order. An easy Southwell win on his return was a perfect prep for these stormier waters and if he handles the quick ground, he could go very well at 12/1.
At huge odds, Raintown could surprise a few with a big run for Stan Moore and Georgia Dobie. By Outstrip, this gelding won three times last year on the all weather. A maiden win at Lingfield (8f) on his third run was followed by a win off 71 at Wolves and then he signed off for the season with a neck win in a Lingfield handicap off 77 (10f). He returned at Goodwood earlier this month off a mark of 80 and ran better than the bare result suggests.
Luke Morris could never get a clear run and I’m not sure the ease in the ground suited him either. He ran through the line well enough over the 8f trip and Moore was probably just using the race to get him ready for this much bigger pot. He’s 3lbs wrong at the weights but with Georgia Dobie’s 3lb claim he’ll be racing off his correct mark of 79. The bookies are writing this lad off on the back of his last run but upped in trip and on faster ground, Raintown is worth chancing e/w at odds of 50/1.
2023 Newbury Lockinge Meeting Tips: Raintown e/w @ 50/1 (5 places) nb
3.15 Newmarket – Aspall Handicap (Class 3)
I was on the verge of swerving this race but at 33s, Havana By The Sea might sneak into the money. This filly is by a top sire and she was a busy girl last season. She had eight starts, winning twice, and she ran a blinder on good ground at York in their big August Sales Race, 2.25L behind the winner Shouldvebeenaring (now rated 102).
Craig Lidster’s charge won last November off 77. Her next two starts off 87/85 were more than respectable. After a 2nd off 85 at Southwell in December she went on a break and her first run back came at Lingfield off 85. She was bumped early, she was kept extremely wide but she ran on strongly under a considerate ride in the closing stages. On that evidence 7f will suit and it is her first time back on quick turf since that excellent York effort. At odds of 33/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
2023 Newbury Lockinge Meeting Tips: Havana By The Sea e/w @ 33/1 (4 places)
3.35 Newbury – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)
The big one and a more than decent sized field of 13 runners. The trip is a mile and at 33/1, Checkandchallenge could go well for Atzeni and William Knight. Yes, he disappointed on his seasonal bow at Newmarket in the G2 Bet365 mile but he shaped well enough and probably just needed the run.
He has already got form at G1 level, finishing a solid 4th, 2.5L behind Bayside Boy at Ascot last October in the QEII Stakes. Modern Games, the 7/2 fav today, was 1.25L ahead of him in 2nd so I’m not sure that Knight’s son of Fast Company should be 10x the price of that rival. He only has 2L to find with Light Infantry on his comeback run too, and that horse is just 11/1.
Fast Company’s progeny often relish slow conditions but this horse has already won on good ground. A few rain showers wouldn’t harm his chances but even if it stays dry, he has the ability to run a massive race. This contest should be run to suit Checkandchallenge and hopefully Atzeni can produce him late to land place money at the very least.
