2023 Newmarket and York Preview & Tips – DS
2023 Newmarket and York Friday Tips
We have two days of quality action this weekend. Dave Stevos has already posted his ante-post fancy for the Cesarewitch on Saturday, check that out here. His 2023 Newmarket and York (and Chepstow) Friday tips are below.
1.35 Chepstow – Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2)
The opener on Friday comes from Chepstow, a 23.5f handicap chase for the old boys. The ground is currently described as good at the Welsh track but rain is forecast. It is due to be torrential on Friday so the chances are, conditions will be soft.
I usually enjoy betting on these races later on in the season. At this stage of the year many of the runners are having their first runs back and that makes things far trickier. On a busy day like today there are better punting opportunities elsewhere and I’m more than happy to just watch this race. No bet.
2023 Chepstow Friday Tips: No bet
1.50 Newmarket – Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3)
Like Chepstow, the ground is currently unseasonably quick at Newmarket. However, the latest weather forecasts show heavy rain for Friday morning at HQ so conditions are likely to soften considerably.
Easy ground would be a big unknown for the fav Inquisitively. His three runs to date have been on good to firm. He was very impressive when winning a Listed contest at York last time, confirming the promise of his Royal Ascot third behind Big Evs.
His sire, Ten Sovereigns, has already had winners on soft and heavy so there is a decent chance he will handle the ground if conditions ease.
E/W Claims
One of interest at bigger odds if the ground softens is Tears Of A Clown. Trained by Henry Candy, this filly has already got black type in the bag. She finished a close third behind Miaharris and Majestic Beauty in a Listed heat at Newbury (5f gd/sft) last time and those two fillies re-oppose here.
In that race Candy’s charge ducked slightly left at the start and as a result, she was trapped out wide with zero cover. She still managed to pull clear with Majestic Beauty inside the 2f pole but Miaharris was played late and she swooped in the last 50 yards to nail the two of them.
This daughter of Pearl Secret made all at Windsor on soft on her previous start. Her run at Newbury proved she could be ridden a bit more quietly and with likely pace setters Son Of Corballis and Zoulu Chief in here, hopefully she’ll be able to slot in behind them. I thought she showed a neat turn of foot at Newbury and if Trevor Whelan can time his challenge right, hopefully she can nick a bit more black type at odds of 22/1.
2023 Newmarket and York Friday Tips: Tears Of A Clown e/w @ 22/1 (4 places) NB
2.10 Chepstow – Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
The rain that is forecast for Chepstow will be right up Captain Teague’s street. The odds on fav was third in the Champion bumper on soft and his P2P and bumper wins both came on soft ground. Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race and barring accidents, Captain Teague should be his ninth Persian War winner.
The most likely challenger, if she is fit, is Della Casa Lunga. Trained and owned by Clive Boultbee-Brooks, this 5yo mare arguably has the best hurdling form in the race and she is proven on soft ground. Formerly trained in Ireland by Sam Curling, she got to within 1.75L of Sandor Clegane on her final Irish start at Punchestown (20f yld).
Solid Form
That horse finished a close third in the G1 Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham previously and is rated 141. Yes, Della Casa Lunga was in receipt of 9lbs but even so, she finished well ahead of the likes of Nucky Johnson (134) and Three Card Brag (138).
To be honest, I don’t know a whole lot about this trainer. He is apparently a multi-millionaire who made his fortune in property development and he forked out £150k for this mare at the sales. Looking at his record, he has had at least one winner returning from a break (Felicie Du Maquis-215 days) so he can get one ready and if this daughter of Champs Elysees is fit, she can outrun her odds of 14/1.
2023 Chepstow Friday Tips: Della Casa Lunga e/w @ 14/1
2.25 Newmarket – Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3)
Just seven runners in this G3 and it looks like a race in which the market principals will dominate. The value could lie with the progressive Chic Colombine if the rain comes but she is far too short for the blog. Another race to just watch, no bet.
2023 Newmarket and York Friday Tips: No bet
2.40 York – Finale Handicap (Heritage)
There is also rain forecast for York overnight, but not as much as at Newmarket or Chepstow. There should be soft in the description and maybe Knockbrex can go well for Sam James and Charlie Johnston.
He is one of three Johnston runners in the race and he looks the third string on jockey bookings. By Ulysses, he landed a Pontefract maiden (10f sft) on his seasonal return and he then ran a blinder behind Gregory (now rated 111) in a valuable Novice at Haydock (12f gd). He was conceding 6lbs to the winner and If Not Now (rated 102) in third adds more substance to the form.
Handicap Company
Johnston stepped his charge into handicap company next time out at York (12f gd/fm). He ran a nice race to finish 4th off 90, beat 2.25L by Chesspiece. I’m not sure the 3yo enjoyed the fast ground because he ran poorly on good to firm the next twice at Ascot and Newmarket. It was much more like it back on soft on his penultimate run at Ayr (10f) where he finished third, beat 5L off 88.
Last time out at Thirsk Knockbrex appreciated the step back up to 12f. He was beat 2.25L into fourth, outpaced 3f out, hampered 1.5f out, then staying on nicely when in the clear. There’s stamina in his pedigree and soft ground is fine for him, so this could be an ideal trip. His stablemate Dreams Adozen made all last time so hopefully he goes forward and gives Knockbrex a nice pace to aim at. 25/1 looks a big price on the back of that Thirsk run and he is worth backing e/w at those odds.
