2023 Newbury & Taunton Saturday Tips – DS
2023 Newbury & Taunton Saturday Tips
Three losers on Thursday. My theory on Imperial Ruler didn’t hold true and unfortunately, Appreciate It didn’t stay the trip. West Is Awake could only manage fifth, I think he found the ground a bit too taxing. Dave Stevos is looking for redemption tomorrow, his 2023 Newbury & Taunton Saturday Tips are below.
2.10 Taunton – Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed)
The first three races are all small field handicaps with very little of interest from an e/w perspective. This is another race with just six runners but at least with precious black type up for grabs, they should all be trying.
The 100/1 outsider Barbie Girlz can be safely discounted on what she has done so far. However, 25/1 shot Jaminska is of interest dropped back in trip. Trained by Jane Williams, this 4yo daughter of Manatee has yet to run a poor race under rules.
Second on her first two runs, she got off the mark on her final start of last season in a mares’ hurdle at Hereford (16f sft). She won that by 6L and the 2nd (who re-opposes here) and 3rd have both won races since.
Pleasing Comeback
She made her seasonal comeback in a handicap hurdle here over 19f last month. Racing off 105, she ran a very nice race to finish second and the handicapper put her up 6lbs for that effort. Apart from the top two in the betting, that’s arguably the best form in this race and with that under her belt, she could take another big step forward this afternoon.
This filly is certainly bred to be a black type horse. She is a half to a G2 winner, a G1 and G2 placed gelding and a Listed placed gelding that won 18 races between them. Black type would be huge for her long term prospects as a broodmare so surely, she’ll be trying to get into the first three. We’ll probably need one of the market leaders to falter with just two places on offer but even so, odds of 25/1 are big enough to justify a small e/w interest.
2023 Newbury & Taunton Saturday Tip: Jaminska e/w @ 25/1
2.25 Newbury – Mandarin Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Certainly Red was on my shortlist for this but his two previous runs at Newbury were poor. One horse who definitely likes it here is the Alan King trained Notachance. This 9yo son of Mahler was well beaten at Exeter on his return to action last month.
The handicapper dropped him 3lbs to 127 for that effort so he is now 12lbs lower than he was for his last win at Warwick (29f sft) in January 2021. He has won here over timber and on his last two chase runs here he wasn’t beaten far at all off 130.
His course win came on good to soft and those other two decent efforts came on soft so any rain wouldn’t be a hindrance. In fact, if more fell than is forecast it would be a bonus. If Notachance is on a going day, he should outrun his odds of 20/1.
2023 Newbury & Taunton Saturday Tip: Notachance e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NB
3.00 Newbury – Challow Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Someone’s ‘0’ is going to go in this cracking renewal of the Challow Hurdle. After some (not all) of the G1 dross we were served up at Leopardstown in midweek it is refreshing to see nine going to post for this 20.5f G1.
Three horses come into this race with unblemished records under rules. Willmount, trained by Neil Mulholland to win two Doncaster bumpers last season, is the 2/1 fav. His owner moved him to Nicky Henderson and on his first outing for his new yard he hacked up in a Newbury (16f gd/sft) maiden hurdle.
A subsequent 118 rated handicap winner finished 21L behind in fourth but apart from that, the form looks very questionable. His pedigree isn’t hugely impressive but the lure of owning a P2P winning son of Blue Bresil was enough for his owner to splash out £340k for him. He’s obviously got ability but this will be the sternest test he has faced by a long way.
Solid Yardstick
Next best in the market is Captain Teague. Paul Nicholls’ son of Doyen has already established himself as a capable performer at G1/G2 level. Third in last year’s Champion bumper, he has already won and finished 2nd in Grade 2 Novice Hurdles. Ok, he got turned over by an unfancied Evan Williams’ horse last time at Cheltenham but I think that form will turn out to be pretty decent.
Johnnywho is also bringing a perfect record into the race. The son of Califet won a P2P, a bumper on heavy and a Novice at Carlisle. The horse he beat into second at Carlisle, Moon D’Orange, is very highly regarded and ran a huge race in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett trial at Cheltenham.
The question mark for Jonjo O’Neill’s son of Califet is the ground. All his form is on soft/heavy but his dam loved nice ground so there is hope he’ll be even better on it.
Battle Hardened
The most experienced and battle hardened horse in here is Lookaway. He has already had seven runs over hurdles, including in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle. The son of Ask ran a great race to finish 2nd off 132, giving 6lbs to the winner Iberico Lord. The form of his G2 Cheltenham win has taken a few knocks but this hardy front runner should not be underestimated at 6/1.
The biggest priced unbeaten horse is Farnoge, another front runner. The apparent Nicholls’ second string will be ridden by Bryony Frost and he is 3/3 under rules. He has won a bumper on soft followed by novices on heavy at Newton Abbott (17f) and good at Ascot (21.5f).
He had Excello 4.5L behind at Ascot and he has since won a C2 chase and is now rated 146 over fences. Better form than his unbeaten rivals? Arguably. 14/1 looks a big price, though he won’t get an easy lead.
Best Of The Rest
Masaccio is arguably unlucky not to be unbeaten over timber. He landed a Chepstow maiden on his return and was a nose away from following up under a penalty here last time out.
The Jukebox Man has won four of his five starts, including both hurdle runs at Ffos Las. They both came on heavy ground and his bumper runs came on soft. He’ll need to step up considerably but that isn’t impossible.
David Bass rides Nicky Henderson’s second string, Brave Jen. She is far from consistent but she stayed on really well to be beat a head here in a Mares’ Listed Novice over 16f last time out. It was a career best but it is hard to see her picking up more black type against the geldings.
What to Back?
Nicholls and Cobden have won the last three renewals of the Challow. Captain Teague is their representative this time but I’m going to take a chance on the second string, Farnoge. As was outlined earlier, his form is probably as good as, if not better than a couple of the market leaders.
Yes, he’ll face competition for the lead from Lookaway but the son of Camelot has already won over 21.5f so his stamina is assured. Maybe his job is to act as a pacemaker for his stablemate but I think he’s well worth his place here and at odds of 14/1, Farnoge is the e/w selection.
2023 Newbury & Taunton Saturday Tip: Farnoge e/w @ 14/1 nap
3.35 Newbury – Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Maybe the drop back to 22.5f around here can do the trick for Neon Moon. David Pipe’s charge has run with great credit at Newbury on both of his previous chase runs at 23.5f. He was beat 4L off 125 in March earlier this year when a late mistake cost him and then he finished 4th off 130, beat 12L, off 130 last month.
In that last visit it looked like he didn’t quite get home. He did win over 24f at Ludlow in October off 124 but that is not as much of a test as Newbury. All four of his hurdle wins came at between 20f and 21f so this trip will surely be more suitable.
My main worry is that he ran so well in the Swinley Handicap at Ascot last February off 125 that connections may well target that race again. That is a far more valuable race than this one so there is a pretty sizable chance that he won’t be ‘off’ today. However, he’s finished in the first four on both previous Newbury chase runs and in the hope that he does the same again, a small e/w interest is advised.
