2023 Newcastle and Curragh Saturday Tips – DS
2023 Newcastle and Curragh Saturday Tips
We have action on both sides of the Irish Sea this weekend. In the UK the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle is the feature. We also have Listed and G3 races at Newmarket but the fields are small and they aren’t really betting races. In Ireland it is Derby weekend at the Curragh with the big race on Sunday and the Pretty Polly on Saturday. Dave Stevos likes a few horses at big prices on Saturday, get his 2023 Newcastle and Curragh (and Newmarket) tips below.
12.40 Newmarket – Empress Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)
Just one race of interest for us today at Newmarket, the 6f Listed Empress Stakes. Restricted to fillies only, the one I like at a price is Neverstopdreaming. Trained by James Horton, this daughter of No Nay Never has had two runs. On debut at Goodwood she was given a gentle introduction and she finished off her race nicely for 4th.
The runner up, Indispensable, was 3l ahead of her and she reopposes today. She had the benefit of a run that day though and I can see the Horton filly getting a lot closer to her now. Neverstopdreaming headed to Pontefract for her next start and it resulted in victory. She only had a neck to spare over Soveraine (who flopped next time out) but she won more cosily than the winning margin suggests.
This filly still displayed some signs of greenness at Ponte but there is no doubt she has an engine. She is bred to be a black type filly, being by top sire No Nay Never and out of a full sister to dual Guineas winner Winter. Her opening mark of 75 may underestimate her ability and hopefully PJ McDonald can produce her late for place money at odds of 25/1.
2023 Newmarket Saturday Tip: Neverstopdreaming e/w @ 25/1
1.30 Newcastle – Northumberland Vase Handicap (Class 2)
This serves as a consolation race for those who fail to get into the Plate. It is a nice pot in its own right and with his horses starting to run well again, I’m going to take a chance on Cozone here for Matty Smith and Jake Coen. Smith also runs La Hacienda, the mount of Harry Davies, but I think his main aim could be the 16f Premier Handicap at Galway in a month’s time.
Cozone’s last start at 16f on an artificial surface came at Dundalk last November. He beat Lunar Power by a head off 80 and with Jake Coen’s claim, he is 1lb lower here. A week later he ran over 12f at the same venue and he stayed on well over that inadequate trip for 4th. A couple of maiden hurdle runs followed before he was given a three month break.
The son of Pour Moi made a pleasing return to action two weeks ago at Fairyhouse (13f gd). It wasn’t a bad run over too short a trip and he likely needed it. Cozone should be spot on after that outing and the step back up to 16f looks sure to suit. He’ll likely be ridden patiently from stall 11 and if Coen can thread a clear passage, hopefully he can go close at odds of 20/1.
2023 Newcastle and Curragh Tip: Cozone e/w @ 20/1 (4 Places) NB
2.05 Newcastle – Northumberland Plate Handicap (Class 2)
With Second Slip confirmed a non-runner, 19 will go to post in this 16f handicap. He might be getting a bit long in the tooth at 11yo but if Sir Chauvelin can repeat the form he showed on his last run of 2022, he is no forlorn hope here off an effective mark of 81.
This old boy has previous in this race. He has run in it four times, finishing 4th off 90 in 2016 and 6th off 98 the following year. In 2021 and 2022 he ran no sort of race but he was off for a year before his run in 2021 and he had been on the go without a break for the guts of 11 months when running in it last season.
This time Goldie seems to have targeted the race. He has had one prep run, a quiet effort over 13f at Ayr last week, and that ought to have blown any cobwebs away. With young William Pyle’s claim he’s effectively racing off 81, 7lbs lower than when beat 0.75L over 12f here in November and 7lbs lower than when winning at Musselburgh last August. It isn’t a race for maximum stakes but at 50/1, if Sir Chauvelin is on form he’ll outrun his odds.
2023 Newcastle and Curragh Tip: Sir Chauvelin e/w @ 50/1 (6 places)
3.25 Curragh – Pretty Polly Stakes (Group 1)
I thought Comhra was overpriced for the Coronation Stakes when she ended up a late non-runner. It must have been a minor issue because she now pitches up in this G1 and she will be taking on some decent older horses. However, she gets a 10lbs allowance from the older mares and that could well be enough to enable her to hit the frame.
The key to this daughter of Vocalised seems to be decent ground. Her sire is perhaps better known for producing mudlarks but this filly certainly enjoys good ground. Her two standout efforts by some distance came on two of her three outings on good ground. At Naas in a 2yo G3 she ran a massive race when staying on for second behind Meditate and she had Matilda Picotte half a length behind her in 4th.
Guineas Form
After two below par efforts on soft at the start of her 3yo campaign, she finally got good ground in the Irish Guineas. Rory Cleary held her up and found some traffic problems and she was arguably unlucky not to finish 2nd, and maybe even win. Meditate and Tahiyra were the only two horses to finish ahead of her, the winner 1.75l in front and a head behind Meditate.
The handicapper gave her a 10lb hike to 105 for that effort but I rated it closer to 110. I’m not sure she should be 4x the price of the other 3yo in this field, Never Ending Story, a filly who would prefer if the ground softened considerably. When I started studying this race an hour ago Comhra was 28/1, she is into 20s now but even so, at those odds she is still worth backing e/w.