2023 Newmarket and York Friday Tips: Knockbrex e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)
3.00 Newmarket – Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
With the ground now on the easy side, Matilda Picotte is the one to beat here. She was priced up at 6/1 earlier this week but that has long gone. Kieran Cotter’s star filly absolutely spreadeagled the field at Doncaster (7f gd/sft) last time out to land her first Group 3.
Connections now step back up into G2 company and she is back at a track she loves. Her two previous runs on the Rowley course saw her finish a gallant third in the 1000 Guineas and she hacked up here over 6f on her final juvenile start.
This daughter of Sioux Nation stays 7f well. She is all about speed though and she usually gets her rivals out of their comfort zones after a couple of furlongs. She gets 5lbs from Audience and Chindit today so her rating of 112 puts her right in the mix on the figures.
Oisin Murphy described her as a push button ride after Doncaster and if she is on top form, I think she makes all here. Not a betting race for me but hopefully, Matilda puts her rivals to the sword.
2023 Newmarket and York Friday Tips: No bet
3.15 York – British EBF £100,000 Final (Class 2)
Yippee, another sales race. The money came late for Cuban Slide in last week’s Auction race at Newmarket but he tried to chase a crazy early pace and then paid the price in the closing stages. They say God loves a trier so we’ll have another go with Straight A in this £100k race.
Trained by Harry Eustace, Hayley Turner takes the ride, her only one on the card. She’s been in the plate for all but one of this fella’s five runs, including his novice win at Yarmouth (6f gd/fm).
I think it was tactics rather than the ground that caused his poor run next time at Donny (7f sft) and he ran much better under a quieter ride when beat just over 2L in a valuable nursery over this C&D on his penultimate run.
Ticking Over
I’m not sure he was trying too hard last time out at Thirsk (8f gd) in a £5k handicap. I’d imagine it was a run to keep him ticking over for this race. Everything in his pedigree suggests soft ground will suit him but if the rain doesn’t come, he will be fine on good ground too.
Hayley Turner is 17/102 with 27 Top 4s when riding for Eustace and she is 6/54 with 15 top 4s for the owner. His best run came when competing for a big pot over this C&D, hopefully the £50k first prize today is enough motivation for him to do the same again. Grey Cuban, who we backed last time at Doncaster, is an obvious threat but he is single figure odds this time. At 28/1, I’d rather be on Straight A each way.
2023 Newmarket and York Friday Tips: Straight A e/w @ 28/1 (5 places)
3.35 Newmarket – Old Rowley Cup Handicap (Heritage)
Another heritage handicap for 3yos, this time over 12f. It is an open looking race and it looks like it’ll be run at a decent pace. Irish raider Satin likes to be up there early and Westerton, Davideo and Pivotal Trigger have made the running previously. On the likely soft ground stamina will be at a premium and the one I’ll take a chance on at double figure odds is Have Secret.
Trained by Richard Fahey, this horse is a proper hold up merchant. He has yet to race beyond 10f but on the evidence of his last three runs, this test could really suit him. The son of Havana Gold probably lacks the gears for 10f but he usually keeps on well all the way to the line and he handled soft ground well when a good 2nd at Goodwood three runs ago (10f sft).
I’m hoping that the front runners go too quick here and turn this into a proper test. Oisin Orr will hopefully drop Have Secret out early doors and produce him in the final couple of furlongs. Until he actually goes and does it, you obviously can’t be sure he stays 12f. However, he’s been shaping like he needs further and at odds of 14/1, it is worth taking the chance it will suit him.
2023 Newmarket and York Friday Tips: Have Secret e/w @ 14/1 (4 places)
3.50 York – Autumn Mile Handicap (Class 2)
Orbaan looks too well handicapped to ignore in this valuable handicap. David O’Meara’s charge won for us at Goodwood last year on good to firm but he acts on easy ground too. The 8yo son of Invincible Spirit has shaped as though coming back to form over 7f the last twice and he should relish this step back up to a mile.
He ran on very well on his last visit to York (7f gd/sft), beat just 3l for the win off 90. He wasn’t quite as good at Ascot last time but he was still only beat 5L despite finishing 11th. Orbaan has won over C&D on good to soft off 100 and he was only beat 2.75L here off 99 just over a year ago.
Ben Curtis gets his leg up on David O’Meara’s charge for the first time. He is 0/2 for the owner but he has a decent record when riding for O’Meara (8/47 with 11 top 3 finishes). This horse will be held up so as ever, luck will be required. If Curtis can chart a clear passage, Orbaan is more than capable of placing at the very least at odds of 12/1.
2023 Newmarket and York Friday Tips: Orbaan e/w @ 12/1 (4 places)
4.10 Newmarket – Fillies’ Mile (Group 1)
The overpriced one here has to be Caught U Looking. Noel Meade and Colin Keane team up with this daughter of Harzand and she is unbeaten on soft ground. She made her debut on good at the Curragh in June (7f) and she trailed in 9L behind Ylang Ylang. However, she looked a different filly next time on softer ground at Leopardstown.
In that 7f maiden she absolutely hosed up. She had Stromberg 5L behind her in second and he is now rated 100 after two wins and a G2 fifth at the Curragh. It was soft ground again back at the Curragh on her first try in stakes company and she stayed on strongly in the closing stages to take that 7f G3 by 0.5L from Sakti. Content was back in fifth and she won a G3 last weekend.
On the evidence of that last run, a mile should be right up this filly’s street. Her sire is a Derby winner so on pedigree, she should be even better now upped in trip. She is proven on soft ground so the more rain that falls, the better. Noel Meade landed his first Group 1 winner with Helvic Dream in 2021, he could add another one here with this filly. At odds of 12/1, Caught U Looking is the e/w selection.
